Monday, February 11, 2008
We had a one day reversal to the upside today as the Dow was off over 100 points and came back to be up 58. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was Monday light. I'm looking at the OEX calls but they aren't cheap enough for me yet. My thinking is tomorrow could be a down day and that would give me a chance to purchase. Or perhaps the low was today for the near term. I am expecting some kind of rally this week, the timing is the issue. There is still an awful lot of premium in the OEX options with a mere 4 days to go. Gold was up $4 and the XAU gained about 3/4. ABX and NEM were both down fractionally. The ABX calls are still in the black but it's getting late technically. We are short term overbought here and almost at the short term down trend line in the XAU. We would need to break that line for this trade to work at the moment. I don't know if that will happen. And time is of the essence. I might just have to bail out there. Interesting that HL was up almost 5% today and I had given up on it. It has broken the near term down trend line. Earnings on Thursday. Another thing that I noticed today was massive volume on the ABX March 50 calls. The queston is were people buying or writing them? INTC was up 40 cents on light volume. GE was up a touch on light volume also. So really the question is was there enough volume to make this reversal day for real? Time will tell. Mentally I feel somewhat tired, did not sleep well. I'm also a bit apprehensive going into the expiration week. The risks are high and the time is dwindling. March has an extra week on the option cycle so the trading must be now but it can't be haphazard. Summation index still pointing higher. I do think we will get a rally but we need to get through tomorrow first. Whether or not gold comes along is up for debate at this point.