Closed the week on a down note with the Dow losing 147 points on good volume. Advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. We did come back a bit but the trend remains down. That said I think that you can buy weakness Monday for a short term trade. That's the idea at the moment. My work says that Monday or Tuesday will be a decent up day. We could completely collapse here as well but that is a low percentage bet. I think we'll see 580 on the OEX before expiration but we are getting medium term oversold and are already short term oversold. I'll check things over the weekend. Gold lost a couple bucks but the XAU dropped over 6 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all down around 1 1/2 on lighter volume. I have no trades in mind there at the moment. Will try and wait for the next buy signal. GE lost 1/2 on good volume. I'm thinking of the April 33 calls perhaps at some point. But we'll see. Mentally feeling OK. Somewhat thinking I've got a handle on things marketwise here. Will try and get the conviction over the weekend to take a trade early next week. Summation index is still heading down and approaching the zero line which usually leads to the market unraveling. However we have been dropping for so long that a bounce is due. At this point I'd like to try and play the bounce and then get some puts after that. It's all a guess but we should see some kind of rebound attempt early in the week and then after that it's anybodies guess. For now it's the weekend, time to regroup, check the charts and get some rest

Breaking out to the downside today as the Dow lost 215 points on good volume. Advance/declines were about 9 to 1 negative. The OEX puts were always too expensive. But we are heading lower even if we bounce from time to time. Still may get a chance to play the downside but that would be next week. May not happen. Gold lost $10 today while the XAU only dropped 1/2. ABX and NEM were down today while GG continued its relative strength, up a touch. The dollar continues lower but that won't go on forever in a straight line. GE lost 3/4 on good volume and is looking to take out its lows. Tomorrow maybe? Mentally I'm feeling OK I suppose. Would love to have a conviction for a position here but I don't. Summation index still heading lower and it has been the key here. There's a chance things could fall apart tomorrow but that's not a certainty. The employment report will be a mover early. A weak report would probably mean more weakness in equities and vice versa. Who knows, we could get a short covering rally again. There are a lot of questions at the moment. This much is certain. We are breaking out to the downside of the consolidation as of today. Unless we turn around tomorrow in a big way, the trend is down.

Up, down, up as the market tries to make up its mind here. The Dow gained 41 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were oversold and a bounce is to be expected. Have we formed a bottom and on the way to much higher prices? It's possible but not a certainty. The summation index will still be pointing down and that is troubling for the upside at this point. But it all could change. Employment report on Friday and that will be the key in my opinion. Had every chance to sell off today and the market held on. Gold came back big, up over $20. The XAU rose over 7 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all up over a point. Will we get to $1000 this week? Maybe. Do I still want some gold calls? This market is moving back and forth so much lately that it is hard to say what is going to happen. Can't go up forever though. GE was up 20 cents on average volume. No trades there. Mentally feeling OK, slept well. Really have the feeling that getting long here is the way to go but just can't bring myself to do it. I don't think rallies have any real staying power in a market like this. I could be wrong. Did just get a buy signal on one of the indicators that could last into early next week. Or not. That is part of the problem. We are still in a sideways pattern until proven otherwise. It will break out sooner or later. Waiting for that break requires discipline and patience. It isn't easy.

We got a big move today but it was to the downside. The Dow was off over 200 points but came back in the last hour or so to be down 45 on the day. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative and the volume was heavy. If you had the guts you could have bought the weakness. We are still short term oversold and I would expect upside tomorrow. What to do after that is the key. Perhaps today was the end of the selling for a while. It's possible. But it's also possible that it's just another oversold bounce. We did break out to the downside of this lengthy consolidation but we came right back up into it. The summation index continues lower. There are conflicting signals at the moment. It's never easy. Gold finally took a break, losing over $17. The XAU dropped over 7 points. ABX and NEM each lost over $2 on good volume. GG off over a point. Is this the rollover in gold? Do I want to get some calls now? Again, confusion here reigns at the moment. If the overall market holds up here, that should help gold and we'll hit $1000 before the March expiration. If not, who knows? GE was up 20 cents on average volume. Is GE foretelling the direction of things to come? So many questions with so few answers at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling fine, got a good nights sleep. What is needed at the moment is an idea and the conviction to go with it. I would like to be positioned in something before the employment report on Friday. You don't lose anything on the sidelines but you don't make anything either. When in doubt, stay out is also something that shouldn't be ignored. I'll see what happens tomorrow and go from there.

We came back from the precipice again today as the Dow lost 7 points on good volume. Advance/declines were negative. The Dow was off almost 100 and came back in the last hour. We are at the bottom of the consolidation rectangle and could of broke out to the downside but did not. At this point we are short term oversold. The summation index is pointing down but the McClellan oscillator issued a signal for a big move within the next 2 trading days with the odds of it being to the upside. The signals seem to be to purchase some OEX calls. We'll see. Gold was up another $9 today continuing the straight line upward. The XAU gained back 6 1/2. I almost bought some NEM calls. Maybe tomorrow I'll get some gold calls but the risk is high. ABX and NEM were both up over a dollar and GG gained 1/2. How long can this last? Usually longer then you think. Money continues to go to gold but at some point it will come back out and it will come back out quick. When that point is, is anybodies guess. GE was up 1/3 on light volume. No trades there but perhaps the gain is a preview of thing to come for the overall market. Or not. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. My thinking is that any weakness can be bought tomorrow for a short term trade to the upside. I'm not sure I'll do it though. This has been a long consolidation for the indices. I still think the lows will be taken out sooner or later. That is really the trade that I'd like to be in. But I could be wrong. Employment report on Friday and that should be the mover of the week. Perhaps I will have to wait and position myself before then.

Just like that things can change. The Dow got clobbered today, off 315 points. Advance/declines were about 7 to 1 negative and the volume increased. I did not expect a sharp drop and had thought we would move higher. Things have changed, for whatever reasons. We are at the bottom of the consolidation rectangle and it appears we will break out to the downside. The summation index will be going down after todays action. It may be time for the OEX puts after all. Because if we do break down here, it will get ugly. Gold was higher to $975 and a new record. The dollar continues lower and there is a flight to safety on days like today. However the gold shares followed the overall market with the XAU down 6 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM were all off around 1 1/2 on average volume. I'll need to look at things over the weekend. GE lost 2/3 on good volume. That one may break down here as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK but concerned about todays action. There are a number of scenarios that can play out. Choosing the correct one is the challenge. Identifying opportunities and taking advantage of them is the name of the game. Was today an end of the month affair or something bigger? Monday should be interesting. At this point I'm considering getting short any strength. But we'll see. It's the weekend and time for a break in the action. All charts must be checked and we'll go from there.

A down day after 4 days on the upside. The Dow lost 112 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The beginning of something big to the downside? Who knows but I don't think that's about to happen just yet. Big Ben was still yakking on the hill and mentioned some banks might fail but not the big ones. Perhaps we should have been down more with such dire language from the Fed. Plenty of time in the option cycle so there is no hurry at the moment to enter any OEX trades. I think we'll trend higher from here. After that, then the opportunities arrive in my opinion. Gold was up another $6 and continues higher in the after market. The XAU rose 5 points. ABX, GG and NEM all up over a buck on average volume. We are moving straight up in gold as the dollar moves straight down. It won't go on forever but there is no telling when it will end. The buy signal in gold was generated a few weeks ago and took longer then usual to manifest itself. I'll try to remember that next time around. GE was off a little on light volume. This stock is going nowhere fast. Great if you're an option writer there. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. So it's a waiting game for some type of signal or the levels I explained yesterday to arrive. It's not always easy to sit on the sidelines but you can't always be looking to force things. For now I'll have to be patient and get ready for the next move.

Big Ben was yapping today as the Dow managed a 9 point gain. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was average. The NASDAQ was up and the S&P 500 was down. A holding pattern. What more can Bernanke say? It's slow or no growth with higher inflation. The real story is the credit crisis with a bunch of bad loans around the world. But he can't say that. In my opinion the moment of truth comes when we hit 13000 on the Dow, 1420 on the S&P 500 and 660 on the OEX if we get there. I think that is when it will be a good time to get short. But what do I know? Gold was up $12 to a new high at $960. The dollar is hitting new lows. The XAU was up 4 3/4. GG, ABX and NEM were all up around a buck on decent volume. There is where the money could have been made recently. GE was up a touch on light volume. Nothing really going on there lately. INTC just hung around by the close also. I think I will stop monitoring that one. Mentally I doing OK. Slept good enough. We are getting overbought on the indices but my thinking is to wait before buying the puts. Also that strategy may not be the right one anyway. The summation index continues higher. However we are still in a rectangle for the major indices. A consolidation. We will have to break out to the upside of that to hit the targets I previously mentioned unless we just go sideways to the weekly down trend line. That's the thinking at this point. Time will tell.

The rally continues with the Dow gaining another 114 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. We are approaching the 50 day moving average. We are at the top of the consolidation area. The summation index is moving higher. All systems seem to point to higher prices. We are getting overbought. My thinking is that the next trade is a short from the weekly down trend line. I'll have to wait until we get there. But that could change. Gold continues higher as well, up another $8. The XAU tacked on 2 3/4 points. GG, ABX and NEM were all higher. 1 1/2, 1 and 3/4 respectively. GG continues the relative strength. Volume there slowed down a little. GE was off a 1/4 on average volume. Not sure if that will impact the overall up move. INTC had a good day, up about 3/4. Perhaps the selling is done for a while however I think Big Ben is giving a speech tomorrow. That could have an impact one way or the other. Mentally I'm doing OK. Thinking about getting into gold again but this move to the upside is long in the tooth. However there seems to be nothing stopping the up move at this point even though it is way overbought. Perhaps it can last the March option cycle. We'll see. Otherwise patience is warranted at the moment.

The Dow continued the rally as we rose 189 points on light to average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. Is it possible that we have put in a base and will break the sideways action to the upside? Or is this another rally in the ongoing consolidation that has gone nowhere in the past month or so? Time will tell. The summation index should be heading back to the upside with todays action. There is no rush to trade here as we still have plenty of time in the March options. Gold lost $7 in todays trading, however the XAU was up a touch. GG remains the relative strength there. My thinking is that we could go either way here with gold. It is overbought but has had the tendency lately to stay that way. GE was up 2/3 on average volume and that should bode well for the overall market. INTC didn't do much. Mentally I am feeling OK. Trying to remain patient and wait for a decent signal. If I had to guess I'd say we're going higher here. But I don't have the conviction to throw any money at it. Sometimes you just have to wait and see. I really think the trade is buying OEX puts if we rally back to the weekly down trend line. But that is a long way off. For now it's the sidelines and we'll wait for something solid to develop.

We were down most of the day. 100 points or more at times. However in the last half hour we got a powerful rally and the Dow closed up 97 points. Advance/declines were positive after being negative most of the day. The volume was light to average. It's a one day reversal to the upside. My guess is short covering. There wasn't any news to cause it. We were right at the precipice of falling to new closing lows but it didn't happen. Perhaps this will launch us into a decent rally. Time will tell. I'm as confused as the market is here. Sidelines foe the OEX. Gold was off a couple bucks and the XAU dropped about 1/2. The gold shares mimicked the overall market, making a comeback in the last half hour as well. GG was up a touch as it kept its relative strength here. ABX and NEM were both down about 1/2. Volume was nothing special. GE ended down a dime on average volume. It is at its recent lows as is the overall market. INTC lost a 1/2 on expanding volume to the downside. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept good enough. If we had closed down today we would have been short term oversold. As it stands there is no clear signal one way or the other. We almost broke down today but held on for now. We are moving sideways. Once we get a breakout one way or another, then there will be a chance to attempt a trade. Patience isn't always the choice but it's what must be done now. The weekend is here. Time for a check of the charts and a game plan going forward. The option cycle is now 4 weeks.

Finally got the expected weakness today with the Dow off 143 point on average volume. Advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative. It's been an up and down week so far. However we have basically moved sideways and are still searching for some type of trend or direction. No trades in the OEX for now. Gold hit another record high today, up $10. The gold shares were higher early on the earnings but sold off later. The XAU gained a point. GG held up the best on heavy volume, up 1 1/4. ABX was barely higher and NEM was down 1/2. NEM had a loss for the 4th quarter but GG and ABX had great earnings. With gold at a record high and the earnings announced, what is left to move the gold shares higher? The GG calls I was looking at yesterday doubled. GE was down 1/3 on good volume. We are back to the recent low for GE. It needs to hold in here or it will forbode trouble for the overall market in my opinion. INTC opened higher and closed lower. That needs to hang in here also. Mentally I feel OK, got a good nights sleep. I am a bit troubled by not taking the GG trade yesterday. I just didn't have the guts. It's one thing to lose money. That's going to happen. But to not have confidence to take the trade when you see the opportunity is not a good thing. Sure the earnings could have been bad and the stock could have dropped but it didn't. So that's something that I'll have to work on. No data out tomorrow so we'll see where we go. It's possible the summation index turned around to the downside today but it has been trending higher. It's been a tough game lately.

A turnaround to the upside today as the Dow gained 90 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. We were lower early and turned it around. I am surprised as I expected weakness this week. Shows what I know. We are getting medium term overbought. That could last a while, it happens sometimes. I'm on ths sidelines for the OEX until I get a solid signal. Gold was up $8 and is rallying in the aftermarket another $10. The XAU gained 3 1/2. ABX, NEM and GG were all up fractionally on good volume. They all report earnings tomorrow. I almost bought some GG calls today. Gold is breaking out to new highs. I probably should have bought the calls today but I couldn't do it. The gold shares are already overbought and if earnings disappoint there will be weakness. That said they sometimes stay overbought for weeks. It's that kind of move at times. Oil just hit $100 so there is no reason gold can't get to $1000 in the next few weeks. The time to purchase the gold share calls was last Friday. It is always easy to look back. We'll see what happens tomorrow. GE was up a touch on light volume. It isn't doing much. I'm glad I don't have a position there, it would be a waste of effort. Mentally I'm doing as good as can be expected. Plenty of time on the March option cycle and there should be some trading opportunities. Today we got higher inflation data and the Fed minutes. The market moved higher. That may tell you something about where we are going. Or not. We'll see what the gold shares do on the earnings tomorrow. For those keeping track, this was the blogs 1000th post...

We started higher and closed lower today. The Dow was up over 100 points and ended the day down 11 points. Advance/declines were positive while volume was average. It isn't a positive when you can't hold the gains. My thinking is that tomorrow will be interesting. Oil closed over $100 today for the first time. We'll see what happens. Gold had a great day, up over $20. The XAU soared 8 3/4. ABX and NEM were both up 2 1/2. The volume wasn't that heavy but there were no sellers. The problem is that the options didn't move much with such big gains due to the time factor and expensive premiums. That said, with earnings on Thursday I still might pick up some calls. The buy signal that had been in effect for weeks is finally taking hold. If we get a little pullback tomorrow I might give it a shot. My thinking is that the overall market might show some weakness on the data out tomorrow and perhaps the gold shares will go with it. GE was flat on light volume. The chart there isn't looking good for the bullish cause. Mentally I'm feeling fine, got a good nights sleep. Again, with so much time left on the options for March, the premiums are very high. Even when the price of the underlying moves in the expected direction, the options don't gain as much as they would normally. You have to take that into consideration when entering the trade. I'm expecting weakness this week and so far we are getting it. So we'll see where we go from here.

Option expiration today as the Dow lost 29 points. Volume was light considering it was expiration. Advance/declines were negative. We were down much more and the overall market did better then the Dow. It's anybodys guess where we go from here. Today it seems like the market wants to go higher but I'm still looking for weakness next week. We'll see. Gold lost around $5 while the XAU was fractionally higher. ABX was up a few cents and NEM lost 60 cents. Volume was nothing special. The gold stocks are oversold and earnings are out next week. I will be looking at them over the long weekend. Perhaps it's time for the calls here. I'm not sure. But there still is the buy signal in effect that hasn't worked yet. GE was flat on average volume. INTC lost 30 cents. No trades there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. A long weekend ahead to prepare for the next week. The charts will need to be checked. I'm looking at the gold shares but again, with an extra week on the option cycle the premiums are high. So we'll see. For now it's time for a break and then back at it on Tuesday.

It was a downer today as the Dow lost 175 points on light volume. Advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative. Are the buyers done? Who knows? The expected rally may have come to an end. I would expect tomorrow to be higher but that's a guess for expiration. As I said before next week should be a downer. We'll see. Gold was little changed today and the XAU dropped 2 1/2. ABX was off over a buck on heavy volume again. It would seem people are bailing out of that issue at the moment. NEM was down as was HL. HL postponed the earnings release until next week. Interesting. Delaying the good news? Doubtful but I certainly don't know. There has been a buy signal for the gold shares for a few weeks. Eventually it will pan out. The question is when? Earlier, the buy signal could just be bought and it would work. That isn't happening this time. GE and INTC were both down on light volume. No trades there. Mentally I'm tired but the show must go on. If the market actually turns down here, it could get ugly. If the previous lows don't hold we will be in for trouble. There is an extra week on the March options, so the premiums are very high. There is nothing wrong with preserving your capital. When things are clear and there is a good signal, then you can put the money to work. Patience isn't always easy but it is always necessary.

The rally continues as the Dow gains 179 points. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive and the volume was average. No pullbacks for a chance to get long. And so it goes. Could we get 5 days up in a row? May happen but I will be expecting some weakness next week. That's my guess at the moment. What's next on the trading horizon? Nothing at the moment. Long weekend ahead and extra time on the March option cycle. Patience is required. Not always easy to do. Gold was about unchanged but the XAU was up 2 3/4 following the overall market for a change. Both ABX and NEM were fractionally higher. The volume in ABX expanded at the close, don't know what that's about. HL was upgraded by a firm and gained 5%. That reverses yesterdays action. Earnings tomorrow, should be interesting. INTC and GE were both up on light volume. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. 2 days left in the February option cycle and I'm still considering an OEX call trade if we get some weakness. But I probably will wait for next month to do something. Risk is something that cannot be ignored. There are no solid signals at the moment. It is not always easy to sit it out but that's what must be done sometimes. There is always another option cycle. That said, we'll see what happens.

We got the rally today with the Dow gaining 133 points. The advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. We were up over 200 at one point. The last hour we collapsed and then came back in the final 15 minutes. So it wasn't exactly a convincing rally. I was expecting weakness and that would have set up a good OEX call trade. Instead we've got todays action to work with. 3 days before expiration. If we pull back in the next day or so it might set up for an OEX trade. But it won't be easy. Still, I might give it a try but the risk may not be worth it. Gold got hammered today, off over $15. The XAU shed 5 1/2. ABX down 1 3/4 and NEM lost 2 1/4 on average volume. The gold shares were up briefly in the first 5 minutes of trading. When the market continued higher and the gold shares started to drop I was lucky enough to dump the ABX calls for a small profit. That was a trade I probably should of been out of yesterday. But it's easy to look back. HL was up pretty good again in the beginning of the day but closed down. I don't think the earnings will help now. INTC gained 1/4 but the volume is still light there. However perhaps the sellers are gone for now. GE was up 1/3 on light volume, was higher earlier. Mentally I'm a bit disappointed. I should have made more in the ABX trade but you do what you think is right at the time. What really was troubling was while watching that trade it took my attention away from the set up in the OEX. But what can you do? You gotta move on. I don't have any solid deas at the moment with the exception of a very short term OEX trade. We'll see.

We had a one day reversal to the upside today as the Dow was off over 100 points and came back to be up 58. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was Monday light. I'm looking at the OEX calls but they aren't cheap enough for me yet. My thinking is tomorrow could be a down day and that would give me a chance to purchase. Or perhaps the low was today for the near term. I am expecting some kind of rally this week, the timing is the issue. There is still an awful lot of premium in the OEX options with a mere 4 days to go. Gold was up $4 and the XAU gained about 3/4. ABX and NEM were both down fractionally. The ABX calls are still in the black but it's getting late technically. We are short term overbought here and almost at the short term down trend line in the XAU. We would need to break that line for this trade to work at the moment. I don't know if that will happen. And time is of the essence. I might just have to bail out there. Interesting that HL was up almost 5% today and I had given up on it. It has broken the near term down trend line. Earnings on Thursday. Another thing that I noticed today was massive volume on the ABX March 50 calls. The queston is were people buying or writing them? INTC was up 40 cents on light volume. GE was up a touch on light volume also. So really the question is was there enough volume to make this reversal day for real? Time will tell. Mentally I feel somewhat tired, did not sleep well. I'm also a bit apprehensive going into the expiration week. The risks are high and the time is dwindling. March has an extra week on the option cycle so the trading must be now but it can't be haphazard. Summation index still pointing higher. I do think we will get a rally but we need to get through tomorrow first. Whether or not gold comes along is up for debate at this point.

We were lower for most of the day as the Dow lost 65 points on lighter then lately volume. Advance/declines were negative. Certainly a lack of buying interest. That said, we are short term oversold here. I would have liked to have the guts to get long today. Perhaps on Monday after a check of things over the weekend. However at this point there is only a week left on the options and I think Tuesday could be a downer. But it's all just a guess. Gold was up over $12 and well above $900. The XAU gained over 6 points. ABX was up over 1 3/4 while NEM tacked on a buck. The volume was average but not as good as we have seen before. The ABX calls are in the black. I'll have to pick a target over the weekend. I do think the overall market will have a rally at some point next week. Not sure if gold will go along for the ride. I could be wrong. GE lost 40 cents on average volume. GE needs to show some life if the market is going to get going to the upside. INTC gained a little and the volume was light. The NASDAQ was higher today and it could be a precursor for next week. Or not. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. I do want to get some OEX calls next week but the price movement on the options isn't what I'd like. There is so much premium in them that movement in the OEX itself doesn't translate into the same movement in the price of the options. What you do see is a rapid time decay going on as the index moves up and down. So the timing both in and out has to be good or you'll lose money. I could just step aside and that is another possibility. For now it's the weekend and time for a break. Check the charts and get a game plan ready for Monday.

We were down, up, down and up again. It is that kind of market. The Dow closed up 47 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. I wouldn't mind having some OEX calls here but the premiums are really expensive. Plus this is a market that goes down 300 points out of nowhere. However it could go up 3oo points too. The previous lows are holding for now which is a positive sign for the bulls. Perhaps I'll get some OEX calls tomorrow. We'll see. Gold was up $5 today but the XAU was flat. Still getting a buy signal there. One of two things will happen. Either gold will start to fall or the XAU will start to rise to balance out the signal. Hopefully the XAU starts to rise since I bought some ABX calls today. ABX lost 1/3 on good volume today. NEM was up 1/3. We are oversold on ABX and there is a potetial double bottom in the XAU here. That could all be negated with downside action tomorrow. Gold was higher even with a stronger dollar today. Crosscurrents. However my thinking is that the market will get a rally here and take the gold shares with it. Or not. I had to adjust the order to get filled as nobody wanted to take my original offer. So we'll see. GE was flat on good volume. INTC didn't do much after being down early. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept OK. I could have waited on the ABX trade but I felt the timing had to be today. The attention that must be given once in a trade is so much more then the preparation for it. It's the nature of the game. There are no short cuts and the work has to be done. Hence, so many failures. Not that preparation isn't important, it certainly is. But when the money is actually out there, as opposed to thinking about it being out there, the intensity picks up. That's why the stop loss orders are important. Don't trade without them.

Another 65 points down on the Dow today as we couldn't hold a 100 point early gain. Advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative on average volume. Will the lows of a couple weeks ago hold? That's the question. I might get long weakness tomorrow or Friday for a short term pop. Gold had a good day, up $14. The XAU could only manage a 1 3/4 gain. It was higher earlier. ABX and NEM both came off their highs and finished positive at least. The volume wasn't strong there as it had been previously. I'd still like to get long the gold shares at some point. There is still a buy signal there but it hasn't worked this time. It will eventually. Perhaps before the earnings on the 21st. Or not. INTC lost about 20 cents. I still want to get some February calls here but the charts don't support it at the moment. Probably best to step aside but I still might give it a shot. GE was unchanged on average volume. No trades there, the weekly down trend line remains intact. Mentally I feel fine, got a good nights sleep. 7 days to go on the February options. Tough call. We could get a buy signal later this week and I think I'd give that a try. But the real trend is down for whatever reasons. Trades must be short term in the OEX to be successful at the moment in my opinion. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

What a day as the Dow lost 370 points. Down volume swamped up volume and the advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. I guess that relieves the overbought condition. Not sure what is going on at this point. I suppose this time we are going to retest the lows. That should be the next stop. Are we in a bear market? It looks like it when we have days like today. Let's face it, major up trend lines have been broken. Sideways is perhaps the best we can hope for at this point. Buying weakness is a short term proposition for now. Gold lost over $15 today and the XAU dropped 7 points. ABX and NEM were both down around a buck and a half. The buy signal for the gold shares remains but the prices are dropping. That is not a good sign. The dollar was pretty strong today and appears to be putting in a bottom. We do have earnings for a lot of the gold shares coming out on 2/21. That should be an interesting day. Forget HL and the earnings play for the February cycle. I looked at it, didn't do anything and now it has broken near term support. GE lost over a buck and the weekly down trend line remains in place. I think I'll leave it alone. INTC lost around 90 cents and I might try the calls here if they get cheap enough. Risky. Mentally I'm doing as well as can be expected. A lot of crosscurrents and of course the game is never easy. I'm going to try and wait for a decent signal in the OEX before placing the next trade. As always, ther is nothing wrong with preservation of capital.

It was a downer today on Wall Street with the Dow off 108 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were getting short term overbought and today will relieve some of that. I'm still thinking the trend is up but who knows? Summation index heading higher. I don't think that today is the beginning of a big down move. I could be wrong. Gold lost 4 bucks today and the XAU was off over 4 points. However it looks like we are getting close to another buy signal there. ABX down 1 1/2 and NEM down over 2 points. HL off a 1/4. I think we have more to go on the downside with these issues, even with a buy signal approaching. I am going to put buying HL calls before the earnings on the back burner for now. GE lost 80 cents on average volume. Not sure what to do there now. INTC down over 60 cents too. Indecision is where I am at the moment. It's not the place to be for trading. When I have an idea of what to do or get a decent signal, then it will be time to act. Less then 2 weeks on the February option cycle. Mentally I am hesitant here to do anything at the moment. I'm thinking perhaps a run up to a higher spot and then shorting the OEX. Or if we continue to sell off early this week perhaps try the calls. There is no rush to do anything right now. But that will change. Otherwise it's business as usual. On to tomorrow.

Even a bad employment report can't keep this market down as the Dow gains another 93 points on good volume. Advance/declines over 3 to 1 positive. The nation is losing jobs but the market is in bull mode. Which is why it's good to stick to the technicals. The news can be interpreted any way the market wants. We are getting overbought here but declines should be used to get long. However if we keep going straight up we will hit resistance soon and that would be a shorting opportunity. We'll see. Gold lost $15 today and the XAU fell 1 1/2 which wasn't too bad. ABX and NEM were both down on good volume. Have they turned down for now? Don't know. HL didn't do much. I'm thinking about the calls before the earnings in expiration week but I'm not completely sold on the idea anymore. It's possible that the dollar just might be putting in a short term bottom here. That's a guess but if correct it won't be bullish for gold. GE was up over 80 cents on good volume. I was thinking about getting some puts here on GE, short term. We are just about at longer term resisitance on a weekly basis. Will we continue higher and bust through the weekly down trend line? I would think we'd need a pause first since it has been straight up for days now. But I could be wrong. INTC up another 65 cents on OK volume. Just as GE has done, INTC is moving straight up. There hasn't been a chance to get the calls. Will these issues continue on a straight line up? That usually doesn't happen but it could. So caution is warranted at this time. However, if we are up in the beginning of next week, I'm going to look to go the other way. That's the thought at the moment. I'll have to check things out over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. The market would have been up even higher if MSFT had not put in a buyout for YHOO and lost 2 bucks. You get the feeling that all the sellers are out at the moment. There is no more selling the bad news. The high volume reversal last week remains valid. Time for the weekend and a break.

Another wild day of gyrations as the Dow gapped down 180 points at the open and ended the day up 207 points at the close. Volume was heavy and the advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. Todays action negates the one day reversal from yesterday. There was no follow through to the downside as had been expected. Summation index still pointing higher and the trend is up. It looks like there will be no retest of the lows. It's a little late to jump on board but if we do get more than one day of weakness, I'd look to get long something. Employment report tomorrow. Gold was up a couple bucks but the XAU lost 3 points. ABX and NEM both lost more than 1 1/4 on average volume. HL was down. Interesting to see the gold shares not participating in todays rally. Is it a sign of things to come? Stay tuned. I certainly don't know the answer to that. GE was up about 40 cents on heavy volume. Still no trades there. INTC up a half on good volume. I don't want to chase these issues here. If we get a pullback, then it's worth a shot. If not the sidelines are where to stay for now in my opinion. Mentally I'm feeling OK. No clear signals, short term, for now. Longer term the trend is up. Weakness can be bought. Sometimes the hardest thing to do is remain patient. It isn't an easy game and usually profits are not just going to be handed out. You've got to work for them. On to the employment report. I have no guess as to where that will come out but I don't think it will show a lot of new hiring in this type of market enviornment. We'll see.

Now that was a one day reversal. The Dow rallied almost 200 points after the Fed cut rates again only to fall back and end the day down 37 points. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was good. It was the opposite of last week when we got a positive one day reversal move. We'll see if this one follows through to the downside. GDP was weaker then expected. My thought on todays action was that all the good news from the Fed is over for now. What more can the Fed do at this point? It's lowered rates over a point in about a week. I think that's why we fell like a rock. Gold lost a few bucks and the XAU was up a couple points after the Fed. ABX was unchanged while NEM gained a buck. The volume wasn't as strong as it has been. HL didn't do much. I'm still thinking about the calls there before the earnings. INTC was up a touch on better volume. If we pull back I might try the calls there as well. GE was up 1/4 but was much higher earlier. No trades there. Mentally I slept well and am feeling fine. My thinking is that we now might get the retest of the lows set last week. That could set things up for the calls going into expiration. Or the lows won't hold and we're going lower. It's all a guess at this point. We could move higher tomorrow, negating todays action. So the market is in its usual state of flux. Employment report on Friday should be the next big mover. I'll be keeping an eye on things and looking for the next good opportunity.

We tacked on another 96 points today on the Dow. Volume was good and the advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. Waiting on the Fed tomorrow. A rate cut is expected, it's just a matter of how much. Should provide some fireworks one way or the other. I'm waiting to get long something if there is a pull back. May not get one. Gold lost a couple bucks and the XAU was down a point. ABX and NEM were both down on lighter then lately volume. HL didn't do much on light volume. I'm staying on the sidelines there. Still looking at INTC if we get some weakness. GE didn't do much today either. It seems as though some issues are in a waiting game for the Fed tomorrow. GDP report also early in the morning. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. I'm going to be patient here hopefully. I don't have any great signals at the moment. I am going to try and not force the issue. Sometimes that's not the easiest thing to do. I'm pretty sure the decline has ended at this point but I could be wrong. I would like to see a test of the lows, ideally. But again, that may not happen and I'll have to go from there. The summation index is pointing to higher prices and I don't really want to fight that. So we'll see what happens tomorrow and go from there. We are right at the short term down trend line for the OEX and have broken that line to the upside in the Dow. Perhaps that is a clue.

It was a good day for the bulls as the Dow gained 176 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. Even weakness in the foreign markets couldn't keep the Dow down. Lots of data this week with GDP, the Fed and the employment report. The summation index should be heading up again with todays action. Look to get long on weakness. Gold hit another record high today, up over $16. How long can it go on? Longer then I think probably. ABX and NEM were both up over a buck on good volume. The dollar was weaker once again. HL didn't do much. I would have expected something better then that with gold up so much. The XAU rose 3 points. Sure I'd love to have some gold share calls but it could be too late to try anything there. Or not. That is a dilemma. GE up about 3/4 but the volume was lighter then we've seen recently. Still you've got to like the direction there. INTC was up only 20 cents and the volume was light. I still might try some thing there but that sector has been lagging lately. Mentally I'm feeling good. Back to the normal schedule here and that will help. Plenty of time left in the February cycle but I must say the option premiums are still pretty high with all the recent volatility. That is an issue. I'm still thinking the way to go is long here, there is a lot of bearishness. But who knows? I've been wrong before. I'm going to look for a retest of the lows. If that occurs, I'll get long. If it doesn't happen I suppose I'll have to wait until we get back to the major down trend line, which is pretty far off. We are just about back to the short term down trend line for the OEX at about 635. What happens there could be the key for the rest of the week.

It was a day that started at the highs and closed at the lows. The Dow lost 171 points on good volume. Advance/declines were negative. Profit taking before the weekend? That's my guess. I will be looking at things to get long here. I think we will chop around and form a bottom. That doesn't mean I will rush in and buy something. But I'll be looking for an oversold condition and take my chances then. Gold was up another 5 bucks but the XAU closed off a third. ABX was up over 1 1/2 on good volume though. It remains a leader. NEM and HL were both up slightly. I may try some HL February calls but I need to check things out over the weekend. I think we are overbought but that doesn't mean we can't stay that way. GE lost a half on good volume. It hasn't acted that good since the initial surge off the lows. Probably won't go there. I'm keeping an eye on INTC and perhaps will try the calls there. It lost 3/4 on heavy volume today. Again , I'll have to check things out over the weekend. Mentally I'm tired from the seminar this week. I need to get back to the normal schedule and that happens next week. There is a lot to catch up on this weekend and I'll go from there.

2 positive days in a row for the Dow as we ended up 108 points. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive and the volume was very heavy. A correction for yesterdays volume. It was the heaviest that I have ever seen. My original volume figures were wrong. That means we had a one day reversal to the upside on heavy volume yesterday. The trend is now up, not down. We may go down and test the low but my guess is that we will trend higher from here. The summation index should turn around to the upside here as well. That doesn't mean we can't go lower at some point later this year. I'm saying that for now, the lows should hold in the near future. I will look to get long if we get some weakness. Gold was up over $20 today. Well there was a buy signal as I have stated in the past few days. They don't always work but this one did. The XAU soared over 10 points today. ABX and NEM were both up good on heavy volume. ABX seems to be taking the lead here as its relative strength is better than NEM again. HL gained over 50 cents. Perhaps I will try a trade here but the ideal time has passed for now. GE was up a bit on good volume. It rose in the last half hour after being negative for a good part of the trading day. May try something here but I'm leaning against it at the moment. Mentally I'm a bit frustrated not being able to follow the markets as closely as I usually do. That doesn't mean I would have made a bunch of trades that were profitable this week or losers. It just means I wasn't at the table to even have a chance. I'll be back in a normal mode on Monday and go from there. It's all I can do. I can't let a seminar week affect more than it already has. On to Friday.

Well it was another wild day on Wall Street. We did finally get the bounce though. The Dow closed up 299 points on what looks like light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. We were down over 300 points midday. It was that kind of day. The market rose over 100 points in the last half hour. I would have liked to see more volume today but we'll go from here. But where? We are still medium term oversold. I'm not ready to say the decline is over but it could be. There were some opportunities today. More later. Gold lost around $8 while the XAU lost over 5 points. The gold shares were a lot lower but came back with the overall market. ABX lost 1 1/4 and NEM dropped over 2 1/2. Both had very heavy volume. Volatility in the gold shares here also. There's still a buy signal there though. GE was one of the opportunities today as it sold off when the market was down and came back pretty good to finish up over a half on extremely heavy volume. The FEB 35 calls doubled. Another was INTC which I took a look at last night. It moved almost 10% in one day from the low to the high for today. That is unheard of. The FEB 20 calls quadrupled. In one day. I did not have the proper focus to take advantage of these trades. And who knows I may not have had the courage. As I stated yesterday, I'm in a seminar for most of the day. It was planned long before the action of this week which could not be known in advance. So I tread lightly. I did not leave in any orders today. I'll check the charts tonight and decide what to do from there. Success in the markets requires that you pay attention. If you cannot put forth the proper effort, I think it is better to step aside until you can. You gotta make the commitment. Mentally I'm a bit tired as my schedule isn't what it normally is. On to the charts...

The Fed to the rescue. Worldwide markets had plunged on Monday while the US was closed. The Dow was down over 450 points in the first half hour and that was after the Fed cut rates 3/4. The Fed action was enough to stop the wholesale selling and the Dow lost 128 points on the day. The volume was huge. It had to be to hold things up here. Advance/declines were negative. We are still oversold and I think a better bounce will come. Perhaps tomorrow or the next day. These are unprecedented times, that's for sure. And who knows? Today had the action of a blow-off bottom to it. Time will tell. On to gold. It was down over $20 at the open and closed up $9. I had an order in for ABX calls that wasn't filled. Money came back into gold as the dollar fell on the rate cut from the Fed. ABX was up over 2 3/4 on very heavy volume. NEM only managed a 1/4 point gain on heavy volume. HL was down a 1/4 on good volume and made a comeback from its lows. There remains a buy signal for gold here. I'll have to re-check the charts tonight but they will be sure to show some type of reversal. I had an order in for some GE calls and that wasn't filled either. GE was off about 20 cents on extremely heavy volume. I might actually try a trade here with GE since it is so blown out to the downside both short and medium term. We'll see. Mentally I'm pretty much spent. I am in a seminar this week and not in my usual routine. I'm tired form the early hours and hassles of traffic. I am able to place orders in the morning but my focus on the markets is limited. I am taking this into consideration when placing my trades. As always I am trying not to do anything stupid. My thinking is that we will see a nice up day this week. However the volatility has increased the premium in the option prices. That has to be taken into consideration. I will check the charts tonight and go from there. There is nothing wrong with letting things play themselves out here. Preservation of capital is a theme to remember. However, there is opportunity at the moment also. You don't make any money sitting on your hands. This is the dilemma at the moment.

Option expiration Friday before a long weekend. We were up 180, down 130 and ended the day off 60 points. It was that kind of day. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was extremely heavy again. The summation index has broken to the downside. Longer term up trend lines have been broken. Whatever is going on might take a lot longer than people think to work itself out. It's a great market to be short. Still oversold and due for a bounce. Gold was up a buck and the XAU rose almost 2 points. ABX and NEM were about unchanged on heavy volume. The options were just too expensive for me. I am getting a buy signal there though. Perhaps I'll give it a try next week. However the weekly charts are bearish after this weeks action. I'm also looking at HL at the moment. Earnings are due during the February option cycle. I will need to check the charts for these over the weekend. GE had good earnings and was up over a buck on very heavy volume. Perhaps this bodes well for the market going forward. But that's a guess. This is a very bearish market at the moment. That is fact. Mentally I feel OK. Slept well. Ongoing mental debate about getting long the gold shares here. I really would like to go out to March on these but the prices will be high. We'll see. It's tough to step up to the plate in times like these but it has to be done for profits. The problem is the ongoing uncertainty and its effects on market players including myself. But enough of that for now. It's the weekend and time for a break. I'll check the charts and take it from there.

It seems as if we are in crash mode. It doesn't exactly feel like it but you can't argue with price. The Dow lost 307 points. I will have to confirm the volume because it looks like the heaviest that I've ever seen. Advance/declines were over 5 to 1 negative. Oversold and staying there is always dangerous. The summation index should now be heading down without hesitation. I have support on the OEX at 620 and we are only 5 points away from that. Hopefully that holds up tomorrow or else I don't know where we're going. Gold lost a couple bucks but the XAU fell another 5 1/2. I am actually getting a buy signal again here for the gold shares. NEM and ABX were both down on heavy volume. The options are very pricey for February but the signal is there. Perhaps I'll pick something up tomorrow. It's tough in a market like this. But we'll see. GE lost 1 1/3 on double the normal volume. No need to wait for the earnings tomorrow, it's already fallen apart. It's that kind of market. Mentally, I got a good nights sleep and feel fine. The weakness that we are seeing doesn't bode well for the rest of the year. There will be rallies from time to time but you have to admit that the trend is down. What is means for the economy as a whole, I don't know. But it can't be good if we are dropping everyday like a rock. The market is as oversold as I have ever seen it and still continues to fall. I won't pretend to say that I know what will happen next because what normally works here isn't. I'll just hold tight for now and maybe pick up some gold shares tomorrow.

It's rock and roll on Wall Street as we're down, up and down. The Dow was all over the map today and closed off 35 points. Advance/declines were about even and the volume was extremely heavy. Considering the bad news in the tech sector, it could have been a lot worse. But it is a volatile environment. Trading can be very good or very bad in a hurry. I'm doing my best to sit it out this week but I'm always battling myself. Did want to get OEX calls at one point, watched them double and then end the day lower then the purchase price. That's the kind of thing that's going on at the moment. Gold dropped $20 and the XAU lost 9 1/2 points. It almost looked like another buy signal would occur. ABX lost almost $3 and NEM dropped over $2, both on heavy volume. I would like to get the March calls on those eventually to get the earnings report movement. The timing might be tough though. The dollar was stronger today and it looks like a double bottom could be in place there. Patience for now. GE lost a 1/4 on heavy volume. It was up over a half at one point. Friday will be interesting there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Also wondering when the markets will settle down into a more normal pattern. We are still oversold and have stayed there for quite some time. I'm getting trin readings that are off the charts. I would expect a pretty good snap back rally at some point. But that's a guess with the way things are going at the moment. Preservation of capital is not overrated.

The Dow got clobbered again today, off 277 points. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative and the volume was heavy. Blame it on weak retail sales, Citigroup, inflation or whatever you want. The summation index will now be pointing back down as we move back and forth on that indicator. We are oversold and staying there as we have been for weeks. That's never a good thing for the bullish cause. We closed at the low today also. It's interesting but trading this kind of market can be treacherous. I'll do my best not to attempt anything this week but there are no promises. Gold opened higher and closed lower for a one day reversal. The XAU lost over 6 1/2 points. The volume was very heavy on both ABX and NEM. NEM closed about unchanged while ABX lost a buck. They piled into the gold shares and now the question is are they about to pile out? Don't know. The Fed move is already in the market in my opinion. I think perhaps trading the earnings for the gold shares could be next. We'll see. GE was lower on heavy volume. No trades there but it's beginning to look like the downside is the way to go. Mentally I'm doing as well as can be expected. My thinking is that we are beginning a time in the markets that might be hard to make money on the upside. It is one of the weakest beginnings of the trading year that I can remember. The summation index is moving sideways yet prices continue to fall. I see support at the moment at 620 on the OEX and we aren't near that yet. It isn't a time to be calling any bottoms in the market. That's my guess. After the bell, Intel reported poor earnings and so tomorrows open should be ugly. We'll go from there.

The Dow gained 172 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. There were some good comments from IBM, which helped the tech sector. Plus it's option expiration week. But that could all change tomorrow with the inflation data. However the summation index should be turning up again and perhaps this time with some conviction. So we'll see. We're still oversold on a medium term basis. Gold continues higher, up another 5 bucks and closing above $900. The dollar was weaker today. The XAU gained over 3 1/2 points. ABX had heavy volume but only managed to rise 15 cents. NEM had a good day, up 1 1/2 on heavy volume. The last time these 2 issues diverged like that the uptrend just continued on. We'll see what happens this time. Money continues to flow into the gold shares regardless. GE gained a 1/4 on lighter than average volume. Earnings on Friday. It will be a market mover, the direction is what's in question. Mentally I feel OK, got a good nights sleep. Not sure I'll attempt a trade this week but you never know. Perhaps in gold or some OEX puts towards the end of the week. Obviously the NEM calls could have been held for a longer time. But you have to make the decisions as you move along. It wasn't going to be something that I felt comfortable holding for a while at the time. Where we go from here is what matters now. Long weekend approaching also and that could play into the mix. So we'll see the early data and go from there.

Back to the downside today as the Dow lost 246 points. Volume was heavy and the advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. Where we go from here is the question, with no easy answer. Option expiration week coming up. The summation index is moving sideways and that doesn't help matters. The downside bias does remain though. I don't think I'll be buying OEX calls next week but you never know. There are not any clear signals at the moment. Gold is the place to be, up another 4 bucks and touched $900 today. I would expect some profit taking here but it hasn't happened yet. The XAU gained 3/4. ABX was up good, by over 1 1/2 on heavy volume. NEM managed 3/4 on heavy volume too. I might try the NEM calls next week again but we are very overbought on the gold shares. However the last nice move in gold presented the same scenario with the overbought condition lasting for weeks. We'll see. It's the only trade on the horizon at the moment. GE was down 3/4 on good volume. Earnings in a week. I'll try my best to stay away from it. Mentally I feel fine, got a good nights sleep. I'll take the weekend for a little rest and checking of the charts. Inflation data out next week and that should be a market mover. Volatility remains so the option premiums are still very high. However by the middle of the week the premium will start to get sucked out rather quickly and the option prices will deteriorate. That's indeed something to take into consideration for any trades next week. Otherwise, it's the weekend and time for a break.

Big Ben flapped his gums today as the Dow gained 117 points. The volume was very heavy again. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. We opened down 100 and were up around 180 at one point. So the volatility continues and I don't expect it to go away anytime soon. The Fed said it's ready to cut rates again. I dumped the OEX calls for a gain of over 40%. Plenty of slippage on the fill as these markets are treacherous at times. But you've got to keep moving on. The calls could perhaps work again before expiration. I was early getting in on this trade and was lucky to get out. Gold was up over $11 and nears $900. The XAU gained over 2 1/2. ABX was down a half and NEM was up a point, both on heavy volume. You would think with gold up nicely all the gold shares would rally but that wasn't the case. My guess is profits were taken in ABX to be put to work elsewhere but that's just a guess. The volume in the NEM calls I'm looking at was extremely high, don't know what that means. GE was up about a dime on average volume. I think GE has to get going to the upside for any rally to have legs. Mentally I'm a bit tired, not enough sleep again. The short term trading requires a lot of commitment. You have to be up for the game and that's just to have a chance. I do prefer the longer time frame trades when they are available. However you also need to take advantage of opportunity. We have gotten the expected bounce that was long overdue. Where we go from here is any ones guess. We are probably going to have to test the recent low. What happens there will be the key for further out. 6 days before expiration. I might try the gold shares again or I might sit it out. Checking the charts tonight will be key and we'll go from there.

Well we got a bounce on extremely heavy volume. The Dow rose 146 points. Advance/declines were positive. Is this the start of something big to the upside? I doubt it. We are still below the daily down trend line. Getting through that would be constructive to the bullish cause. I still have the OEX calls but probably should have dumped them for a small loss today. I will be looking for some follow through to the upside tomorrow morning. If we get it, I'm out. I'm out anyway unless we break through the down trend line and that isn't going to happen. The timing going in was wrong and that's the story of that trade. Gold didn't do much today but the XAU gained a point and a half. ABX and NEM were both up on good volume but the moves weren't anything like they have been. I almost bought the NEM calls back again but NEM isn't acting as well as ABX as I've said before. I really think that I need to go out to next month on those, so we'll see. The dollar was up a touch today and appears to be perhaps putting in a bottom here. It isn't going straight down anymore. However I do want to own some gold shares ahead of the Fed later this month. GE managed a 30 cent gain on good volume. The $35 calls perhaps? I'll do my best to stay away from that issue. Mentally I feel OK. Would have liked to get a bit more sleep. The question now is, is that all there is to the bounce? Could be. The market isn't acting the way it usually does. I suppose it is letting you know that things are not going to be normal here for a while. It makes things tougher to trade. Time for the moves is compressed and you have to be ready for that. On to tomorrow.

The market is in crazy mode. It's the only way that I can describe it. My hope is that we don't crash tomorrow. The Dow lost 238 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. We are so oversold that I just cannot believe there hasn't been some type of bounce. That is what worries me. However the signal is there for calls so I bought some OEX calls. I had an open order in and it got filled. It has already lost 30% of its value. I'll have to sell it tomorrow probably, one way or the other. Summation index pointing down. We have broken through support. We'll see what happens Wednesday. Gold was up $18 today and the XAU rose 6 points. ABX and NEM were both up on heavy volume. But they came well off their highs. The relative strength of ABX was apparent as NEM sold off much more. I had to dump the NEM calls that I got yesterday to lock in a profit of 40%. There is a good chance that I will buy them back cheaper later this week, perhaps tomorrow. The money continues to flow into gold. However I could not wait around and hold these options forever. Not in a market like this. I'm probably better off with ABX anyway. GE lost 3/4 on average volume. Broken support there as well. Mentally I did not sleep well and feel a bit tired. Markets like the one we are in now offer opportunities. But they are also very challenging. You have to be up for the battle. I really expect a very fast, short covering rally here now. I don't expect it to last but I think it's tradeable. If we don't see that then we are really going to be in trouble. And we are in trouble already. There is nothing wrong with staying on the sidelines during times of duress. Preservation of capital isn't a bad thing. You can always wait for the markets to come back to some type of normalcy. However at the moment the markets are letting us know that these are not normal times. We'll see what tomorrow brings...

We had an up day for a change. The Dow gained 27 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were positive. The market has to bounce here. What it does after that is the question. We are at critical support for the OEX at around 660. Oversold and staying there which is never a good thing. I did have an order in late for OEX calls but we bounced in the last 15 minutes and it wasn't filled. I may or may not try again tomorrow. But that would be the trade here. Short term. Gold lost around $4 as the dollar had a good day. ABX and NEM both showed losses on heavy volume. That isn't promising for the bullish case. My order for NEM calls was filled and I almost was already stopped out. Perhaps this isn't the time to chase it. If I do get stopped out I will try and get something for February. We'll see what happens. GE was up slightly on heavy volume. The earnings are coming out a week from this Friday, not as I had previously stated that they would be out this Friday. I'm going to try and not trade it anyway. Mentally I feel fine, got a good nights sleep. I might try the OEX calls tomorrow if I get a chance or I might just let it go. We'll see. There is plenty of bearishness out there at the moment which in turn makes me feel good about going the other way. That and the fact that we are technically oversold makes the odds of getting calls here better than average. That's the feeling at the moment. Of course, that could all change tomorrow.

So much for getting OEX calls. I guess I finally got lucky yesterday when my order wasn't filled. The Dow sank today, off 256 points on good volume. Advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative. The employment report was very weak and the markets didn't like that. The summation index has rolled over to the downside. That said we are extremely short term oversold. There will be a bounce within the next 2 days in my opinion. I might attempt to play it. We'll see. Gold lost around 3 bucks and the XAU lost over 4 points. ABX and NEM were both down and that was to be expected after the recent incredible run-up. I have an open order in for some NEM calls. I think that gold is the place to be even with the recent upside. That is where the money is going. I could be wrong. GE lost about 80 cents on average volume and closed near its low. Earnings out in a week but this issue has already disappointed. Mentally I am tired, not a good nights sleep again. The market is telling us that trouble lies ahead. The year end rally never materialized. Whatever the reasons this year has started out to the downside. It isn't a good sign for the bulls. Capital preservation will be the key. I think that is what's important now. It's possible that we have quite a way to go down from here, roughly around 600 on the OEX. Monday will be interesting but for now it's the weekend. Time to regroup and get some rest. Check the charts and come up with a game plan for next week.

The Dow managed a 12 point gain on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were much higher during the day. I did place an order for OEX calls but wasn't filled. We are oversold and I guess I'll try and buy the calls again tomorrow on any weakness. Employment report due at the open. So we'll see what happens. Gold continued higher, up another 9 bucks. The XAU rose 6 points. ABX was up over $2 and NEM up over $1 on extremely heavy volume again. These stocks have gone up about 10% in 2 days! Amazing. I still want some calls there because that is where the money is flowing. Gotta wait for some type of pull back though. You cannot deny the strength of the gold shares here. There is a lot of publicity about the gold move in the media though. Sometimes that means a top is imminent. GE didn't do much on light volume. Mentally I'm a bit tired, up early and not enough sleep. The OEX call prices didn't move as much as anticipated with the upside earlier in the day. That concerns me going forward. The summation index is moving sideways here. It will break one way or the other. This really isn't a good start to the new year and that is a concern also. So there are questions about the market here that remain to be answered. No need to take chances at the moment.

It was a negative start to the new year as the Dow lost 220 points. Volume was light and the advance/declines were negative. However the advance/declines were not nearly as negative as a down 200 market would imply. We are oversold. I'm thinking that the OEX calls should have been bought today but I couldn't do it. The market is acting strange again and I don't know why. Employment report on Friday. We are due for some type of bounce. Indecision is not a good thing in trading. Gold had a stellar day up over $20. The XAU was up an astounding 11 points. Fear is driving money into gold. ABX was up 4 and NEM up 3 1/2 on extremely heavy volume. Money is flocking to gold. Obviously I should be in it and I'm not. I don't feel good about that. I might chase it here, even with todays action. We'll see. GE lost about a 1/4 on average volume which really was pretty good considering the overall market. Earnings a week from Friday. Will I attempt another trade there? Hopefully not. Mentally I feel OK, slept well enough. Somewhat disappointed with todays mental make-up but that's to be expected with such lousy trading results lately. I suppose I could say the same thing that I said at the end of the year. Weakness tomorrow should be bought. The summation index will be turning down today but it has been in a congestion zone. So there are crosscurrents to be worked out. I think following the money into gold might be a better play. But I'm not sure. I'll look at the charts tonight and take it from there...

We ended the year on a downer with the Dow losing 101 points. Advance/declines were negative but not as much as you would expect with a down 100 market. Volume was light. I would like to get some OEX calls here. We are moving to oversold. I expect a New Years rally on Wednesday. But I haven't been right about much lately. If we sell off on Wednesday, I'll get the calls. But more than likely, I've missed it. Gold lost about $5 and the XAU was off 3 points. ABX and NEM were both down on light volume. Gold calls? I'm thinking about it but I think the OEX might be a better trade. We'll see. GE lost 30 cents on light volume. I dumped the calls for another loss which simply added on to the horrible trading year that I've had. Better to start the new year flat with no 2007 hangover trades. Mentally I feel fine although I am not totally sure about the market here. We should have had some type of rally here and we haven't. It is unusual and I don't know what it means really. I do think OEX calls will work here near term. But I'm not 100% sure. When in doubt, stay out? Maybe. It's been a terrible trading year for me but things can't get any worse. It'll be back to the basics and smaller trading size until I can get into a positive trading mode. Focus and discipline must return. I for one am glad to put the 2007 trading year to rest. Time to look forward to 2008. Happy New Year!

Another day of not much as the Dow gained 6 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We are working off the overbought condition. One trading day left in the year. At least there was no follow through to yesterdays downside action. Gold rallied $10 and the XAU gained over 5 points. ABX soared over 2 1/2 on good volume. Who would have figured? Well there was a signal a few days ago and I didn't act on it. I was busy being stuck in a losing GE trade. And that is one of the things that must be corrected in 2008. Losing trades must be dumped. They take away too much attention to what is going on. NEM gained a buck also. The relative strength is in Barrick though and has been at the beginning of the gold share moves. GE was up a dime and I have an order in to sell the calls at a loss. If it isn't filled Monday morning, I'll dump them at the market. Mentally I'm a bit tired. Did not sleep as much as usual. Of course I'm disappointed for missing the move in gold but it's a broken record. You've got to move when the signal appears. There are no excuses. I will still try and make some money on this but have to wait for some type of pullback first. May not come. But that about sums up the terrible year of trading for 2007. I lost roughly 25% of my trading capital and that is a lot. Haven't had a year that bad in quite a while but it happened and you've got to move on. The focus and discipline necessary have to be obtained or it just doesn't work out. It isn't easy but it's not impossible either. It just takes a lot of work and you have to put the time in. There are no short cuts. You really need to stick to the trading plan with no exceptions. I'm going to take it easy this weekend and get ready for next year. It will be better...

Well it isn't a quiet holiday week as the Dow got clobbered and lost 192 points. Volume was light and the advance/declines were 3 t0 1 negative. Negative moves such as this are not common for this time of year. There were some outside influences as there was an assassination in Pakistan. But still, the market action wasn't typical for a holiday week. Gold was up a couple of bucks but the XAU lost 1 3/4. I would have thought gold would have rallied a bit more considering. ABX was higher and NEM was lower on increased volume. If the gold shares pull back here, I'm getting long. GE held up pretty good, only down 35 cents. The relative strength has been very good lately but I'm still probably gonna dump the calls for a loss and start the new year flat. GE would really have to rally in the next 2 days to keep me in this trade and I doubt that will happen. Mentally I am feeling fine. Slept pretty good. Getting ready for next year. Looking forward to putting this terrible year behind me. Nothing is easy in the game, this much we know. I'm really going to have to regain my focus for the new year and I'm sure I can do that. Success requires discipline and that is what I will work on the most. It isn't easy but it can be done.

Another slow day in the markets as the Dow gained 2 points on light volume. Advance/declines were about even. It's a holiday week. We are overbought. I don't expect much one way or the other. Gold had a good day up $13. The XAU rose almost 4 points. ABX and NEM were both up around 50 cents on light volume. Perhaps a sustained move is beginning in the gold shares. The volume is lacking though. I'm on the sidelines but am ready to get long there. Might have missed the signal though. GE was flat on light volume. I'm debating on whether to book the loss this year or see if we get some upward movement in the beginning of next year. There's also the earnings coming out in the 2nd week of January. Probably should just dump it and start the New Year fresh. We'll see. Mentally I'm a bit tired as I did not get a good nights sleep. I'm also trying to take it easy since things are so slow this time of the year. I'm trying but there is always some work that needs to be done. Saw a lot of volume in the GE January calls today for whatever reason. Interesting...

The Dow up 98 on holiday light volume. Advance/declines 3 to 1 positive. The Christmas rally continues. Gold was up a buck and the XAU rose a point. ABX and NEM were mixed. GE was up around 40 cents on light volume. All in all we are overbought here, however the summation index is pointing to the upside. It should be a light volume week with an upside bias. That's my guess for now. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays...

Better late then never for the Santa Claus rally as the Dow gained 205 points. Advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive and the volume was good. The OEX call trade would have worked if you waited until late in the week to buy them. Hindsight is always correct. Gold had a good day up $12. The XAU rallied over 6 points. Both ABX and NEM were up over a buck on good volume. Perhaps this was the week to buy the gold share calls. We'll see. GE even was higher by 66 cents and at one point was above 37.50. It sold off at the end of the day though. The volume was extremely heavy. We broke a daily down trend line. That's a positive. I'm still holding the calls, ever the optimist. But I still feel that in reality this trade is going to be a loser. I'm just trying to cut the loss to as small as possible. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. My thinking is that next week will be slow. I'll be taking it easy over the weekend and see where we go from here.

Up, down, up again today as the Dow gained 38 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We can't seem to gain any traction to the upside here as it has been a sideways to down affair for a while now. The market is oversold but it hasn't meant anything lately. Option expiration tomorrow. No Santa Claus rally yet. Summation index still to the downside. Gold lost a couple bucks and the XAU gained over a half. ABX and NEM were little changed on light volume. The dollar has firmed recently but looks overbought here. The gold shares are oversold also. No trades yet but the long side will be favored when the time comes. GE was up over 1/4 on light volume. Oversold here as well. It will take a miracle for this issue to get near a close of 37.50 tomorrow. I still think it's due for some type of upside here but it hasn't happened yet. Probably won't. The weekly MACD is as blown out to the downside that it could possibly get. I do need to bail out though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Slept OK. Waiting for an end of the year rally that looks like it will never come. Next week is bound to be slow. And so it goes.

Another wishy-washy day as the Dow lost 25 points. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was light. There is no conviction in the market these days with a bias to the downside. Maybe holiday mode has started early. I suppose that with all the uncertainty, people are holding back. Gold lost a couple of bucks and the XAU dropped a point. ABX and NEM both were down on light volume. I'll be patient there. I think that you have to be at this point. GE lost around 20 cents on average volume. We are at 36.62. We will get to 37.50 by the close on Friday? I doubt it. This trade is dead. Mentally I feel OK, got a good nights sleep. I suppose I'll just have to take my losses in GE and look forward to next year. It's really all that I can do. I'm going to have to have more discipline and work harder next year to get back to profitability. This was one of my worst years ever, for whatever reasons. You've got to put it behind you and start fresh next year. I will need to be prepared for the new trading year. So that's what I'll be doing for the next couple of weeks. Getting mentally ready to start the year off right. I'll also take a break since the markets will be thinly traded for the holidays. The market seems to be trading that way already.

Up, down and back up again as the Dow gained 65 points on better volume then yesterday. Volume on a daily basis has tapered off from what it was a month ago. Advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still pointing down but I am bullish here. I really think that we are going higher from here. But what do I know? I think that if we hold here you can make a case for a reverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily OEX chart. So we'll see. 3 days left until December expiration. OEX calls again on weakness tomorrow? Probably not. Gold was up 8 bucks today and the XAU rose almost 3 points. ABX and NEM both posted nice gains. I'm starting to think that it might be time to pick up the gold shares. The dollar is overbought and the gold shares are oversold. I'm pretty sure a longer term signal was generated yesterday. We haven't reached the weekly up trend line in ABX yet but if and when we do, calls will be in order. GE rose around 30 cents on average volume. At least it was up when the market acted better. Still need a weekly close of at least 37.50 to stay in that trade. Not there yet. Mentally feeling OK. Got a good nights sleep. Trying to do the right thing here which might be nothing at all. Next week is going to be slow with the market in holiday mode. That will most likely erode the time premium off of the January options. However I do expect some type of pop to the upside in the beginning of next year. So the best course of action at the moment could be inaction. But I've been wrong a lot this year. We'll see. There might be some opportunity to pick something up with the end of the year tax selling. Time will tell.

We gapped to the downside today as the Dow lost 172 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 4 to 1 negative. Opened lower and stayed there. The summation index indeed did turn around on Friday and now is heading south. I sold the OEX calls at a more then 60% loss. Buy'em Friday and sell them Monday. The market would have to rally over 400 points for those calls to come back. In 4 days. Ain't gonna happen. And so it goes. It's been a terrible year and I suppose that trade just caps it off. Gold was up about a buck but the XAU lost over 6 1/2 points. Again, gold itself and the gold index aren't moving in tandem. ABX and NEM were both down on good volume. I'm still on the sidelines there. GE lost about 40 cents on average volume. I almost just dumped these calls also but GEs relative strength has been pretty good as we've moved lower. Now I don't know what that will mean going forward if we just continue to decline. GE is at 36.48 and it will have to close the week at 37.50 or higher for me to stay in this trade. Mentally I feel OK, got a good nights sleep. It's been a bad year as I look back. The recent OEX trade as a case in point. I certainly could have waited to enter but it is always easy to look back. The discipline just hasn't been there for whatever reasons. You at least have to be in tune with the summation index on the indice trades. But what can I say? I just wasn't good enough this time around. Perhaps next year I will stick to gold and the OEX. I tried some other things this past year and none of them worked. My win % was horrible. That said, where do we go from here? Todays summation action could actually be a buy spike. That would mean that todays momentum will mark the low and we will trade higher from here. It sure doesn't feel like it though. But that's just a guess and my guesses haven't really panned out lately. So we'll see what tomorrow brings and keep an eye on GE.

The week ended on a down note with the Dow off 178 points. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative and the volume was light. The inflation data was higher then expected. We closed near the low of the day. I bought some OEX calls for next week but I'm thinking I could have waited until Monday. We are short term oversold however the summation index might be heading back to the downside after todays action. It's a tricky call. Gold lost 6 bucks today on a stronger dollar. The XAU lost 2 3/4. NEM and ABX were both down on light volume. Gold has lost its luster for the time being. No trades there for now. GE lost over 50 cents on average volume. Unless we get a decent rally in GE next week, this trade is dead and I will be exiting. We closed just below the weekly up trend line and that is not a positive. If however GE can get moving to the upside next week, I'll probably stick around a bit longer. But it doesn't look like it at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I still have a feeling that we are setting up for a rally into next year but I could be wrong. I didn't like the way we closed today for the bullish case. Monday will be important if things are going to turn around. There are only 5 days left in the option trade I initiated today. That isn't the smartest thing in the world to do. So we'll see what happens. It's time for a break and then check the charts over the weekend.

Volatility remains as the Dow was down 100 points but came back to finish the day up 44. Advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative and the volume was average. The inflation data was even stronger then predicted but the market came back. However the signals are mixed at the moment. I did have an order in for some OEX calls but wasn't filled. If we sell off again tomorrow I might try it again. I did think the inflation data would be less then expected and was wrong today. We'll see about tomorrow. Negative advance/declines on an up day isn't the most bullish scenario. Gold lost over $14 today and the XAU fell 5 points. ABX was down over 1 1/2 on good volume. NEM only lost 50 cents on average volume. ABX is beginning to interest me on a weekly basis but I haven't gotten a buy signal in gold yet. The dollar has stopped going down for now also. GE was up a third on average volume and I'm beginning to like the relative strength there. How we close out the week tomorrow will be key once again but it looks like the weekly uptrend line will hold at this point. That could all change tomorrow though. Mentally I got a good nights sleep and feel fine. I do like the way that the market came back today but the breadth wasn't good. However when you get bad news like we did today on inflation and the market shrugs it off, it has me believing that higher prices are in the offing. But you never know. Expiration week coming up and I'll be looking for the positive bias. That said, anything can happen. On to Friday and the CPI.

The volatility has returned to Wall Street. The Dow closed up 41 points on heavy volume. We opened up over 200 points and gave it all back and were down 100 points before a late comeback. Advance/declines were positive. I can't say that I know what is going on here. You really would have to take your profits quickly trading the indices. That is if you had any profits. I'm still leaning to the call side for the OEX but I have no trades there at the moment. Inflation data the next 2 days. The expectation is for some big numbers. I don't think that is going to happen but what do I know? Gold was up over a buck but the XAU rose more then 3 1/2 points. These two haven't been in sync lately. ABX and NEM were both up on average volume. Not trades there for now. GE was up about a quarter on heavy volume. It mirrored the market opening much higher and then selling off to be negative. It made a last hour comeback. The options aren't doing much though. Waiting for the weekly close. Mentally I'm tired, slept OK but not enough. Suffice it to say a market that opens much higher and cannot hold its gains just isn't bullish. I have no answers there. Hopefully we will get the selling out of the way here and head higher into the expiration. But that is a guess. It's anything goes at this point. There is nothing wrong with being on the sidelines until things work themselves out. I suppose I will try and be patient and wait for a valid signal. But you never know. So we'll see what the markets reaction to the inflation data is and take it from there.

Oh that Fed. They certainly are a market mover. The Dow lost 294 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. We were overbought and the rally had been on light volume. So to see a decline on the news today was not a surprise. However I did not expect such a dramatic one day move. It doesn't change what I think though. There will be a chance to get some OEX calls this week for expiration. I could be wrong if we just continue to tank out here. But I'd expect some sideways action and then we head higher. Gold turned around to the downside after the Fed as the XAU lost over 6 1/2 points. ABX and NEM were both down around 1 3/4 on good volume. No need to rush into the calls there. Just the opposite I'd expect. GE lost about 50 cents on heavy volume. GE had nothing to say that the analysts liked at todays meeting. It was down well over a dollar at one point. I must say it held up pretty good considering todays overall market action. The volatility threw in a little more premium for the options too. How it closes the week is the key and it's only Tuesday. Mentally I didn't sleep well. I'm also disappointed that I did not purchase some OEX puts before the Fed announcement as well as some gold puts. I was confused on gold for a time but I did expect a decline on the news from the Fed today. I also had previously thought that the OEX puts would not be worth trading on this news but the prices got pretty cheap pre-Fed. We also went right up to a daily downtrend line in the OEX and turned around. I was preoccupied with the GE trade. This I recognize but it doesn't make it any easier going forward. I was looking at the OEX puts but decided to sit tight. That was a mistake. So well see what happens from here. I will get the OEX calls when a signal appears. Even with todays negative action the summation index is still heading higher. I will not try and ignore that.

The Dow gained 101 points today on light volume ahead of the Fed. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. We are overbought here and I expect a sell-off after the Fed announcement. I don't think it will be the beginning of anything big. It will possibly be a chance to pick up some OEX calls for expiration week. Gold rose $13 today and the XAU followed, up over 2 points. ABX and NEM were both higher by about 80 cents however the volume was light. Not a lot of volume before the Fed. GE was up around 20 cents on good volume before the analyst meeting tomorrow. Perhaps there will be some good news to propel the stock higher. I hope so for my options sake. Technically speaking, the weekly up trend line in GE has held for now. As long as it holds, I'm staying in the trade. Mentally I feel fine, got a good nights sleep. Tomorrow is all about the Fed and once that is done we will get back to the data. What was interesting about today was the fact that another brokerage had to increase its loan loss yet the Dow was up a hundred. When the market rises in the face of bad news, it's bullish. That's why I feel that even if we sell off tomorrow we will be coming back soon. But that's a guess as always. The market will go where it wants and do what it wants.

It was a day of rest for the market today with the Dow up 5 points on light volume. Advance/declines were about even. We most likely stop going up here for a while as the market is overbought. I think we sell off after the Fed on Tuesday. However I don't think any long lasting declines are in the cards at the moment. Any selling will be a chance to get some OEX calls. I don't think it's worth it to try and play the declines because the trend is up. The summation index is pointing higher. The Employment report was a non-event as the numbers weren't skewed one way or the other. Today gold fell over $6 but the XAU barely moved. Again this index isn't following gold itself which makes it hard to trade right now. ABX and NEM were both off about a half on so-so volume. Sidelines for now. The US dollar has stabilized here lately which means no big moves for gold like we've seen in recent months. GE didn't do much on less then average volume. The options just hung around also. It looks like the weekly up trend line has held for now. But next week could be a different story. There is a GE analyst meeting next week which should be a mover. However it may be overshadowed by the Fed. Time will tell. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 2 weeks left for the December option cycle. I might make another trade this year if something looks good. I'm leaning towards the OEX calls at the moment. The weekend is here, time to check the charts and come up with a game plan for next week.

It was another positive day on Wall Street as the Dow rose 175 points. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive but the volume was a little light again. I am surprised by the strength of this move. That said I think we are due for a rest. We can't just go straight up from here can we? I doubt it. In fact I wouldn't mind owning some puts right here as we are just about at a daily down trend line on the OEX. Plus the volume hasn't been as robust lately. Employment report tomorrow. I don't have any inkling this month for the numbers. Gold rose $3 today and the XAU followed the market higher by 3 1/2. ABX and NEM were both higher today. The former on average volume the latter on lighter volume. I'm staying out of this market for the time being. I will be getting long again eventually. However when that will be, I don't know. I haven't had a good feel or decent technical signal since the big run-up concluded. GE was up a half on light volume. Perhaps the weekly up trend line will hold. The weekly MACD is so blown out to the downside that I now think that this trade has a chance to work. The options didn't do much today though. So we'll see. Mentally I am a bit tired as I did not get a good nights sleep. Today the Federal government announced a bailout sub-prime package. I'm not here to discuss the merits of this thing. The only thing that is important is the markets reaction to the news. It was positive. It doesn't matter if the plan works or not. You have to respect price movement. Trading is about making money, not whether or not you agree with what the government is doing. We will get another dose of this next week with the Fed announcement. On to the employment report.

Back to the upside as the Dow had a nice gain of 196 points, ignoring bad news about credit for a change. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. Volume still looks a little light though. I'd expect tomorrow to be a holding pattern day before the employment report. So the higher price scenario remains in place for now. Gold lost around 4 bucks with the XAU up a half. ABX and NEM were lower, with ABX leading the way. The US dollar is trying to form a bottom and I think that it will for now. So I can't get all that bullish for gold at the moment. There will be a time to get long the gold shares but I don't think that the time is now. I could be wrong. GE was up over 40 cents on again heavy volume. You really would want to see GE up better then that with the market tacking on almost 200 points. That said, the GE RSI indicator is showing a positive divergence with price and that could be a good sign for higher prices. Or not. The options aren't moving much. How it closes out the week will be the key for staying or leaving. At this point it isn't looking favorable on a weekly basis. But stranger things have happened. Mentally I'm feeling OK but didn't sleep as good as possible. Trading is never an easy task. You really need to keep it as simple as possible. And be honest with yourself. If things aren't working you may need to change things. If things are working, you still need to keep a sharp eye on things. The work never stops. You need to be up for it. Lazy won't cut it.

Another light volume decline for the Dow as it shed 66 points. Advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. Either my scenario for higher prices is going to come true or their is no buying interest and prices will fall much lower. The beginning of the month usually attracts capital and positive money flows. Hasn't happened yet. The summation index is moving higher and prices are dropping. We did have to work off the overbought condition and I believe that is what's happening now. So we'll see. Gold had a good day, up over $12. However the XAU fell a point. ABX and NEM were both down on light volume. Normally the gold shares would have had a good day with a decent rise in gold itself. I certainly don't know what is going on there at the moment. Sidelines for now. GE lost even more ground today, off around 60 cents. The volume was extremely heavy again. Unless we get some type of dramatic turnaround in GE by the end of the week, the recent option trade is dead. Perhaps this is a high volume break of the weekly trend line. It certainly could be. If it is then I would expect the overall market to follow. There's still 3 days left this week but it is beginning to look more and more as if GE is toast for the time being. The weekly indicators are in oversold territory though so you never know. We'll know by Friday though in my opinion. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The market seems to be following what I think it should do here. But that could change in a moments notice. However I have seen in the past where the beginning of December marks a low for the indices and they trend higher from there. I'm not saying that is the case this time around but it could be. Presidential election year coming up along with the markets favorable period. Or it will be the beginning of another bear market. Time will tell.

The Dow lost 57 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. A pullback here is expected and needed if the rally is going to have legs. A positive was the lighter volume to the downside. I'll still remain constructive on the market unless we take out the November lows. I don't think that's going to happen. But what do I know? Gold gained $5 as the US dollar was weaker. ABX and NEM were both up over a half but the volume was light there as well. I think gold may have more room to go on the downside but I'm not sure. I really need to get a better handle on it to make a trade. Sidelines for now. GE was in the spotlight today as it was downgraded by some analyst and got pounded down a buck forty. The volume was extremely heavy. Does it bode ill will for the overall market ahead? Maybe. My hope is that today got rid of all the sellers and we will move sideways and return to the upside. That said, this trade was initiated on a weekly basis, so the end of the week close is what's important here. My options are again in the red but not as bad as I'd expect after a day like today. So we'll see. Mentally I'm a bit tired. Would not be surprised if we see weakness until Fridays employment report. What I don't want to see is a complete collapse from here. A slow steady decline would make me feel the prognosis for higher prices is correct. It's also possible we won't do much until the Fed meeting next week. That's unlikely but possible. So as usual it's a wait and see type of game. I'll be looking for some OEX calls if we get oversold.