Getting the expected bounce now as the Dow gained 42 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative though. The Fed announcement came and went. Nothing new there. We were lower for most of the day and rallied in the last hour and a half. We're working off the oversold condition. GDP and the end of the month on Friday. I'm still leaning towards the OEX puts at some point next week if we hold up. Gold lost $13 and the XAU dropped 1 1/3. ABX and GG had fractional losses while NEM was unchanged. All were lower during the trading session. Volume was average for lately. My ABX calls are still underwater. The dollar was higher today. I am getting a buy signal from the Gold/XAU ratio and the gold shares are still oversold. However, I cannot hold on to this trade forever and should be out by the end of the week. Unless Friday is a huge up day for gold and I don't see that happening at the moment. Mentally I'm doing OK. Is it possible that the decline is over here? Maybe but I'm thinking that it isn't. The summation index is still pointing down but the stock indices are oversold technically. So there are some crosscurrents. Obviously the ABX call trade was a mistake on my part at this point. I'll need to take care of that before I move on to the OEX.

Could not hold on to the gains again as the Dow lost 2 points. We were up over 80 at one point during the day. Volume was average and the advance/declines were negative. Seems as though the market wants to head back to the downside. Waiting on the Fed tomorrow. Oversold still and now staying there and that isn't a good sign. Getting short on a bounce is the plan for the OEX at this point. Gold was up a couple of bucks but the XAU lost a point. ABX, GG and NEM all opened lower, came back to have nice gains and then gave them all back to finish around unchanged. Volume was light to average. The dollar had gains on the day. My ABX calls are still negative and will get stopped out if we have a negative day tomorrow. This doesn't look like a very smart trade at this point. But we'll see. Stranger things have happened. The gold shares are very oversold and have yet to get a bounce. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. I need to be looking at exiting the ABX call trade this week. I'll have to be out at the first bounce. It just doesn't have the feel of something that is going to work out. We'll see if the Fed announcement can get things going one way or the other.

A slight bounce today as the Dow gained 24 points on lighter volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were higher for most of the day but then sold off in the last hour. Still oversold here so I would expect some more upside at some point this week. Fed meeting starts tomorrow and then the rate announcement on Wednesday. I'd expect tomorrow to be a day of waiting around but I could be wrong. OEX puts at some point seem to be the play. Gold was up $6 but the XAU fell 1 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on good volume. The dollar was little changed. I left in an overnight order for some ABX calls and it got filled. It's already in the red. The stop-loss order has been placed. This could just be a mistake as the gold shares are showing me nothing at the moment. This is supposed to be a quick trade and I will most likely give it until the Fed announcement. The technicals on the gold shares are oversold and a bounce is due here as well. Unless it doesn't happen of course. So I'm giving it a couple of days and then we'll see what happens. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. So another trade is underway and I'm wondering if I should have just waited to get some OEX puts instead? I still plan on getting some, perhaps later this week. On to tomorrow.

Continuing to the downside as the path of least resistance is lower. The Dow lost 217 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 4 to 1 negative. We should see a bounce early next week. It may be an opportunity to get short. But it won't be easy. Oversold here and playing the bounce could be tricky. I think that I will wait to get some OEX puts as the McClellan oscillator tries to head back up to the zero line. Gold lost $13 on the futures but the XAU only fell 3/4. Perhaps getting some gold shares calls as a flight to safety will be the play. ABX, GG and NEM all ended the day where they started after selling off, then rising for nice gains and finally falling back again. Volume was heavy. The dollar was off a bit. I'm thinking about getting some gold share calls but will have to review things over the weekend. The XAU is oversold as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept long enough. Volatility has picked up and that has to be taken into consideration going forward. The market environment has changed. There's still 4 weeks to go in the February option cycle, so there's plenty of time to do something. We did break the uptrend line in the S&P 500 today that was in place for 6 months. Perhaps the market is concerned with what President Obama has been saying about the banks lately or maybe it's the concern over Ben Bernankes reconfirmation as Fed chief. You can't argue with the price movement though. There's lots to ponder over the weekend. It's Friday afternoon and time to relax for a while.

To the downside as the Dow dropped 213 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative. Summation index heading lower. The downside action was long overdue. So where do we head from here? My thinking short term is that we should stabilize now. Obama rattled the markets with his talk of banking regulation today. It won't happen overnight. We're getting short term oversold now. It may be time to short the rallies. Volatility has returned. Gold lost ground again, off about $10 and lower in the aftermarket. ABX and GG down over a buck each. NEM off 2. Volume was heavy. Oversold here now for sure. Not sure if getting long is a good idea because we have broken some long term support. However the gold/XAU signal is about to be triggered so I will have to ponder things. Volume picking up to the downside isn't a good sign though. Tough game. Mentally I'm tired, did not sleep enough but that will change. We're almost at some short term support for the overall market. Bounce and then a fall? Perhaps but that's just a guess. If the summation index remains to the downside, then OEX puts have to be seriously considered. Gold fell today and the dollar was little changed so perhaps there is something bigger going on there. No doubt that money is leaving the gold shares though. Support has been broken. One day left in a short week.

We saw some downside today as the Dow was off 200 points early. We ended the day with a loss of 122 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. So we gave back all we made yesterday. It's been a down, up, down market here and tomorrow will be important. If we head back down it could signify the end of the rally. The summation index has turned around again. We are also not making it through the longer downtrend line on the S&P that has been in place for quite a while. Since 2007 to be exact. So we are at an important moment in time. Gold got clobbered today, off over $25. The XAU fell 6 2/3. ABX off 1 3/4, GG and NEM down over 2. Volume was heavy. We've broken through the weekly uptrend line on the gold shares that's been in place since July. The trend is now down. The dollar had a good day in a flight to safety in my opinion. So perhaps the game has changed for gold. Time will tell but there is no reason to get long the gold shares at the moment. They will fall with the broader market. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep enough. Meetings again today took me away from the normal market routine and I have an early appointment tomorrow as well. But that should be it for the distractions for a while. It looks like we may finally have hit an inflection point for the markets this week. There will be opportunity and I'll try and take advantage of it.

We start the shortened week with a gain of 115 on the Dow, reversing Fridays price action. Volume was light to average and the advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We still haven't broken through the longer term downtrend line convincingly but that could change this week. No OEX trades for now but I have noticed that the premiums on the puts are relatively higher than the calls. I'm leaning to the downside here. We'll see. Gold was up $5 and a bit more in the aftermarket. The XAU rose a point or so. ABX was off a bit on the day, while GG gained 1/2 and NEM 3/4. Volume was light. The dollar had a good day and gold was higher anyway. Perhaps due to the worldly unrest over the weekend. Whatever the reason, we are right at the uptrend line in place since last July on the gold shares. Will it hold? That is the question. It would be a good place to get long, if it does hold. I'm not so sure though, so I'm staying out for now. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept good. 5 weeks on the February options, so there is no rush to do anything. Another meeting tomorrow so I won't be in the usual market mode. This could just be a wait and see week for me. No solid market themes that I can detect here but that certainly doesn't mean that there aren't any. I'll check things overnight and go from there.

The Dow dropped 100 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. Downside here is overdue. The summation index turned lower today. OEX puts could be the next trade. We'll see. I'd like to see some sideways movement before we head down. That would be the ideal scenario. I'll check things out over the weekend. Gold lost $12 today and the XAU fell 3 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM were all down around a buck on average volume. The dollar was stronger today. If the overall market falls, so will the gold shares. We are right at the longer term uptrend line and it doesn't look like it will hold. The weekly charts now look bearish with this past weeks price action. I may take a look at the puts here as well. Mentally I'm feeling tired, have not been getting enough sleep. Monday after expiration is sometimes just the opposite of the preceding Friday. It's a holiday, so Tuesday will replace Monday. If we see some upside it could be time to start closely looking at the puts. For now it's the weekend and time for some much needed rest.

The Dow gained 30 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. Still grinding our way higher. That can't last forever. Expiration tomorrow. No good signals to trade for me here. So it's patience and the sidelines. Gold was up $6 but the XAU fell 1 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. The uptrend line since last July is still holding for the gold shares but I get the feeling it won't much longer. When gold itself rises and the gold shares don't show any gains, it's not a good sign. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. I was in a meeting most of the day and was not in my usual market routine. Same story tomorrow. We'll get through expiration and go from there.

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 53 points. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive and the volume was light. Uneventful really as the positive expiration bias is in effect. No OEX trades for now and there are no decent technical signals. Not overbought or oversold at the moment. Patience for now. Gold sold off early and then came back to be up $7 on the day. The XAU gained 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. The dollar was a bit weaker. The uptrend line from July remains intact for now. I do not anticipate getting long here but you never know. Mixed technicals here as well. Plus there is an extra week on the February options. So there's no rush to do anything here. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. We're moving through January and still grinding our way higher in the stock indices. Gold is somewhat moving sideways. I'm looking for the next trade but do not have any solid ideas at the moment. That will change in time.

Finally a bit of some downside today as the Dow lost 36 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow. I don't think that this is the start of anything big to the downside just yet. We have held at the uptrend line that has been in place since mid-December. We will move quickly to short term oversold after today and it is expiration week which usually has a positive bias. So we'll see. Gold lost over $20 today and the XAU fell 6 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM all lost around 1 1/2 on what goes for average volume lately. The dollar didn't really do much today and was lower most of the day. I don't have any gold share trades in the works at the moment. I'm leaning towards the puts if we break the uptrend line that has been in effect since last July. We are hovering around it at this point. Mentally I'm doing OK, considering yesterdays problems. I did follow my trading rules and I can take that positive away from the experience going forward. There isn't much I can do about lousy or non-execution by the brokerage. Next time I'll make the adjustment if the stop-limit doesn't get filled and just go out at the market. That doesn't make taking the loss any easier but at least I had the proper feel of what was going on with the trade. That's a good thing. 3 days until expiration and the sidelines is where I am and probably where I'll be.

Overbought and staying there as the Dow gained 45 points. Volume was light and the advance/declines were positive. Grinding our way higher but we will need to see some type of downside soon just to relieve the overbought condition at the least. The market has refused to sell off. It is expiration week so anything can happen I guess. Gold had a good day, up $12. However the gold shares did not move well. The XAU only gained 7/8. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher early and then closed with just fractional gains. The dollar was weaker. So everything was present for the gold shares to have a stellar day and they didn't. That's troublesome. When we were higher at the open I adjusted the stop-loss order on the ABX calls to insure a profit. Imagine my surprise when we traded through the stop-loss price, back and forth and my order wasn't filled. That hasn't happened to me in 15 to 20 years. I contacted my brokerage but they didn't do anything. Here I did everything that I was supposed to, trying to insure a profit and it didn't happen. There usually isn't a problem with stop-loss orders but for some reason there was today. Needless to say it was very frustrating dealing with a know-nothing customer service rep at the brokerage. The non fill cost me a profit. It happened to me with the gold share index many, many years ago. I eventually bailed out of the ABX calls for a 25% loss instead of a 40% gain. Not the way that anyone would like to start the new year. I could not hold the position any longer though. 4 days left and a buck out of the money. Technicals overbought. A good day for gold and the gold shares sell off after a higher opening. Ominous signs if you ask me. But anything can happen. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. So where do I go from here? I just had 3 chances for a profit on that trade and failed. I won't be blaming myself though. Lousy or non-existent trade execution isn't something that I can control. I did what I was supposed to today and for whatever reason it didn't work out. I'll bear this in mind going forward.

Well we finally got the employment report behind us. The Dow sold off but it wasn't a catastrophe and the market came back to finish up 11 points on the day. Volume was light and the advance/declines were positive. The market just keeps plowing higher. Summation index moving to the upside. The jobs report was worse than expected and we shrugged it off. It seems like a market that wants to go higher. Overbought here still and that won't last forever. We do have expiration week upon us next week and perhaps the positive bias will continue. Gold managed a $5 gain in the futures market but sold off a bit in the aftermarket. The XAU rose 2 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. The dollar sold off and I would have expected a much better move for gold today. It didn't happen. My ABX calls are slightly in the red. Never saw a pop to the upside to exit this trade. In fact it was a couple of ticks away from being stopped out at one point. It's a buck out of the money with just 5 days to go. I'll be looking to exit on Monday morning if we see some upside. My thinking is that we'll see some foreign selling of the dollar and buying of gold early Monday. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well or enough. The market is overbought and the technicals are at the tops of their channels. This condition can't go on forever. However the market continues to shrug off bad news and this implies higher prices. Gold is stopping at the 1140 level and will need to push through there for the ABX calls to show a profit. Or not. Things to ponder over the weekend. I'll view the charts and come up with a game plan for next week. It's Friday afternoon and time to unwind.

A slight push to the upside as the Dow gained 33 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. Overbought here but that doesn't mean there has to be a big decline if we get one. All eyes will be on tomorrows employment report. I can only guess at what the numbers will be. How the market reacts will be the key going forward. The market has tried to sell off since Mondays big gain but hasn't. We'll see. Gold lost some ground today, off about $3 and more in the aftermarket. The XAU fell 1 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on lighter volume. My ABX calls are right back to where I bought them. This has been an interesting trade with a couple of chances to get out at a profit. Now comes tomorrows news and golds reaction to it. ABX is the weakest of the group at this point. The relative strength has moved to GG. There's nothing to do now except wait for the employment report. I should bail out of this trade tomorrow unless there is a strong move to the upside. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Another day of hanging around as the Dow gained a point on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We are short term overbought. The summation index continues to head higher. It looks like the employment report could be the catalyst one way or the other at this point. I'm really not sure which way we will go here so there are no OEX trades before Friday. Gold had another good day, up $18. The XAU rose 4 3/4. ABX up 7/8, GG up 3/4 and NEM up a buck. Volume was nothing special. All these issues closed nowhere near their highs for the day. My ABX calls are back in the black. The daily technicals are overbought now. I really have to think about dumping these things tomorrow. Longer term looks positive but I don't know if I want to hold the calls into next week. Or even past tomorrow with the employment report looming. A lot to ponder this evening. Mentally I'm doing OK. So I'm holding a trade that is profitable with 7 days left in the January cycle. It's overbought but we all know when things get overbought they can stay there for a while. The overall market is short term overbought also. Decisions, decisions. The trades are never easy, win or lose.

The Dow lost 12 points today but we were off more for most of the day. Advance/declines were positive and the volume picked up a bit. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. Not exactly overbought yet but we're getting there. Might just be on hold until the employment report on Friday. No OEX trades for now. Gold was little changed but was up early. The XAU gained 2 points. The gold shares had fractional gains and the volume was nothing special again. We were lower at one point and I thought that I was going to be stopped out of the ABX call trade but we came back late in the day. The calls are back where I bought them. The dollar was up a bit. Here too we could just be waiting on Friday. I don't know if this trade will last that long though. I'll check things out tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK, could have slept longer. I guess it's a waiting game now. 8 days on the January options and my calls are out of the money. We did get some buying in gold yesterday as expected but I haven't seen any follow through. Not overbought yet so there is a chance that this trade will still work. However time is not on my side now and the possibility of getting stopped out looms large. If so it's on to the next trade regardless and I don't have any ideas for that at the moment.

It was a bullish start to the new year as the Dow gained 155 points. Volume was light but the advance/declines were over 4 to 1 positive. We'll have to see how the rest of the week progresses. Summation index heading higher again. Not overbought short term just yet so we could see some more upside near term. We'll see. Gold had a good day, up over $20. The XAU rose 5 3/4. All the gold shares were up at least a buck with GG leading the way, up 1 1/3. Volume wasn't anything special though. The dollar was weaker today. ABX rallied a buck but my calls are still in the red by a touch. That's the dilemma now. 9 days to go and even a one point move in my favor didn't do much. I don't know how much longer I can stay in this trade really. I don't know if I can wait until Fridays employment report. Not overbought yet short term for the gold shares but I didn't like todays action. I'll check things out overnight. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. It's the start of a new trading year and I'm feeling optimistic that it should go well. I'll be keeping an eye on gold overnight and we'll take it from there. No OEX trades just yet but we are near the top of the technical indicators and channels. Doesn't mean we have to drop though. We'll see what the second trading day of the year brings tomorrow.

It was a quiet day to the downside until the last half hour today. Then the bottom fell out as the Dow lost 120 points. Volume was light again and the advance/declines were negative. We needed to see some downside, technically and we got it. You really can't tell what will happen next since this was such a thinly traded week. My guess is that we will head back to the upside but I'll have to mull things over the long weekend. Gold was up $3 but the XAU was flat. I suppose it wasn't too bad for the gold shares considering the overall markets drop. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. My ABX calls are solidly in the red now and close to getting stopped out. Any downside on Monday will probably end this trade with a loss. The time premium continues to get sucked out of this trade. In retrospect they should have been dumped earlier this week and I could buy them back later if I chose to do so. It is however, a long weekend. We'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. The 2009 trading year has come to a close and it wasn't a good one for me. My trading account was down 21%, which was almost a repeat of 2007 when I lost 25%. I have made some adjustments to my trading rules and it will be up to me to stick to them. There were many opportunities through out the year but my trading decisions never panned out as planned. My management of the trades is where most of the trouble was. I'm working on it. It is the toughest game in the world. There are no excuses. I'll go over the charts this weekend and be ready for Monday morning. For now though it's time to take a break over the long weekend. I'll be looking forward to a better trading year in 2010.

Another day of the blahs as the Dow gained 3 points. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was extremely light. The market tried to sell off but came back. I really think we need to see some downside tomorrow or we will be starting out the new year lower. That's my guess. We'll get through tomorrow and go from there. Gold dropped $5 and the XAU fell 1 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. My ABX calls are now in the red. Looks like I'll hang on until next year unless they get stopped out tomorrow. Obviously, I should have dumped them earlier and then bought them back if I wanted to try it again. This trade still could work but it isn't looking promising at this point. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. Almost done with 2009 and it was a terrible trading year for me. I'll get the final details out tomorrow. Otherwise the market just isn't working off the overbought condition as it should. The break to new recovery highs has been on anemic volume. It isn't a positive at this point. On to the final trading day for 2009.

Another light volume exercise in waiting for next year as the Dow lost a point. Advance/declines about even again. I'm expecting some weakness and it will probably be soon. I don't think it's the beginning of anything big but we do have to work off the overbought condition of the market. Summation index still heading higher. Gold dropped about $10 today and the XAU fell 1 3/4. ABX and GG had fractional losses with ABX leading the way. NEM was flat. The volume was holiday light again. My ABX calls are back to break even. The technicals look like they are about to roll over so this could be another in the story of 2009 losing trades now. I have seen it time and time again this past year. There is no volume here though so there is still a chance that it will work in the beginning of the year. We'll see. The dollar was a bit stronger today. Mentally I'm doing OK. Perhaps I should have just waited until the new year to initiate this gold trade. The market seems even slower than usual for this time of year. 2 days left in 2009. I can't see any big rally until next week, if then. This has been a light volume rise and that is never sustainable in my opinion. So we'll see what happens.

It was a lackluster Monday as the Dow gained 27 points on holiday light volume. Advance/declines were about even. We're overbought here and I would expect some downside this week. There's not a lot of data out this week. And it's a short week. I probably should not even have an open position but what can you do? Gold was up 3 bucks and it really should have been more considering the events of the weekend. That's not a bullish sign. The XAU fell 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on very light volume. My ABX calls are still in the black but if we don't see some upside movement, the time premium will start to get sucked out of them. Plus if we start to get a drop in the overall market as I suspect, the gold shares will follow. So perhaps I won't be holding this position into the new year. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. So it's a short holiday week and you can't put much stock into what movement there is. Everyone is gearing up for the beginning of the year. My thinking was that there would be some who would want to position themselves in gold ahead of time but it doesn't look like it today. So I'll ponder things overnight and go from there.

Up another 53 points on this holiday shortened session. Volume was extremely light. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We're moving higher but it is hard to get excited when the volume just isn't there. It could be a fake out. Overbought now as well. Gold had a good day, up $10 but the gold shares did not follow. The XAU was up 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves on very light volume. My ABX trade is still in the black. I'm really going to have to think about this one over the long weekend. Light volume rallies are never a good thing and that's what we've gotten here. Perhaps it is just a sign of the holiday times but I'm not so sure. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. I'll check the charts over the weekend and take it from there I guess. Happy Holidays everyone.

Not much today as the Dow gained a point on very light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that is a positive going forward. Summation index heading higher. It's got everything but volume. However it is a holiday week. Gold was up $7 on a weaker dollar but was off in the Aftermarket. The XAU rose 5 1/3. ABX and NEM were up 1 1/4, while GG tacked on 1 1/2. Volume was light. The gold shares seem to have started to act better than the metal itself. That could be a good sign. Or not. Usually it is. The ABX calls I purchased are in the black. Now the question is what to do next. I'm leaning towards taking the profit sooner rather than later but I will have to think it over. I'll at least be holding on until next week. Mentally I'm doing OK but feel a bit tired. Shortened trading session tomorrow and I wouldn't make much of what happens. It's holiday time and the major players aren't around. So it's time to take it easy.

Continuing higher as the Dow tacked on another 50 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was light. It's a light volume rally and they can never be trusted. However we are in the favorable period for a Santa Claus rally. Summation index heading higher as well. We really need a high volume breakout of the trading range one way or the other to determine where we are heading. Gold lost another $10 and was lower in the aftermarket. The XAU was flat, off 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light to average volume. The gold shares were weak early and my open order for January ABX calls was filled. The stop loss order has been placed. I originally wanted to hold this trade into the new year but it seems like we have entered a listless period for the gold shares and I may sell them before the end of the year if they aren't stopped out. Or I may just sell them anyway. The dollar was up a bit today. The gold shares are still oversold. So we'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. Definitely feeling better than yesterday. 2 days to go this week and I don't expect any huge moves. Maybe some backing and filling going into Christmas. That's it for today. We'll see how the ABX trade works out.

A good start to the week for the bulls as the Dow gained 85 points. Advance/declines were more than 2 to 1 positive and the volume was light. Still stuck in the trading range though. I don't see any high volume breakout occurring one way or the other until next year. I could be wrong though and often am. I'd expect the market to drift higher for the rest of the week. Gold was hit again today, down $15 and lower in the aftermarket. The XAU held up well, off 1 1/2. ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM dropped 1 1/4. Volume was average. The dollar was higher today. The gold shares held up better than the metal itself and that could be bullish going forward for the gold shares. I still have an order in for some ABX January calls though I did adjust it down a touch on the price. The longer term uptrend line is holding for now and we remain oversold. Mentally I'm doing OK but I'm not feeling that well today. A short trading week this week and next. The sidelines isn't a bad place to be but traders will be trying to position themselves for the start of the new year. I'm still going to give the gold share calls a try if my order is filled. So we'll see what happens.

It was a relatively quiet expiration as the Dow gained 20 points. Volume was pretty good and the advance/declines were positive. Perhaps this is the beginning of the Santa Claus rally. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. Still stuck in the trading range though. I don't really expect a breakout one way or the other until next year. Gold was up another $5 and the XAU rose 2 1/2. ABX and GG were up around a buck and NEM gained over 1/2. Volume was good. We are at the area where the gold shares should hold up and rally. I will be looking at the gold share calls next week on any weakness. The options didn't move much today even with 1 point moves in ABX and GG. There is a lot of time premium in the prices. I'm leaving in my open order for ABX calls. If we don't hold up here than that trade will be off. The dollar was strong early and then fell back. We reached the 78 level which was the target in my opinion. Checking the dollar chart, there is a chance we could go to 80. However I am sticking with the plan for the gold shares at these levels for now. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. A holiday week coming up and I expect that things will slow down. It makes for tough trading. However I think we are at a point where perhaps taking a risk in the gold share calls is warranted. I'll check the charts over the weekend. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. There is work to do before Monday though.

It wasn't quiet today as stocks fell 132 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative. Perhaps it was expiration related or maybe just getting the selling done before the holidays. We're now back at the bottom of the trading range. I thought we would break to the upside but perhaps I'm wrong again. Not oversold on a short term basis yet but we're getting there. Closed near the low of the day and that isn't positive. Gold got clobbered and took out the recent low as the dollar had a big day to the upside. The precious metal lost $28 and continued lower in the aftermarket. The XAU lost about 9. ABX down 1 1/2, GG off 2 and NEM lost 3. Volume was heavy. We have reached the longer term uptrend line that I was waiting for. Will it hold? Doesn't look like it with todays action. I have an order in for some January ABX calls and I'm leaving it open until it gets filled. The dollar has just about reached the 78 level which is where I believe it will stop. If it doesn't then I will have to readjust my thinking as to what is going on here. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I really don't think that today is the start of any big sustained decline. I think we'll get a Santa Claus rally and good money flow input at the beginning of next year. That's my guess for now. But the market can and will do anything. We'll see about expiration Friday and go from there.

The Dow dropped 10 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were higher for most of the day until the Fed and then we fell. Really not much is happening here as the trading range market continues. Just how long is this going to go on I wonder? The Fed said nothing new and sideways we go. It will be interesting once we break out. When that is, is anybodies guess. With a holiday week coming up I don't see any change of the current scenario until next year. I could be wrong. Gold bounced, up $13. The XAU rose 2 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains with ABX leading the way. The relative strength lately has been with ABX. Volume was nothing special. I did not try the December gold share calls today and will wait for the January options. The dollar sold off early and then came back. I would really like to see the gold shares return to the longer term uptrend line for me to place a trade. There is no rush but I'll be keeping an eye on them. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep long enough. So it's a waiting game for now. Expiration in 2 days and then a short week. I'd expect volume to dry up but who knows? My next trade will be some gold share calls unless there is a solid signal in the OEX or a high volume breakout from the trading range.

The Dow lost 49 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were due for some type of pullback with the short term overbought condition. Now it's a toss up as to which way we go from here. Fed tomorrow and I wouldn't expect any surprises. But you never know. I am not going to try any OEX trades with 3 days left and a neutral technical condition. Gold was flat today and the XAU lost over 3 points. ABX dropped 3/4, GG lost 2/3 and NEM fell a buck. Volume was light. I did place an order for GG December calls but it wasn't filled. Gold held up well today despite a very good up move in the dollar. I think that perhaps a short term gold share trade could work. The technicals are very oversold on a daily basis for the gold shares. A bounce is due. There's only 3 days left though. I might try to do it again early tomorrow morning. I have to mull things over tonight. It's risky. Mentally I'm feeling OK, could have slept more. The question is whether to try this gold trade or not. I'll monitor things overnight and go from there. I still like the January gold share trade and may just look for an opportunity there. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

We started the week off with a gain as the Dow rose 29 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We're getting short term overbought here but that doesn't mean that we can't go higher. We are at the top of the trading range. Will we break out to the upside? Stay tuned. Fed on Wednesday could be the catalyst. Or not. That is the type of market environment at the moment. Perhaps I'll try the OEX puts but I doubt it. Gold was up $4 and the XAU rose 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. Oversold here but still not at the rising trend lines. I don't think I'll be trying anything for December but I'll have to see what tomorrow brings. Running out of time for sure but it is possible that the Fed will be a catalyst here as well. The dollar was a bit weaker today. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept pretty good. So we have 4 days left which is enough time for a short term trade, which really isn't my best type. It would probably be best to stay on the sidelines but we'll see. I still am in the mindset of getting some January gold share calls. The technicals are oversold on a daily basis, neutral on a weekly basis. Let's see what happens on Tuesday.

We continued higher today as the Dow gained 65 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. It's been a lackluster move to the upside so far. Expiration week coming up and it could have the usual positive bias. We are still in the trading range though and moving back up towards the top of it. With the holidays fast approaching I can't see any big moves coming up in the near term but anything can happen I guess. Gold futures lost $6 and continued lower in the aftermarket. The XAU fell 3 2/3. ABX off 1 1/2, GG off 1 and NEM off 1/2. Volume was light. Nobody was rushing in to buy as was the case just a couple of weeks ago. The dollar had another good day and closed the week near the highs. We are getting close to an uptrend line for the golds shares. I'll be getting some GG or ABX calls when we get there. I'm not ruling out the Decembers if we get there early next week. But most likely I'll be going out to January. There is no guarantee that the uptrend line will hold but we should see at least a bounce there. So we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The Fed next week will be the main focus and that isn't until Wednesday. Trading the December options will be risky. I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. There may or may not be opportunity. We could just move sideways as well. But it's the weekend now and time for a rest.

The Dow continued to the upside with a gain of 68 points today. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. We opened higher and traded sideways for the rest of the day. So it continues. The major averages are stuck in a range and we wait for the breakout. My guess is that we're going to move to the upside eventually. But it is just a guess. The medium term indicators are move oversold than overbought. Gold stabilized, was up $5 today and stronger in the aftermarket. The XAU was only up 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves both ways on light volume. I still may try something for December but am leaning towards the January gold share calls. The dollar was a touch higher today. The gold shares are oversold here but I'd like to wait for next week to do something. We'll see. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. 6 days until the December expiration, so the risk is high. We've got the Fed next week as well. I don't expect any surprises but you never know. We could also just meander around in the trading range as we have been. We'll see what happens Friday and go from there.

A bounce to the upside as the Dow gained 51 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We traded down to the low end of the sideways channel and have bounced up. The market has been in this trading range for almost a month. Once it breaks out one way or the other, it should be a big move. It's probably best to wait and see what happens. Once we break out then it's just a matter of getting on board. Gold was down $20 on the futures but came back in the aftermarket. The XAU rose 4 1/2 points. ABX up 3/4, GG up 1 and NEM up 1 1/3. Volume was average. I did leave in an overnight order for some December ABX calls but it wasn't filled. We'll see what kind of bounce we get here. The dollar was a bit weaker on the day. We're oversold on the gold shares. I still like the January calls and will be getting some here soon. Next week could be the best time but we'll see. It's possible I'll try Decembers again if things line up right. Mentally I'm feeling fine. One of the problems to deal with here is that things could really slow down at the end of the year. After next weeks expiration the volatility could shrink. That won't help the option prices. I don't know what will happen but it would not surprise me if we moved into a lackluster trading pattern. So that must be considered going forward as well. We'll see if we can build on todays gains tomorrow.

It was a downer Tuesday as the Dow lost 104 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. Still in the sideways channel but near the lower end. Will we break down here? I don't know. Getting short term oversold but not there yet. Maybe it's a chance to get long the December OEX calls. Maybe not. I'm indecisive here so unless there is a solid signal, I'm on the sidelines. Gold continues to fall, down $20 and dropping in the aftermarket. ABX down almost 2, with GG and NEM off 1 1/2. Volume was average. The dollar had another good day. Oversold here for sure and I'm thinking about perhaps playing the bounce that will inevitably occur. However I am going to buy some January gold share calls when the XAU hits my downside target. We are almost there already which concerns me. But I'm going to give it a shot. Next week would be ideal but if we get there this week, I'll be buying some calls. Mentally I feel OK, slept well enough. My thinking is that the decline or sideways movement we are seeing now is setting up for a January rally. But that's a guess. The market will go where it wants. I may leave in an overnight order for some gold share calls. I'll be checking the charts tonight.

The Dow was up a point today as we closed about in the middle of the days trading range. In other words, indecision. Volume was nothing special and the advance/declines were positive. The S&P along with the NASDAQ were lower. We will break out of the trading range eventually and it's probably a wise move to wait until that happens. Which doesn't mean that I will of course. However I have no OEX trades in mind right now. Gold continued lower, off $5 on the futures and lower in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 3 points. ABX and NEM had fractional losses after being lower early. GG lost about a buck. Volume was pretty good again. I'd expect a bounce here soon but don't think that I'll try and play it. I'm going to look at the January calls. That should be the next trade as of now. But you never know. The dollar bounced around today and closed lower. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 9 days in the December option cycle. I'll look things over again tonight but I don't see any decent signals at the moment. Not a lot of data out this week. We've got the Fed rate decision next week. So it still looks like a time to be patient for now. We'll see.

An interesting day as we opened higher, gave it all back and then some, only to return to the upside by the end of the day. The Dow gained 22 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. The employment report was much stronger than expected which caused markets to move with volatility. We are still in a sideways trading range with regards to the S&P, even with all the gyrations today. No OEX trades still. I don't have any good signals yet. Perhaps before the December expiration. Gold got hammered as the dollar rose on the employment news. Gold lost about $50 and continued lower in the aftermarket. The XAU fell 10 1/2. ABX off over 4, GG and NEM fell 2 3/4. Volume was heavy. I still like a January trade in the calls here and will be looking for an entry point in the next 2 weeks. Perhaps the game has changed here for a while. I'll check the charts over the weekend. Gold did go parabolic and a drop was to be expected. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well. Now the employment report is out of the way. The overall market has been stronger than the Dow and that could be a sign of good things to come on the bullish side. We will break out of this trading range eventually one way or the other. I'll be looking over the charts this weekend and take it from there. For now, it's time for a break.

Opened higher and closed lower and that isn't really a bullish sign as the Dow lost 86 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. We are still moving sideways. Tomorrows employment report could be the catalyst to get us out of this trading range. Or not. I have no OEX trades on my radar. We are not overbought or oversold here, just muddling along. Gold was up another $5 today but the XAU fell 4 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all down around a buck on average volume. The dollar was a touch higher. I'll get long the gold shares on a pullback. That is the game plan for now. No hurry though as we are very overbought here. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep enough. So was today a precursor of what the markets reaction will be to the employment report. Stay tuned. So far we haven't broken through the long term downtrend lines on the S&P. When we do it will be quite a rally but it hasn't happened yet. Perhaps at the beginning of next year but that is a guess. The market will go where it wants. On to tomorrow.

Kind of a sideways day as the Dow lost 19 points. The overall market was stronger. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive and the volume was light. Fed minutes were released but they were not a market mover. I think we're in a holding pattern until the employment report on Friday. I have no OEX trades in mind. Gold continues higher, up $12. The XAU rose 4 1/4. ABX was up almost 2, GG up over a buck and NEM was the laggard finishing flat on the day. The dollar was a bit higher. Gold has gone parabolic and the money just continues to flow there. The volume is really good on the rallies. How high can it go? Who knows? I think that I'll just get long the next time the indicators move toward oversold since they never really seem to get there. Perhaps. I do want to have some calls before the beginning of next year because my thinking is that the new year money will flock to the precious metal. I could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. The market and summation index have been moving sideways for a few weeks. Perhaps the employment report will break us out of the range. Some of the major indexes are also at long term resistance. If we move to the upside it should be significant. So we'll see what happens. The market also shrugged off the Dubai bad news and that is bullish. Perhaps the OEX calls are the play. I'll mull things over tonight.

It was a positive start to the new month as the Dow gained 126 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. The summation index continues to frustrate me as it is moving basically sideways. There's nothing I can do about that. Perhaps I should have realized that the money flow would be coming into the markets. The Dubai event was not sustainable to the downside. It's always easy to look back and say what you should have done. Doesn't matter. The markets keep moving along. Gold had a great day and crossed $1200, up 17 on the day. The XAU rose 9. ABX up 3 1/3, GG up 2 3/4 and NEM up 2. All on heavy volume. Missed that window of opportunity as well. But gold is so overbought at the moment that it can't end well when it does. But who knows? The dollar lost ground again. As oversold as the indicators are in the dollar, they are just as overbought for gold. I don't plan on doing anything there after todays action. Mentally I'm not feeling 100%. Could have slept better. It seems as though I am just waiting for next year at this point. That may not be the best plan of action. However I don't have a good feel for what's going on at the moment. I'm not going to press things. If there's a decent signal one way or the other in the December cycle, I'll act on it. Otherwise I'll wait it out.

The Dow gained 35 points to close out the month of November. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was light. So perhaps that is it for the fallout from Dubai. We'll see. I don't expect any big rally from here but you never know. Beginning of the month positive money flows should affect things for the next couple of days as we wait for the employment report on Friday. No OEX trades for now. Gold was up $7 today as the dollar lost a bit of ground. The XAU had a fractional gain. The gold shares were mixed with fractional gains and losses for ABX, GG, NEM. Volume was light. My next trade should be here but I would like to see some consolidation or pullback first. I'm also leaning towards going out to the January calls. Time will tell. Nothing doing for now. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. We're moving into December and I have pretty good losses for the year. There will be no miracle trades to save the day. I'm looking forward to the new year and a fresh start. I still may make another trade before the year ends but things will have to line up just right. I don't have any clear signals at the moment but that could change. On to tomorrow.

What was supposed to be a quiet holiday shortened session was anything but as the Dow lost 154 on very light volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The country of Dubai is threatening to default on its debt. World markets had a tough day on Thanksgiving and the US market mirrored that today. I don't know what it means for Monday but the summation index should be heading south after today. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend. Gold took a hit as well, down $18. The XAU fell 7 1/4. ABX and NEM dropped 1 1/2, while GG lost 2. Volume was light. All were off even more early. The dollar was higher but not as much as you'd expect with a flight to safety move. I'll need to look at these charts over the weekend as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK, trying to get some rest. But obviously with the recent Dubai development, there is much to do. Is this an opportunity to get long or is this the beginning of a long awaited sustained move to the downside? That's the question of the moment. I'm still going to relax for a couple of days and then see what happens Sunday night when the world starts up again. This is probably some type of opportunity. Taking advantage of it is the trick.

Another slow day as the Dow gained 30 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. Holiday tomorrow and a shortened session on Friday. It's a waiting game. I'm leaning towards getting some OEX puts with such light volume here lately. We'll see. Gold continues it's climb to the sky, up another $20 as we approach $1200. The XAU gained 5 points. ABX and GG were up a buck , while NEM tacked on 1 1/2. Volume was light. The money continues to go into gold. You cannot fight that. The dollar was weaker today and broke its near term support. We are very overbought in the gold shares and the gold market but there hasn't been any drop. That won't last forever. I'll be taking a look at the gold shares as well. Mentally I'm in stand by mode. There isn't much else to do this week. Relax and try to come up with a game plan for the December option cycle. But there's no hurry.

The Dow lost 17 points today in light trading. Advance/declines were negative. Just marking time here in my opinion. It's a holiday light week. No trades on the horizon with regards to the OEX. Gold was up a buck and even higher in the aftermarket. The XAU lost a point and change. ABX off 3/4, GG down almost a point and NEM fell 1/4. Volume was average to light. The dollar was flat today. I'd like to get long the gold shares again at some point. I just don't know when that point will be. The money continues to flow into gold and you can't argue with that. However at some point the money will flow out and fast. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. I'm remaining patient here as there is no rush to put on a trade. So it's just a wait and see environment. Tomorrow should be slow with light trading again.

The holiday week started on a positive note as the Dow gained 132 points. The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive and the volume was light. We were oversold and due for a bounce. I don't think it's going to be much more than that. Major overhead resistance is in play now. We will either have a drop here or move sideways in my opinion. We'll see what happens. Gold set another new high today, up $17. The XAU rose 2 3/4. The gold shares were mixed with ABX dropping a touch, while GG was up fractionally and NEM gained a point. Volume was average. The gold shares have been lagging the price of gold lately. I'm going to hold off on the calls for now. The dollar was weaker today and is basically moving sideways like the overall stock market. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, could have slept better. I'm in a wait and see mode at the moment as I do not plan on taking on any positions this holiday week. It's a time for me to be patient. I'll try my best.

We closed the week with a loss of 14 points in the Dow. Volume was light and the advance/declines were negative. Pretty quiet despite the expiration. Short week coming up and I don't expect a lot of movement. My guess is that the upcoming week will have a positive bias. Summation index heading lower in a sideways band. No OEX trades in the near future. Gold was up $5 and higher in the aftermarket. The XAU fell 1 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. The dollar was higher. The gold shares and gold itself are overbought. I'll be looking for a pullback to get long. Perhaps the January calls. But nothing anytime in the next week. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. It's a time to be patient in my opinion. Just let Thanksgiving week pass and go from there. I could be wrong but that will be the game plan. It's the weekend and time for a break.

The Dow lost some ground today as it fell 93 points. It was worse than that but you can't keep this market down so it seems. Volume was average and the advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. We're still in a sideways mode in my opinion. The summation index should move back to the downside with todays action. We're going to be oversold here with regards to the market soon if not already. No time to be taking on any big or even small positions. Holiday week to follow. Gold sold off and came back, finishing the day flat. The XAU gained a point. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. The dollar was higher today. There's no keeping the gold shares down at this point. They sold off and came all the way back. Good relative strength compared to the overall market as well. It won't last forever but that is the scenario at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. No trades on the horizon at the moment. I think that I'll let next week pass and take it from there. Perhaps the gold shares if we get a pullback. Expiration tomorrow and we'll see how it goes.

Tried to sell off again and the Dow only lost 11 points. Advance/declines were negative again and the volume was nothing special. Moving sideways here basically but that could change soon. Not that I have any idea of which way we'll go. Summation index still heading higher. No OEX trades in the works and I'll consider it a victory if I don't make a trade before Fridays expiration. Gold ended up a couple of bucks but was higher early. The XAU lost 2 3/4. ABX lost 1 1/3, GG off 2/3 and NEM dropped a touch. Volume was average. These shares really need to take a rest and I am no longer looking at the calls there. For now that is. If we get a decent pullback then I am ready to try that trade again. The dollar lost ground today as it is also basically moving sideways here as well. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired today. Just a couple days left before the expiration and then a holiday week. I think it's time to be relaxed and take it easy. Perhaps there will be a good trade for the December cycle but there is not reason to put it on now. No clear signals and most everything is overbought. So I'm going to try and sit tight for now.

Opened lower and closed higher as the Dow gained 30 points. Nothing seems to stop the market at this point. Volume was weak however and the advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still heading higher. There's usually a positive bias during expiration week and we've seen that so far. I'm trying not to make a trade here but I am leaning to the short side. Risk is very high with 3 days to go though. Gold also sold off and came back to be unchanged on the day. The XAU was up a point. ABX gained a buck, GG was flat and NEM rose about 1/2. Volume was light. The dollar had a bounce and the gold shares hung in there pretty well despite that. I'd love to try something on the long side here as well but again, there's only 3 days to go. So hopefully I'll just ride this week out on the sidelines and go from there. But you never know. Mentally I'm feeling fine, slept well again. Trying my best to not do anything stupid here. Holiday week coming up as well. Patience is king at the moment. The stock market continues higher and it looks like that is the path of least resistance. Volume hasn't been that good lately and that would be a concern going forward if it doesn't pick up. So we'll see.

Expiration week begins with a decent gain as the Dow was up 136 points. Volume was average while the advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index will be back to the upside and the path of least resistance will be higher. Unless something dramatically changes in the near term. I have no OEX trades in mind here. Gold made another new all time high, up $22. The XAU rose 5 1/4 points. All the gold shares that I follow here were higher with NEM leading the way, up 1 1/4. ABX was up over a buck and GG remains the laggard gaining 2/3. Volume was average. The dollar continues lower and there is nothing to stop the long gold trade from working at this point. We are extremely overbought on gold though both short and medium term. We should at least see some sideways action here soon. That could be the opportunity to get long some January calls. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. I'll try and not do anything stupid this week but you never know. The short term time frames are not my best. That said if something catches my eye I may put on a trade. But the risk is high and perhaps the sidelines will be where I'll stay. Thanksgiving week coming up next so there will be no rush to try the December options. We'll look for follow through in the market tomorrow.

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 93 points. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive and the volume was light again. Moving sideways for now as the market decides which way to go. Option expiration week coming up. It's a tough call just which way we will go here. The prudent thing to do is to stay on the sidelines until there is a decent signal. That's the way I'm leaning right now. Could change over the weekend. Gold was back up as well, $10 to the plus side. The XAU rose 3 1/2. ABX and GG gained a buck, while NEM led the way again, up over 1 1/4. Volume was average for lately. Not sure I'll try the gold share calls here now but you never know. The optimum time has passed really. The dollar was back down today. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well. With 5 days to go on this option cycle, the trading gets compressed and that really isn't my best time frame. But what is, this year? It looks like we could just have a sideways period next week. The summation index is not trending at the moment either. The smart thing to do could be just wait and see. Sometimes the hardest thing to do is to do nothing. So I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. Time for a couple days off and some rest.

Finally a little decline as the Dow lost 93 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index should be pointing down now again. Perhaps we are just starting to work off the short term overbought condition. Expiration week looms though. The smart play for me here is probably to stay on the sidelines. That doesn't mean I will though. Gold took a drop too, down $8 on the futures. The XAU fell almost 5 points. ABX and GG both lost over a buck while NEM led the way down, off 1 1/2. Volume was average. If I'm going to try the gold share calls, this could be the place to try. I may leave in an overnight order. It's risky though. The dollar had a good day and that figures into the mix. 6 days left on the November options. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. We've gotten some decline today. The question is whether it's just a short term move before we head higher next week or something else. I'll have to look at things tonight and figure out if a trade here is worth the risk.

The Dow continues higher, gaining another 44 points. Volume remains on the light side. Advance/declines were positive. Just how much higher will we go before we at least get some type of pullback? Not much in my opinion but I'm not looking to get short here. There obviously is plenty of money around looking for a home. Expiration week coming up as well and that usually has a positive bias. Gold was up $15 today but the gold shares lagged. The XAU rose a point. NEM was up 3/4 but ABX and GG only had fractional moves. All were much higher early. Volume was average. I might still try the gold share calls if we get a pullback. Or not. The dollar opened lower and closed higher. But it wasn't dramatic and the trend there is still down. Mentally I'm feeling better, slept OK. 7 days until the November expiration. The market is overbought here and staying that way. I don't think getting some OEX puts here is the correct play but I could be wrong. Perhaps on a short term basis. I'm on the sidelines for now.

The Dow tried to sell off today but instead gained another 20 points. Volume was light and the advance/declines were negative. We're still overbought here but that doesn't mean we won't stay that way. No OEX trades for now. I'd look for some weakness near term. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. But the market will go where it wants. Gold was up a buck and the XAU rose 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM all moved fractionally on good volume. The gold shares tried to sell off and came back as well. I still may try the gold share calls for November again. We are overbought here as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Did not feel well last night and took the last half of today off. Luckily the market didn't do much today. Still not feeling 100%. Will try and rest up tonight and get back at it tomorrow.

Powering to the upside to start the week as the Dow gained 203 points. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive however the volume was light. This rally has everything but volume but you cannot argue with price. Todays action should turn the summation index higher and the trend will be to the upside. We are short term overbought here. But I would not try to short things here. Gold was up another $5 today and the gold shares soared with the XAU up 7 points. ABX and NEM were up around 1 1/2, while GG was the star of the day, up 2 3/4. All on heavy volume. The trend here is up but we are short term overbought as well. If we get any pullback I'll try the gold shares calls again for November. The dollar got clobbered today and that trend remains down. Money is and has been flowing into gold. That's the play for now. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept longer. It looks like we will head higher into the November expiration unless something dramatically changes here. I am lamenting getting stopped out of the GG trade. I did have a feeling of it possibly being a super trade and it could have been. But I have to move on and I am. It's happened before. It does let you know that there are excellent money making opportunities in the game. That's why we play.

The Dow gained 17 points today after the employment report. Volume looks to be a bit light again and the advance/declines were about even. The employment report has come and gone. It really didn't do much to the market when all was said and done. The summation index is trying to turn around here. We'll see if it does. Overbought now on a short term basis. Gold continues to the upside gaining another $6. The XAU rose 3 points. ABX and GG gained about a buck. NEM up 1 3/4. Volume was good. The dollar didn't do much. The gold shares are overbought as well but continue higher. I'll try the calls again if we get any type of pullback. Money is flowing there. Mentally I'm a bit tired today. I did have a winning trade this week but it should have been much better. There's still 2 weeks to go on the November options and I'll probably try something else. But you never know. I need to do the work over the weekend and get ready to be focused on next week. My thinking is we will get some type of pullback in the overall market next week and then head higher into the expiration. Barring some unforeseen event. The weekend has arrives and it's time for a break.

A pre-employment report rally as the Dow gained 203 points on lighter than lately volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. I expected a wait and see type of day but no. Does this bode well for the report tomorrow? We'll see. Summation index trying to turn back up. Perhaps the decline is over. Still 2 weeks left on the options for November. We'll have to see if there is follow through tomorrow. Gold was up a couple bucks and the XAU rose a point. ABX and GG had fractional moves to the upside, while NEM was flat. Volume was lighter than usual. The GG earnings had a muted effect. I may try the gold shares one more time here in November. If we get a bit of a pullback in gold. Could be risky though. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep enough. With the action in the overall stock market this week it appears that the decline is over. Once the summation index turns up we should move to new recovery highs. I'm not sure gold will follow, considering we gained 200 points today and the gold shares barely budged. So there's things to think about as usual. I was considering trying some GE calls here as well. But let's see tomorrows report and reaction first.

We opened up strong and rallied after the Fed but then gave most of it back. The Dow gained 30 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were up well over 100 points a couple of times. The Fed said nothing new so now we wait for the employment report on Friday. Summation index still pointing down but it might be trying to turn up soon. The overall market was weaker today as we flip flop with that scenario day after day. Gold had another good day and another record high. We were up $8 in the aftermarket. The XAU only gained 1 1/3. The gold shares were mixed with ABX and NEM up about a buck on strong volume. GG was the laggard and lost 1/4 on good volume. GG was weak all day ahead of the earnings and I was stopped out of the GG call trade. I moved the stop up after seeing the weakness. I kind of wish I still was in the trade. The dollar was weaker today and should head even lower. Gold is rallying strong. GG was weak all day and my stop was barely hit. The trade gained about 150% but I feel it could and should have been much more. Who knows, I may try it again before expiration. Not sure why GG was the weakest of the bunch but that's the one that I owned and you just have to deal with it. We'll see how it reacts to the earnings. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. The market remains volatile here. Might stay that way for a while. I wouldn't expect much movement tomorrow ahead of the employment report but anything can happen. I'll try to put the GG trade behind me and move on. It was one of the rare winners for this year.

It was pretty much a sideways day as the Dow lost 17 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. It looks like we are waiting on the Fed tomorrow. Summation index still heading lower. Technically we're still a bit oversold on a short term basis but I believe anything can happen here. The internals are the opposite of yesterday, with the overall market stronger than the Dow. So we'll see what the Fed says and how the market reacts. Gold had a stellar day and broke out to a new high, up $30. The XAU rose 10 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all up over 2 1/2 on heavy volume. All of a sudden the gold shares are looking better. A nice move higher on expanding volume and that is bullish. My GG calls are now firmly into the black. The dollar was higher today and it didn't matter to gold. We're not overbought on the gold shares yet but now the problem is just how long do I hold onto these calls. We've still got 2 1/2 weeks on the options. Looks like I'll be holding on to the calls through the earnings announcement tomorrow after the close. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept more. I still think that the market is in a precarious position here. And that will affect what happens in the gold shares. However todays action points to higher prices near term. I also can make a case for a much higher target for the gold shares here that would turn my trading year around. But that's a stretch. None the less, it is a possibility.

Volatility has returned as the Dow was up well over 100 points, gave it all back and then some, only to return to the upside. We gained 76 points on the first day of the month. Advance/declines were slightly positive and the volume was pretty good. The overall market was not as strong as the Dow and that isn't bullish going forward. Summation index still pointing down. We've got a Fed announcement in a couple of days and the employment report on Friday. It could be one of those fasten your seat belts type of week. The trading becomes compressed, with violent moves in both directions. It could be that kind of week. Gold had a good day, up almost $20 and near an all-time high. However the gold shares did not follow with the XAU only gaining 1 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on heavy volume. They were up good early and gave it all back. That really isn't the type of price action that is bullish either. My GG calls are still slightly in the black. Anything could happen. The gold shares are following the overall market. The dollar sold off early today and also came back when the market tanked halfway through the day. This GG call trade is becoming hard to hold on to. Plus we have the earnings out after the close on Wednesday. At this rate I am probably going to wait for the earnings. But I'm not sure. The technicals are still oversold but they could just stay there. It never gets easy in this game. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept pretty good. The markets are starting to act a little crazy again. It makes for tough trading. There's no reason why I can't just get out of this trade and hit the sidelines. Except for the fact that you don't make any money that way. But you don't lose any either. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Back to the downside as the Dow lost 250 points to close the month. Volume was heavy and the advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. This is not the scenario that will help my GG trade but it wasn't unexpected. Yesterday was just an oversold bounce. We closed near the low today so Monday should be interesting. Summation index still heading lower. Volatility has really picked up which should help the option premiums keep their value for a while. Anyway the trend in the overall market has changed to being down instead of up. Stay tuned. Gold sold off early but came back to be down a touch in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 5 1/2 points following the stock market. ABX and GG were down over a buck, while NEM gained 1/3. Volume was heavy. The dollar was higher today and it's possible that we are seeing a multi-week bounce there. Flight to safety trade coming back? Who knows? My GG calls almost got stopped out today but came back as did the precious metal. In retrospect I should have just sold them yesterday and perhaps even at some point today near the close. They are up just a bit. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep enough. I'm getting the feeling that the market is speeding up here. As in the volatility has picked up so that trades must be done in a shorter time frame. At the rate things are moving I will be stopped out of the GG trade before the earnings come out on Wednesday night. So I will have to come up with a distinct game plan for early next week with regards to this trade. There will be a lot to think about over the weekend. For now it's time for a rest but there's much work to do.

Well we got the bounce as we were pretty oversold. The Dow rose 200 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. Now the question is was this just a one day wonder? I'm inclined to think so. We will need to move sideways for a while before we head back up again in my opinion. But my opinion hasn't been worth much this year. Another scenario would be to continue the decline in earnest after today. End of the month tomorrow and Monday begins a new one. We'll have to see what kind of money flows appear. Gold bounced as well, up $16. The XAU gained 7 points. ABX up 2 1/2, with GG and NEM tacking on 1 1/2. Volume was a bit better than lately. My GG calls are in the black as the dollar was a bit weaker today. This GG trade is tricky. Earnings are not out until next Wednesday. I don't know if I want to hold on until then. On a daily basis there is room to move up from oversold but the shorter term indicators are already overbought. GG lagged today and that wasn't a good sign. I'll ponder things tonight. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. It was a nice bounce but where do we go from here is the question. Trading never gets easy. I may wait until Monday on the GG calls but I'll have to adjust as time goes on. Perhaps I will have to wait on the earnings. We'll see.

Continuing to the downside with the Dow losing 119 points. Advance/declines were 9 to 1 negative and the volume picked up to the downside. Oversold and staying there. I get the feeling that the tone of the market has changed. We should have had some type of bounce by now. Perhaps it is end of the month shenanigans but it seems like something more. Summation index solidly pointing down. Get OEX puts on a bounce? Perhaps. Gold lost $5 and a bit more in the aftermarket. The XAU fell over 8. ABX, GG and NEM were all off 1 1/2 on increased volume. My order for GG calls was filled. The stop-loss order has been put in. Now I'm not so sure I even want to be in this trade. However we are oversold, earnings for ABX and NEM are out tomorrow along with the GDP report. That may not mean anything though if we continue to slide. The dollar has found some buyers lately too. I may be exiting this trade sooner rather than later. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I am determined not to lose more than 50% on any trade from here on out. This had been implemented before but I would override it. No more. This will save me from the inevitable huge losses that occurred when I couldn't admit that I was wrong. The market goes where it wants and I think we're witnessing that right now. Tomorrow will be key. Deeply oversold and we need to see some upside.

Kind of a sideways type of day as the Dow gained 14 points while the overall markets were weaker. Volume was average and the advance/declines were negative. Summation index still pointing lower. Oversold here so I would expect at least some type of bounce soon. GDP on Thursday and that will be a mover in my opinion. Is it too late for some OEX puts? we'll see. Gold lost $7 in the futures market but came back a bit in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 2 1/4. ABX and NEM were flat, while GG lost 3/4. All on average volume. Earnings on Thursday as well for ABX and NEM. The dollar had a slight gain today. Oversold on the gold shares here and that has been a buying opportunity for the past few months. I'm leaving in an open order for the November GG calls. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. We are getting very oversold on the McClellan oscillator and I would expect at least some type of bounce soon. I'm getting the feeling this decline may be more than what we have seen lately but I've been consistently wrong this year. This could just be an end of October phenomenon. We'll know soon enough.

A weak start to the week as the Dow lost 104 points. Advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative and the volume was average. Getting to oversold here but the summation index is still pointing down. Is this the expected correction that I've been looking for? I've said that before. The overall trend is still up for now but that could change. We've got the end of the month coming up at the end of the week. I think the GDP number this week will be the biggest data point. No OEX trades for now. Gold took a hit, down $13 on the futures. The XAU lost 6 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all lost around 1 1/2 on average volume. ABX and NEM earnings out on Thursday. The dollar was higher today. There is a lot of talk about the dollar beginning to rally here, for whatever reasons. This happened a few weeks ago as well and then the dollar hit fresh lows. I did place an open order in for some GG November calls. We'll see what happens. Oversold in the gold shares here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Trying to gauge if this is the time to make a trade. The open order that I have placed is much lower than where the option price is at the moment. Not much risk in leaving it open for now. We'll see what Tuesday brings.

Back to the downside as the Dow lost 109 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. Moving sideways for now and deciding which way to go I suppose. Summation index still pointing down. Can't say I have a good feel for what's about to happen here but I'm leaning towards the lower prices argument. But who knows? We'll see the reaction to the data out next week. Gold lost a couple bucks as the dollar had a bounce. The XAU lost 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all fractionally lower on light volume with GG leading the way. Some earnings out next week. I may try the gold share calls next week. Just about getting to short term oversold there. I'll mull things over the weekend. Mentally I'm doing OK. On the sidelines and rewriting my trading rules. Still 4 weeks on the November options so this was a good week to just sit tight. I'll be checking the charts for the next couple of days and take it from there. For now it's time for a break.

Back to the upside as the Dow climbed 132 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. The summation index rolled over yesterday so todays market action is puzzling. My inclination is to not believe the rally but that hasn't been the case for quite some time. We are still in a sideways channel here for the major indices. No trades on the horizon at the moment in the OEX. Gold lost $5 today as the dollar stabilized. The XAU didn't do much. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. If anything, I might try the gold share calls. Earnings out next week for ABX and NEM. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It looked to me as though the Dow was stronger than the overall market today. The advance/declines were not as strong as you would expect for a market up over 100 points. Perhaps it's a warning sign. So I'm really in no hurry to put on a trade here. I'm going over my trading rules and will be making some changes. That is something positive, hopefully, that has come from this years trading account carnage. We'll get through Friday and go from there.

The Dow fell apart in the last hour and closed with a loss of 92 points. We were higher for most of the day. Volume looks a bit better than lately and the advance/declines were negative. Perhaps the summation index is about to fall off of the ledge. Time will tell and it will tell soon. We are long overdue for a sustained decline. But who knows? we could turn around tomorrow. Still overbought on a medium term basis. Gold was up $5 on the futures but the XAU was little changed. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on average volume. All were up over the course of the day and sold off near the end of the day as well. I'm looking at the gold shares but no trades are imminent. The dollar hit fresh lows and that is the same old story. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept better. No rush to trade here as my many losses this year have caused me to re-evaluate my trading methods and I'm in the process of coming up with some changes to my rules. Following the rules is tougher than making them. However the discipline that has been lacking in my trading this year must be addressed. As well as the excessive risk taking. I'm working on it.

The Dow lost 50 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. We're moving sideways at the moment. Is it a pause before we move higher? That's been the case for quite some time. We are almost at some important long term down trend lines. We will need to see volume pick up in order to break through them. I'm not sure that will happen. The summation index is moving sideways here as well, possibly forming a ledge. The market usually breaks down if that is the case. Hasn't happened yet. Gold was flat on the day, while the XAU lost almost 4 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all down around a buck on light volume. The dollar was higher today. There's nothing to suspect that the up trend in gold is in danger at the moment. I'd like to get long the gold shares at some point. Mentally I'm feeling OK. No rush to take any positions. I'd have to get a good signal one way or the other in order to do something. Not that the signals I follow have worked out for me this year. I'm on the sidelines until further notice.

The market continues to climb as the Dow gained 96 points. Advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive and volume looks to be a bit light. We are at some long term weekly downtrend lines in the major indices. If we break through to the upside, it's going to be more of the same up, up and away. Hasn't happened yet but at this rate, nothing is bothering the market. We'll see what happens this week. A lot of earnings reports due out. Gold was up $6 and moved higher in the aftermarket. The XAU gained 1 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional moves to the upside on light volume. The dollar hit fresh lows. This song and dance remains the same. Again I wonder that this can't go on forever. But it is for now. No sense in fighting the trends. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. No trades on the horizon. An extra week in the November option cycle. We remain overbought and that hasn't produced a sustained drop in quite some time. So I'll be on the sidelines until further notice. Perhaps try something in gold if we get a pullback. But I've said that before.

A little downside today as the Dow lost 67 points on expiration Friday. Volume was average and the advance/declines were negative. We got some poor earnings reports from IBM and GE. At least they were viewed as poor regardless of what the numbers were. We were way overbought anyway. Summation index is moving sideways at this point. I can't say that I have a good grasp of what is going on, as I have had many losing trades this year. We can't stay overbought forever though. Gold was flat and so were the gold shares. The XAU was up 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other. Volume was nothing special. The dollar was up a touch. Gold is overbought as well. I'd still like to get long here at some point. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. Another expiration has passed as we move to the November cycle. There is an extra week on the November options, so I'll be in no rush to put on a trade. I may be done for the year anyway. I'll look over things this weekend and go from there. It's time to take it easy and enjoy the weekend.

Moving yet higher as the Dow gained 47 points. Advance/declines were about even and the volume was average. Overbought on a short and medium term basis. The summation index is starting to move to the upside. I can't imagine that this can last much longer but I've been wrong all year long. Expiration tomorrow. Gold took a drop today, down $14 even with the dollar a bit weaker. The XAU fell 3 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM all lost around a buck or so one way or the other. Volume was light. The inflation data today was benign which doesn't help the price of gold. It's been quite a run in gold as well. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. No trades on the horizon as I could be done for the year. Possibly breaking through to the upside of long term weekly downtrend lines. I'll need to check the charts. Volume hasn't been anything that great on this rise but you cannot deny the price movement. We'll see how we close out the week.

The Dow took off to the upside today, gaining 145 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. I dumped the OEX puts for yet another loss. It was around an 80% loss. This is shaping up as my worst year ever, since the early days when I did not have a lot of money and would blow up my account on a regular basis. Overbought and staying there. It looks like we are breaking a long term downtrend line on a weekly basis. That is bullish. Just how high can we go? Gold was flat and the XAU as well. ABX, GG and NEM were little changed on light volume. The dollar continued lower today. Inflation data out tomorrow morning. The gold shares did not participate on the upside today and with the dollar weaker that is a surprise. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep all that well. It was another losing trade closed today. The story of my year. I'm down over 30% so far for this years trading. That could be it for me this year. Nothing is working at the moment. It's only the middle of October. I guess I'll have to take a step back and re-evaluate where to go from here. My confidence is shot at the moment. That doesn't help things. We'll see what happens tomorrow but we can't go up forever, can we?

We sold off early and came all the way back today as the Dow lost about 15 points. Volume was average while the advance/declines were negative. 3 days to go and my OEX puts are running out of time. However I am committed to waiting for Thursday at this point. Some data out tomorrow including the FOMC minutes. Still overbought here but that hasn't meant anything lately. Intel earnings after the bell today as well. We'll see. Gold continues with its breakout, up another $7 on the futures. The XAU rose 3 points. ABX and GG were up about 1/2 on average volume. NEM rose a bit over a point. The dollar fell again today. Everyone seems to want to be long gold now. That won't last forever. No mistaking that I missed that move though and had plenty of chances. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'm somehow still believing in this OEX trade but time is running out. However I've been wrong so many times this year it could just be another false hope. I'll know in the next couple of days.

A somewhat quiet Monday as the Dow gained 20 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was light. I almost bought some more OEX puts today. This has been an extremely light volume rise over the past 6 days. I do not trust it to be real. My OEX puts are losers but I do believe we will be getting a decent decline between now and the close on Thursday. I purchased too early. That's my belief at the moment. Now I could be wrong and we could break out to new recovery highs again. We'll see what happens going forward. Gold continues higher as the dollar dropped today. The precious metal was up $8 today but the XAU lost 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM were all about unchanged on light volume. Overbought here but that hasn't meant anything for gold lately. I'd like to get long if we get a pullback. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept good. The stock market is short term overbought here and just about medium term overbought as well. I really think puts are the way to go this week, even with the expiration positive bias factor. Today was a partial holiday so we'll see how things go tomorrow when all the players have returned. No real data until Wednesday. 4 days to go on the October option cycle. I suppose that I am going to hold these puts until Thursday barring some blow-off rise tomorrow. Anything can happen in this game.

The Dow closed at the high of the day and high for the week. The Dow was up 78 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. My OEX puts are in the red. Too early I suppose. There's a bank holiday on Monday as well. I am still not a believer in this advance in the Dow. The volume is light. I could be wrong and probably am considering the year I've had. Short term overbought here now but that doesn't mean that it can't last another day or so. This trade is in trouble. Gold lost a bit today, down $7. The XAU lost around a point. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. That implies that the trend is still up. The dollar had a good day but the gold shares did not sell off that bad. Overbought here as well but perhaps the gold shares will move higher for the October expiration and I'm afraid that the overall market could do the same thing. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'll need to figure out where to put the stop loss order in for this OEX trade so I don't get completely killed again. It's frustrating but what can you do? Expiration week is upon us and it usually has a positive bias in the beginning. I smell another losing trade. It's the weekend and I'll check the charts and go from there. Time for a rest.

The Dow gained 61 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. We are getting short term overbought but that doesn't mean we can't stay there. However, I did purchase some OEX puts today. I believe that the volume so far this week has been light and we will roll over to the downside. The summation index did move back to the upside today and that could be a caveat. So we'll see what happens. The ideal scenario would be to hold these puts until expiration. Gold had another good day and continues to make record highs. It was up over $10. The XAU gained 2 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on average volume. I would have thought that these issues would have done better considering the move in gold. The dollar hit a fresh new low for this downside leg in the index. That looks like it was the trade to be in really. But what can you do? Gotta keep moving on. There will be other opportunities there. Mentally I'm feeling pretty tired. Did not sleep enough. Well, now I'm in another trade and hopefully I'll manage it better than the last one. The market will do what it wants. 6 days on the October option cycle. We'll see how it goes.

The Dow tried to sell off today but came all the way back to end the day off by 5 points. Volume was light and the advance/declines were positive. My order for OEX puts was not filled overnight and I canceled it near the close. I will probably come up with another overnight order but I'm not sure that the short side is the way to go just yet. That said, the summation index is moving to neutral. We aren't short term overbought yet but we're getting there. I'll ponder things tonight. Gold was up another $4 and the XAU gained 2 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on average volume. Obviously gold was the place to be. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep long enough. 7 days left in the October option cycle. There is a chance that we just run up to new recovery highs here as well. I may stick with my original scenario though and look for some downside soon.

Another good day for the markets as the Dow gained 131 points. Advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive while the volume was average. We've gotten a decent bounce and if my prognosis for lower prices is correct, that should be about it. However the possibility remains that I could be wrong and the decline is over. In that case we will be going on to a new recovery high. The summation index has not turned around yet so I'm sticking with the bearish case for now. I have an open order in for some OEX puts. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Gold had a great day, up over $20 to a new all time high. The XAU rose 10 points. I cannot believe how many times I have missed out on gold. I was there but did not have the conviction to just get long. I really need to work on that. ABX up 2, GG up 2 1/3 and NEM up 3 all on good volume. The dollar fell again and is at support. If it doesn't hold, gold will go much higher I think. However if the market turns around here and starts to fall again, the dollar will see some buying. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. So gold is taking off and I'm not in it again. The weekly gold share charts looked bearish and the market just turned around. However the daily dollar chart was overbought. At any rate, where we go from here is what matters. I'm sticking with the bearish OEX scenario for the October option cycle. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

We got the expected bounce today as the Dow rose 112 points. Advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive and the volume was average. It's now when things get interesting. Is this just a bounce in a decline or the start of another leg up? Answer that correctly and you' ll make some money in the next 2 weeks. I'm inclined to think that it's the former and I'll be looking to get some OEX puts this week. But that's not etched in stone. Gold had a good day on the US dollars decline. The precious metal gained $13 and the XAU rose 5 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all up around a buck with GG leading the way. Volume wasn't impressive though. If my overall market weakness scenario is correct, then the gold shares will be dropping back once again. I like the gold shares still though but the weekly charts look bearish. So I'm on the sidelines there even though I put in an overnight order for some GG calls last night. Obviously it wasn't filled as the gold shares rose from the start of trading today. Mentally I'm doing OK. Slept well enough. As I looked things over this weekend it appeared that gold could be in for another short term rise here. However it looks like gold is leading the gold shares and that is never a sign of a longer term move. At least not in my experience. We'll see what happens there. I'm going to be looking at getting some OEX puts on Wednesday. That is the game plan at this point. Market action will dictate whether that trade is worth doing when the time comes.

We sold off early and tried to come back all day but the Dow closed with a loss of 21 points. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative and the volume was average. Considering how weak the employment report was, it could have been worse. However we are pretty oversold here and a bounce is expected here in the next day or so. We are also at the 50 day moving average on the OEX so some type of support can be expected here. I don't think it will last though. Summation index still pointing down. Gold was up a few bucks on a weaker dollar. But it wasn't the expected rally after a weak employment report. The XAU was off about 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on average volume. They were higher early. The weekly charts look bearish for the gold shares but I did put in an order for some GG calls today and it wasn't filled. I may try again next week but we'll have to see. I need to check things out over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 2 weeks left in the October cycle and I'd really like to try something here. The market seems to have gotten pretty weak all of a sudden. I'm going to have to continue to believe that rallies can be shorted. If we even get a rally. So perhaps trying anything from the long side here isn't a good idea. I'm going to study the charts over the weekend and come up with a game plan for next week. For now, it's time for a break.

Well, the decline began in earnest today as the Dow lost 203 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. Rallies can be shorted. We are pretty oversold here so a bounce is in order but it will be short lived in my opinion if it happens. Summation index pointing down. I did end up putting in an overnight order for some OEX puts but it wasn't filled. I'll wait for some type of bounce and try again. Employment report tomorrow. Gold lost $8 today and the XAU fell 7 1/2. The dollar gained some ground today. Flight to safety already? ABX lost 1 3/4, GG dropped 1 7/8 and NEM off 1 1/2. All on average volume. The gold shares are at support here and a break would not be good for the bullish case. I'll be keeping an eye on them. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. So the employment report will be tomorrows focus and we go from there. I have no idea what the number will be but it is the markets reaction that will be key. I don't plan on putting on any trades tomorrow but you never know.