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Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Oh that Fed. They certainly are a market mover. The Dow lost 294 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. We were overbought and the rally had been on light volume. So to see a decline on the news today was not a surprise. However I did not expect such a dramatic one day move. It doesn't change what I think though. There will be a chance to get some OEX calls this week for expiration. I could be wrong if we just continue to tank out here. But I'd expect some sideways action and then we head higher. Gold turned around to the downside after the Fed as the XAU lost over 6 1/2 points. ABX and NEM were both down around 1 3/4 on good volume. No need to rush into the calls there. Just the opposite I'd expect. GE lost about 50 cents on heavy volume. GE had nothing to say that the analysts liked at todays meeting. It was down well over a dollar at one point. I must say it held up pretty good considering todays overall market action. The volatility threw in a little more premium for the options too. How it closes the week is the key and it's only Tuesday. Mentally I didn't sleep well. I'm also disappointed that I did not purchase some OEX puts before the Fed announcement as well as some gold puts. I was confused on gold for a time but I did expect a decline on the news from the Fed today. I also had previously thought that the OEX puts would not be worth trading on this news but the prices got pretty cheap pre-Fed. We also went right up to a daily downtrend line in the OEX and turned around. I was preoccupied with the GE trade. This I recognize but it doesn't make it any easier going forward. I was looking at the OEX puts but decided to sit tight. That was a mistake. So well see what happens from here. I will get the OEX calls when a signal appears. Even with todays negative action the summation index is still heading higher. I will not try and ignore that.

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