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Tuesday, December 04, 2007

Another light volume decline for the Dow as it shed 66 points. Advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. Either my scenario for higher prices is going to come true or their is no buying interest and prices will fall much lower. The beginning of the month usually attracts capital and positive money flows. Hasn't happened yet. The summation index is moving higher and prices are dropping. We did have to work off the overbought condition and I believe that is what's happening now. So we'll see. Gold had a good day, up over $12. However the XAU fell a point. ABX and NEM were both down on light volume. Normally the gold shares would have had a good day with a decent rise in gold itself. I certainly don't know what is going on there at the moment. Sidelines for now. GE lost even more ground today, off around 60 cents. The volume was extremely heavy again. Unless we get some type of dramatic turnaround in GE by the end of the week, the recent option trade is dead. Perhaps this is a high volume break of the weekly trend line. It certainly could be. If it is then I would expect the overall market to follow. There's still 3 days left this week but it is beginning to look more and more as if GE is toast for the time being. The weekly indicators are in oversold territory though so you never know. We'll know by Friday though in my opinion. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The market seems to be following what I think it should do here. But that could change in a moments notice. However I have seen in the past where the beginning of December marks a low for the indices and they trend higher from there. I'm not saying that is the case this time around but it could be. Presidential election year coming up along with the markets favorable period. Or it will be the beginning of another bear market. Time will tell.

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