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Friday, January 22, 2010

Continuing to the downside as the path of least resistance is lower. The Dow lost 217 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 4 to 1 negative. We should see a bounce early next week. It may be an opportunity to get short. But it won't be easy. Oversold here and playing the bounce could be tricky. I think that I will wait to get some OEX puts as the McClellan oscillator tries to head back up to the zero line. Gold lost $13 on the futures but the XAU only fell 3/4. Perhaps getting some gold shares calls as a flight to safety will be the play. ABX, GG and NEM all ended the day where they started after selling off, then rising for nice gains and finally falling back again. Volume was heavy. The dollar was off a bit. I'm thinking about getting some gold share calls but will have to review things over the weekend. The XAU is oversold as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept long enough. Volatility has picked up and that has to be taken into consideration going forward. The market environment has changed. There's still 4 weeks to go in the February option cycle, so there's plenty of time to do something. We did break the uptrend line in the S&P 500 today that was in place for 6 months. Perhaps the market is concerned with what President Obama has been saying about the banks lately or maybe it's the concern over Ben Bernankes reconfirmation as Fed chief. You can't argue with the price movement though. There's lots to ponder over the weekend. It's Friday afternoon and time to relax for a while.

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