Monday, December 17, 2007
We gapped to the downside today as the Dow lost 172 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 4 to 1 negative. Opened lower and stayed there. The summation index indeed did turn around on Friday and now is heading south. I sold the OEX calls at a more then 60% loss. Buy'em Friday and sell them Monday. The market would have to rally over 400 points for those calls to come back. In 4 days. Ain't gonna happen. And so it goes. It's been a terrible year and I suppose that trade just caps it off. Gold was up about a buck but the XAU lost over 6 1/2 points. Again, gold itself and the gold index aren't moving in tandem. ABX and NEM were both down on good volume. I'm still on the sidelines there. GE lost about 40 cents on average volume. I almost just dumped these calls also but GEs relative strength has been pretty good as we've moved lower. Now I don't know what that will mean going forward if we just continue to decline. GE is at 36.48 and it will have to close the week at 37.50 or higher for me to stay in this trade. Mentally I feel OK, got a good nights sleep. It's been a bad year as I look back. The recent OEX trade as a case in point. I certainly could have waited to enter but it is always easy to look back. The discipline just hasn't been there for whatever reasons. You at least have to be in tune with the summation index on the indice trades. But what can I say? I just wasn't good enough this time around. Perhaps next year I will stick to gold and the OEX. I tried some other things this past year and none of them worked. My win % was horrible. That said, where do we go from here? Todays summation action could actually be a buy spike. That would mean that todays momentum will mark the low and we will trade higher from here. It sure doesn't feel like it though. But that's just a guess and my guesses haven't really panned out lately. So we'll see what tomorrow brings and keep an eye on GE.