It was quite a final day for 2012 as the Dow rallied 166 points on better volume than we have seen lately.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive.  The tax deal is finally coming together but it hasn't been finalized as of yet.  Investors are front running the expected beginning of the year positive money flows.  I did want to get some January OEX calls but the premiums were so inflated that I stepped aside there.  Today stops the down trend for now but the volatility has definitely picked up.  We should rally when the markets reopen on Wednesday.  What happens after that is the main question.  GE had a huge move, up 55 cents on good volume.  We should be able to build on that going forward as well.  Gold was up as well.  The precious metal futures rose almost $20.  The US dollar was little changed on the day again.  The XAU gained 5 points.  ABX, GG and NEM were all up at least a buck on average volume.  I did place an order during the day for some January ABX calls again but it wasn't filled.  I believe that money will make its way into the gold shares at the beginning of next year as well.  I may try the ABX calls again on Wednesday if we get some weakness early.  We'll see.  I haven't done too well with this trade lately.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are getting the expected pop in the stock indexes with the resolution to the tax situation.  The over the counter stocks are moving even better to the upside and that is a positive going forward.  The stock indices were also short term oversold, so a move higher is no surprise.  Gold had a decent day but we will have to see if there is any follow through to the upside.  Gold has been dead money for quite a while.  I do think that I will try the January ABX calls again though.  It's a holiday tomorrow and perhaps the tax deal will be done by the open on Wednesday.  Most foreign markets are closed tonight as well.  So we'll take a day off and keep an eye on the news out of Washington.  A Happy and Prosperous Trading New Year to all. 

Another down day for the Dow as we did not build on yesterdays comeback.  It was important for the bulls to have some follow through to the upside today and we didn't get it.  These are very thinly traded markets in a holiday week.  The Dow fell 158 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  Still waiting on Washington to come up with a tax deal but it hasn't happened yet.  Might not happen before the end of the year deadline and not many expected that.  The stock indices are now short term oversold.  Any sign of a tax deal should spring some type of rally.  The OEX options are richly priced here though, with 3 weeks left in the January cycle.  GE fell 1/4 on light volume.  The 200 day moving average may provide some support at the $20.25 level.  Oversold short term here as well.  Gold fell $7 on the futures today as the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU dropped 1 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  The bollinger bands are converging on the daily charts for these gold stocks.  That usually implies a major move is about to occur.  Which way is the question.  I just might try the ABX January calls again if we get some decline next week.  The gold shares are getting short term oversold once again.  That hasn't led to any type of sustained rally for the past couple of months though.  Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The stock indices are in decline due to the uncertainty coming out of Washington.  Headline risk remains firmly in place.  The trouble is that this dilemma could be solved overnight.  That will have quite an impact on the markets and trading.  The risk level in the game right now is very high.  However with risk there also comes reward.  It is something to think about over the weekend.  Gold continues to languish and still appears to be dead money.  I'm thinking that some money could flow into the gold shares early next year due to there low prices.  But as usual I could be wrong and I was wrong quite a lot this year, especially with the gold shares.  My trading account for 2012 ended the year with a loss of 11%.  I have already began to regroup for next year, which begins next week.  We will have to keep our eyes peeled for the news out of Washington over the weekend.  The stock indexes are still being held hostage by the politicians.  There is some support for the S&P 500 at the 1390 level, which is the 200 day moving average.  We are already oversold and a break of that could take us back to 1350 rather quickly.  But any announcement of a deal should rocket the indices back to the upside.  The game is never easy.  But for now it's the last Friday afternoon in December.  Time for a break.

Lower again today but the market did make quite a comeback as the Dow fell 18 points on light volume.  We were off around 140 points during the session.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Still waiting on a tax deal in Washington.  Todays candlestick chart for the Dow could be a bullish hammer but we will have to wait and see what transpires in the next couple of trading days.  Some kind of deal will get done sooner or later.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was average.  Perhaps it's time to try the calls there.  I remain on the sidelines though.  Gold was up $3 on the futures and the US dollar rose slightly as well.  The XAU gained 7/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains or losses on OK volume.  Gold continues to look like dead money.  There is a lot of uncertainty in the marketplace right now and there is no flight to gold.  Perhaps that will change next year but for now gold remains an under performer.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Even though it is a holiday week, tomorrow could be important.  If we continue to rally it would be a positive sign on the charts.  If not, then we would probably be heading into an extended decline.  That is my best assessment at the moment.  There will be some kind of tax deal sooner or later.  The key I think will be how the market reacts after that.  Gold continues to disappoint on the upside but I am still looking at the gold share calls.  If we get a drop to the $1620 level on gold, that may take out the rest of sellers.  Just a guess as usual.  We'll monitor the news overnight and take it from there.

Holiday light trading is the theme as the Dow fell 24 points on half of a normal days volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  No Santa Claus rally so far this year with the troubles out of Washington.  The tax issue should be resolved within the next week.  We'll watch for the market reaction after that event.  Until then it is simply a wait and see environment.  I have no OEX trades in mind for now.  If we get short term oversold I may try the January calls.  GE was off just a touch again on very light volume.  Nothing doing there really.  A lot of companies are in a holding pattern.  Gold was up a buck and the US dollar fell just a bit.  The XAU gained 3/4.  ABX and GG were up 1/3, while NEM gained 7/8.  Volume was light.  The gold shares outperformed gold today.  However we are in such a lightly attended point in time, it's hard what to make of it.  Perhaps this is the start of the rally in the gold shares that I've been looking for.  But I have already tried and failed here so much that I probably will not try again here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just 3 trading days left this year.  The stock indexes are waiting on Washington.  We normally get a nice rally when the new year begins.  If we get a tax deal as well, it could be quite a bump up.  But that is just another guess.  Technically the stock indices are no longer short term overbought but they're not oversold yet either.  Gold is still trying to hang on at the 200 day moving average.  Expect more light volume trading tomorrow.

The markets closed early today in a holiday shortened session.  The Dow fell 51 points in a very thinly traded, light volume affair.  The advance/declines were negative.  It doesn't look like there will be any buyers until we get something positive out of Washington.  There will be some kind of tax deal sooner or later.  We'll watch for what the markets do after that for a better idea of where we're headed.  GE was off a touch on very light volume.  No trades there for now.  Gold and the US dollar were basically flat on the day.  The XAU was up 1/3.  ABX and GG had fractional gains, while NEM had a fractional loss.  The gold shares remain oversold.  I think we could see a decent rally there at any time.  However I have tried the gold share calls a few times lately and they simply have remained oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market remains hostage to the situation in Washington.  This will resolve itself eventually and probably pretty soon.  Until then the stock indices should be on hold or move lower.  Gold is trying to hold at its 200 day moving average.  We'll have tomorrow off and then back to it on Wednesday.  It should be a very light volume holiday week for the markets.

It's all about the headlines coming out of Washington at this point.  The Dow fell 120 points on expiration heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  No tax deal yet and the stock indices are now nervous.  I still think they will get something done by the new years deadline.  It is how the market reacts after that which is what you should be watching.  We're still overbought on the short term technicals.  GE was off a bit over 1/8 and the volume was very heavy again.  Getting oversold on a daily basis here but it's not all the way there yet.  I have no trades in mind here at the moment.  Gold bucked the trend and rose $14 on the futures even with a stronger US dollar.  An oversold bounce or the flight to safety?  I certainly don't know which it was.  The usual inverse relationship between the dollar and gold remains not to be in place.  It's been that way for a while and I don't know what to make of it.  The XAU was up 1/4 today.  ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM had a fractional gain.  The same results as yesterday.  Volume was very heavy.  I would like to try the calls on ABX again but it hasn't worked lately.  It is both short and medium term overbought.  That hasn't meant much lately though.  I'll ponder it over the weekend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Had some internet issues during the trading day and that is never a good thing.  Some of the stock indexes had gaps lower today and that isn't a positive sign for the bulls.  However in this headline driven atmosphere, and announcement of a tax deal could send us back to the upside in a hurry.  We'll find out in a matter of days.  It's a holiday week next week and that could skew things with the lack of volume.  Even with todays move higher, gold hasn't been acting well lately and we broke the support at $1680.  The gold shares are still oversold and have been for a while.  Yet there hasn't been any rally.  So we'll see.  I'll go over the charts this weekend and keep an eye out on the news from Washington.  For now it's a December evening and time for a break. 

The Dow gained 59 points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  One minute there is a tax deal and the next minute there isn't.  That is the type of environment we are in for now.  Eventually a deal will get done.  The question is what happens after that?  We're still overbought on the stock indices.  That hasn't seemed to matter lately.  The summation index continues higher and the trend remains up until further notice.  GE was up 1/4 on better than average volume.  I'm not sure that I'm going to try anything with GE right here.  Gold fell again as we have broken through support earlier this week.  The precious metal futures fell another 20 bucks today.  This, despite the US dollar moving lower yet again.  The XAU is outperforming the metal here but that means that it is dropping less, relatively.  It fell 7/8 today but there is a potential hammer or morning star on the daily candlestick chart.  ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM was actually up 1/3.  Volume was good for the gold shares.  Nobody wants gold at the moment.  Usually a good time to buy things is when nobody wants them.  But that is a longer term strategy.  For trading purposes gold broke support at $1680.  The next support is $1620 followed by around $1550.  The gold shares are oversold, remain oversold and have been a place to be short, not long.  As long as the relationship between the dollar and gold is inverse to what it should be, it probably isn't time to get long.  But my ideas and thinking haven't been working lately.  So consider that as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still at the mercy of headline risk in the stock market.  Money seems to be flowing into stocks regardless for now.  We've got the positive holiday bias coming up and the start of the new year as well.  Expiration Friday tomorrow and then we should be going into holiday mode for next week.  But we still have Washington and the tax deal to get through.  We'll see what happens tonight and what is announced before the weekend. 

A reversal of sorts today as the Dow fell 99 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  Headline risk is going to be the norm from now on until Washington sorts out the tax deal.  Today the news was negative and down we went.  The stock indices were short term overbought anyway, so some decline could be expected.  Some of the technicals, such as the trin, were and are very overbought.  Things can turn on a dime now as we head closer to the end of the year.  I'm still going to be looking for some type of Santa Claus rally next week.  GE fell 2/3 on very heavy volume.  This was a pretty big move for GE.  If GE is a harbinger of things to come, we could see a nasty decline in the overall market.  I would expect to see some support here at the $20 level if the fall continues.  Gold fell a couple of bucks on the futures as the US dollar finished the day little changed.  The XAU was off 1 2/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  I'm considering trading a basket of the gold shares, GDX, when I'm ready to try gold again.  Perhaps at the beginning of next year.  The gold shares remain oversold.  Mentally I'm doing OK, considering having to book yesterdays loss.  I should be done for this years trading with less than 2 weeks to go in 2012.  We are at the mercy of Washington even more so than usual until a tax deal is settled.  I do think some kind of agreement will be reached before the end of the year.  The market reaction will be key.  We will all have to be ready to trade off of that news when it happens.  Gold continues to languish as it is holding at the 200 day moving average.  A break of that level could take us down to $1620 in a hurry.  Hasn't happened yet.  We'll keep our eyes and ears open for the next sound bite out of Washington.

The rally continues as the Dow gained 115 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The up move has legs.  Overbought and staying there.  The summation index is now moving higher.  Whatever negative chart patterns we had last week have been negated.  The transports have broken out above some longer term resistance and that bodes well for the near future.  Closer to a tax deal in Washington has been the excuse for the move up.  You can't fight price action one way or the other.  GE fell 1/4 on heavy volume, bucking the trend.  There was some specific news on GE today that was considered bearish.  GE finished well off of its lows though.  Gold got clobbered today as it fell over $25 on the futures and broke the support level of $1680.  The US dollar was lower as well.  This relationship between the dollar and gold has been going on for a while now.  They are moving lower together and that is the inverse of what is usually suspected.  It isn't bullish for gold.  The XAU held up rather well considering.  It dropped 2 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses again on average volume.  I dumped the January ABX calls that I had for an 80% loss.  This trade was never in the black and it was one of the bigger losers of the year.  I added to it on lower prices and that is usually always a recipe for disaster.  This trade will also increase my trading loss for the year.  I'll tally the final numbers there before the end of the year.  Gold continues to be dead money here.  Even worse it is losing value.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the loss.  The stock indices are in rally mode.  It is expiration week and the usual positive bias is evident.  Throw in some good news out of Washington and we are heading higher.  Gold had a horrible day and we are at the 50 day moving average.  The precious metal will need to stop its decline here or things could get ugly.  I still do like the gold shares.  They are oversold on a short and medium term basis.  However my biggest losses in the past year have been there so I will probably be steering clear of them for a while.  Money is leaving both gold and the US dollar lately.  The flight to safety play is off for now.  I probably won't be making any more trades this year.  There are only 3 days left on the December option cycle and next week is a holiday week.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.  

A positive start to option expiration week as the Dow gained 100 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  This should send the summation index higher.  No technical reason for the rally.  The tax problem in Washington looks like it is almost being solved.  Of course that could change tomorrow but some kind of deal will be reached.  We will see if todays action has some legs.  GE was up 1/3.  Short term overbought here.  Gold and the US dollar both didn't do much today.  The XAU was up 1/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume.  Unless we get some type of rally in ABX, I will have to dump the January calls that I own at a loss.  That is the most likely outcome.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices continue higher and are getting short term overbought again.  We have a holiday week next week.  All of the major trading for the year will be done in the next 4 days.  Perhaps we will run things up into the expiration but that is just a guess.  Gold at around $1700 remains dead money and I don't see a catalyst in the near future.  We'll keep an eye on the action overseas and go from there.

Continuing lower as the Dow fell 35 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is flattening out here.  The weekly S&P 500 candlestick chart now has a potential evening star as well.  So the rally from mid-November could be in jeopardy.  The daily technicals on the stock indices have rolled over.  I'm sticking with a best case scenario of sideways for the market at this juncture.  We do have option expiration week coming up and that usually has a positive bias.  But until we get some clarity from Washington on the tax picture, whatever gains we do see from here will be muted.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was average.  No trades here for now.  Gold had a lackluster session even though the US dollar was lower once again.  The precious metal futures finished the day basically unchanged.  When gold cannot rally despite dollar weakness, it isn't a good sign for the bulls.  I certainly don't know why gold just can't catch a bid here with a bullish dollar backdrop.  The XAU was up a point today.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  My ABX January calls continue to languish in a losing position.  If I don't see some upwards movement in ABX next week, I'm going to have to dump them for another loss.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The over the counter stocks have been weaker in the past couple of days and that usually isn't a good sign moving forward.  We're still at the mercy of headline risk out of Washington.  The question is once we're done with that, then what?  We'll follow the technicals and let that guide us.  Gold continues to disappoint and it looks like there is no rally forthcoming.  It has all the signs at the moment of dead money.  When whatever you're trading can't rally on good news and bullish developments, then that trade is in trouble.  Of course things can turn on a dime sometimes but that is the exception to the rule.  I'll need to cut this ABX call trade loose next week most likely.  It's a Friday afternoon in December and time for a rest.

We lost some ground today as the Dow fell 75 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The overbought condition of the stock indices needs to be worked off and this is the beginning.  Whether or not it turns into a full on rout has yet to be determined.  I don't think that it will but what do I know?  The daily candlestick chart on the S&P 500 now looks bearish with the pattern of a white candle, followed by an evening star and a black candle.  So I think that near term we will probably be in a down to sideways pattern.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Still above the 50 day moving average here.  Gold fell $20 today on the futures as there was no follow through to the Feds action yesterday.  That isn't bullish.  The US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU reversed yesterdays positive action and was down 4 1/8.  ABX off 3/4, GG and NEM fell 1 1/4.  Volume was light to average.  My ABX January calls remain mired in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still plenty of talk out of Washington and no action.  We remain hostage to that situation but eventually it will clear.  Headline risk is still in place.  6 days to go in the December option cycle.  Gold continues to simply be dead money.  I thought after yesterday that perhaps we would get a multi-day rally but it was not to be.  I'm going to have to consider when to take the loss there unless there is a dramatic turn of events to the upside in gold.  We'll see what tomorrow brings to end up the week.   

A one day reversal to the downside for the Dow as we opened higher and closed lower on the Fed announcement.  The Dow lost 3 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The stock indices actually rallied after the Fed but then gave back all of the gains on the day.  The daily candlestick chart for the Dow now looks like an evening star, implying lower prices ahead.  That would not be out of the question since we are still very overbought both short and medium term now on the stock indexes.  I don't think it would be the beginning of a major decline but some backing and filling perhaps.  I could be wrong.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  We just got above the 50 day moving average here on the daily chart.  Gold managed to gain $8 on the futures but sold off a bit in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was lower again.  I would have expected gold to rally today off of the Fed but we didn't see much.  Gold also hasn't rallied with the weaker US dollar lately either.  These are not bullish signs for gold.  I do not know the cause.  The XAU managed a nice gain of 4 1/4 today though.  ABX and GG both gained over a buck, while NEM rose just 1/4.  Volume was average.  Perhaps this is the beginning of a rally in the gold shares for a change.  Or not.  We'll have to see how the week closes out.  My January ABX calls gained some ground but that trade is still a loser for me.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we got the Fed out of the way and now we move on to what's next for the stock market.  We still have to deal with the tax issue from Washington, most likely before the end of the year.  I would be looking for near term weakness for the stock indices and then we'll see where we go from there.  We'll see how the foreign markets react to what Big Ben had to say today.   

Overbought yet continuing higher as the Dow gained 78 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  We'll get the Fed tomorrow and we'll see what happens with that.  Obviously the trend remains up.  We just got through the 50 day moving average on the major stock indices.  That's a positive moving forward.  Perhaps we are beginning the Santa Claus rally.  Of course, that could all change tomorrow.  GE was up 1/8 on good volume.  No trades there for now.  Gold was lower by about 5 bucks on the futures despite a weaker US dollar.  Gold and the dollar have not had their usual relationship lately and that is troublesome going forward.  The XAU lost 1/2 today.  ABX, GG and NEM were mixed with fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  Gold will probably move off of the Fed announcement tomorrow.  That should give us the near term direction for the precious metal.  We'll have to see how the gold shares react.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The stock indexes continue higher as the rally lives on.  Overbought, staying there and that is a condition that lasts in bull moves.  Gold seems to be dead money at the moment.  Unless we see some kind of move following the Fed, that could be the case for a while.  If gold can't rally on a weaker US dollar then something is wrong somewhere.  My January ABX calls remain losers.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.    

Still a meandering market as the Dow gained 14 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  Waiting for some kind of catalyst one way or the other.  The Fed meets this week and maybe they can get things going.  However the market seems to be on hold until Washington figures out the tax situation.  This could go on until the end of the month.  Technically the stock indices are short term overbought.  The summation index does continue higher.  GE lost a few cents on the trading day and the volume was very light.  Getting to the 50 day moving average here.  Gold was up $8 on the futures as the US dollar was weaker today.  The XAU rose a couple points.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume.  Perhaps we'll see something out of the Fed to get gold moving to the upside.  The technicals for the gold shares are short term oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not the most dynamic trading environment with just less than 2 weeks to go in the December option cycle.  However the rally that started in mid-November remains intact.  Gold is perhaps putting in a short term double bottom here but we will need to see the volume pick up to the upside for this to be true.  I'm still holding my January ABX calls at a loss.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas action tonight and go from there.

The employment report was better than expected and the Dow rose 81 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  It was a mixed market once again as the NASDAQ finished the session lower.  The Dow has been leading things here and that usually isn't a bullish sign.  We started the morning off higher and then just drifted for the rest of the day.  I really don't see any conviction to this rise in prices recently.  But you can't argue with price and we are moving higher.  The summation index remains positive as well.  GE was up a nickel on very light volume.  Still below the 50 day moving average here.  Gold was up 3 bucks on the futures and the US dollar was higher today as well.  The XAU was up 1 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume.  I'm still holding the January ABX calls at a loss for now.  However I've been waiting for some type of rally in the gold shares and it hasn't happened.  Oversold on the gold shares and they are simply moving sideways or lower.  I will have to see some type of positive action next week or I will take the loss.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The employment report came and went.  It wasn't really a market mover.  The bigger cap stocks are in the lead here and more often than not that precedes a decline in the overall stock indexes.  Not always but the odds lean that way from my experience.  So I would be careful on the long side here.  Gold isn't really doing anything and that isn't helping my case with the January ABX calls.  6 weeks left in that trade but it isn't looking like it will be a winner.  There's really only a couple of weeks left of regular trading before the holidays take effect.  It looks like I am going to have to dump that trade as the final loser of the year.  The weekend is here and it's time for a break.     

Drifting higher before the employment report as the Dow gained 39 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  We closed almost at the high for the day and that is sometimes bullish going forward.  The summation index continues higher as well.  We'll see what happens tomorrow but the market has the feel of wanting to move higher.  GE was up 1/8 on lighter volume.  Still below the 50 day moving average here but the chart is looking constructive right now.  Of course that could all change tomorrow.  Gold was up around $8 on the futures despite a good gain in the US dollar.  This relationship hasn't been correlating as usual lately.  The XAU was up 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM were little changed either way on light volume.  We'll see if we get some kind of move in gold tomorrow off of the employment report.  But like I have mentioned earlier, gold at the moment could just be dead money.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll see what the reaction is to the employment numbers and go from there.  Still overbought short term on the stock indexes but that condition could last for a while if we are in rally mode.  Tomorrow will go a long way in determining that.  My January ABX calls are way in the red and a decision on dumping them could come tomorrow.  Looks like just another loser at this point.  On to tomorrow. 

A mixed bag today as the Dow gained 82 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The overall market did not fare as well.  The S&P 500 only gained 2 points and the NASDAQ was negative.  Still waiting on Fridays jobs numbers.  The summation index continues higher but the S&P 500 is stalling at the 50 day moving average.  We should get a clear direction of things are Friday.  Hopefully at least.  GE rallied today, up 1/3 on average volume.  I still have no trading ideas here.  Gold finished the day just about flat on the futures as the US dollar had a bit of a rise.  The XAU got clobbered, down 6 1/2.  Most of this was due to FCX.  But the gold shares reversed as well.  ABX off 3/4, GG and NEM down 1 1/8.  Volume was average.  No love for the gold shares here and it looks like I will have to abandon the January ABX call trade.  It is an over 50% loser at the moment.  Unless there is a reversal on the gold shares after the employment report, I'll probably exit this trade.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  The over the counter market was weak and that is not a positive going forward.  The short term technicals remain in the overbought zone for the stock indices.  The gold shares look as though they are breaking down after todays price action.  That will not help any gold share call trades and it looks like I'll have to add another loser to the 2012 trading ledger.  I'll give this trade until Friday but I'll need to see some type of reversal to stick around.  We'll keep an eye on what happens overseas tonight and go from there.

Another day of going nowhere as the Dow lost 14 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  Not much else to say about today as we wait for the employment report on Friday.  It is curious that the US dollar has been heading lower here and we cannot get some type of stock market rally.  The summation index continues higher though.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was average.  No trades there for now.  Gold was lower again today despite the weaker US dollar.  This is not the usual relationship.  The precious metal futures were off $25.  The XAU however was actually up 1/8.  ABX and GG showed fractional gains, while NEM had a fractional loss.  Volume was average for the gold shares.  Perhaps we are at the beginning of the gold shares starting to outperform the metal itself.  But one day doesn't make a trend and it is probably just wishful thinking on my part.  I still own the January ABX calls at a loss.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not exactly sure where the stock indices head from here but the technicals still remain overbought short term.  We are probably being held hostage by the waiting game for Friday.  We are also at the mercy of the headline risk out of Washington.  But that could move things either way.  So we stay tuned and keep a close watch on things.  Gold hasn't been acting well with the weaker US dollar and that is a problem going forward.  We will need to see gold hold the $1680 level or things will most likely head south rather quickly.  Hasn't happened yet.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A weak beginning to December as the Dow fell 60 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We are due for some downside to work off the overbought condition of the stock indices.  The question is if it turns into a retest of the November lows.  The summation index continues to the upside and that is a positive.  All eyes will be on the employment numbers Friday but that may not be as reliable as usual due to the big east coast storm last month.  GE was off 1/3 on light volume.  If GE is a precursor for the overall market as it usually is, then we will be heading lower this week.  If todays action is any indication.  Gold was up 7 bucks, which wasn't much considering the drop in the US dollar.  The XAU followed the overall market lower, down 3 1/3.  ABX off 3/4, GG fell 1 1/4 and NEM dropped 1 3/8.  Volume was relatively better in the gold shares and that is a negative.  When the US dollar is lower and the gold shares can't rally off of that, then we are most likely heading lower.  My January ABX calls are still in the red and losing more money.  Perhaps it is time to say goodbye to this trade but I will give it until the end of the week.  The gold shares would have to turn around soon to keep this trade viable.  Because at this point they look like dead money.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've started the week lower for the stock indexes.  No beginning of the month money flows today.  Could be an interesting week.  Gold isn't looking so good after todays non action.  Could be that I will have to book the loss in the January ABX call trade and move on.  We'll see.  It hasn't been a good trading year for me and this trade would simply add to that fact.  We'll keep an eye on what happens overnight and take it from there.

Another choppy session as we were negative for most of the day.  The Dow managed a gain of 3 points on better than average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We basically ended the month in a holding pattern.  The summation index continues higher but we remain overbought in the stock indices.  We've had an OK rise since the lows of November but I don't see any big moves one way or the other coming up.  But what do I know?  The market as always will go where it wants.  I think we need to see some kind of decline before we can move higher.  GE was flat on the day with average volume.  The short term up trend line remains intact here.  Gold fell again today, off $16 on the futures.  The US dollar finished trading unchanged.  The XAU dropped 1 2/3.  ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM was flat on the day.  Volume was light.  My January ABX calls are still in the red.  I'll need to see some positive price movement from ABX in the beginning of December or this will be another loser.  Oversold on a weekly basis for ABX.  The daily technicals are about mid range.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are on to December.  The so called fiscal cliff is all over the media but it is just talk.  We need to listen to the markets.  Overbought right now but we could stay that way if this rally is for real.  The jury is still out on that.  We should see some positive beginning of the month money flows for stocks.  Gold had a negative week and we will need to see it turn around next week to negate the bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly candlestick chart.  That is something to keep an eye on.  Plenty of economic data out next week topped off by the Friday employment report.  I'll be going over the charts this weekend as usual.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A choppy session today as the Dow finished the day with a gain of 36 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Overbought both short and medium term on some of the technicals for the stock indices.  The over the counter stocks are outperforming at the moment and that usually means higher prices going forward.  However we need to work off some of the overbought condition before going higher in my opinion.  I do not think that this will be a straight line up, it rarely is.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was light.  No trades in GE for now.  The gold futures rose $10 today as the US dollar was slightly weaker.  The XAU was up 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM moved fractionally one way or the other on very light volume.  Not much action in the gold shares today as we are just trying to close out the month here.  My January ABX calls remain in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  November will close out with the trading tomorrow.  A lot of price movement during the month but not much progress either way for the stock indexes.  We'll have to wait and see what happens in December.  Gold is going to end the month with very little progress as well.  The gold shares however, were well off of their best levels for the month.  This relationship needs to change if the January ABX call trade is going to turn a profit.       

It was a one day reversal to the upside today as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The Dow gained 107 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  I was expecting a bit more weakness than what we have seen.  But I could be wrong and often am.  We should move off of the GDP report tomorrow.  End of the month coming on Friday.  The technicals for the stock indices are heading to overbought.  GE was up 1/4 on light volume.  We got the same type of intra day reversal here as well.  We'll see if we get any follow through tomorrow.  Gold took a hit today.  The futures were off over $25.  The US dollar closed a bit lower after being higher early on.  The XAU followed the overall stock market higher by 1 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on average volume.  One day doesn't make a trend but it was nice to see from the bullish angle that the gold shares outperformed the precious metal for a change.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A bullish reversal for the stock indexes today.  We'll see if it can carry over for tomorrow.  I don't think that we have seen the end of the near term weakness yet though.  We'll see.  Not a good day for gold but I am still in the bullish camp here going forward.  Perhaps it will turn around tomorrow.  That's a guess as usual.  However the technicals for gold have turned down on the daily chart.  We'll keep an eye on what happens overnight and wait for the GDP revision tomorrow morning. 

Heading lower today and that isn't unexpected as the Dow fell 89 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We are working off the short term overbought condition of the stock indexes.  I would guess that the recently made lows would hold any decline but that is just a guess.  The summation index is still moving in a positive direction.  I feel as though we are simply taking a rest here but I do not expect any huge rally anytime soon either.  GE was off almost a 1/4 on lighter volume.  Nothing new to report here.  Gold fell $7 on the futures as the US dollar posted gains today.  The XAU dropped 3 3/4.  ABX off 3/4, GG fell 1 7/8 and NEM shed 1/3.  Volume was average for the gold shares.  The ABX January calls that I own continue to lose value.  Plenty of time for this trade to work out and I will hold these options at least into December.  However I would like to see the price direction turn around at some point this week.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A couple of down days to start the week and I would not be surprised if the weakness continued just a bit more.  We could be moving into a sideways trading range but only time will tell on that.  Gold fell a bit today but we are still above the rising trend line that began at the beginning of the month.  I would prefer to see the gold stocks taking the lead here but it hasn't happened yet.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We are expecting some weakness near term and we got some today as the Dow fell 42 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  It was a mixed bag though because the NASDAQ actually closed higher on the day.  We were off over 100 points on the Dow during the session.  The summation index is now headed higher.  I still think we will get some more downside at some point this week.  After that, who knows?  Not a lot of data out this week but we will get the 1st revision to the 3rd quarter GDP report.  GE was flat on the day but the volume was pretty good.  We held the 200 day moving average here and that's a positive.  Gold didn't do much today and neither did the US dollar.  The precious metal futures lost a couple of bucks.  The XAU sold off early but only lost 1/3 on the day.  ABX, GG and NEM all lost around 1/3 on light volume.  The gold shares are following the overall market at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'd expect the stock indices to take a rest this week but I could be wrong.  The rally last week was on light volume and that is not a positive going forward.  We do have the end of the month coming up on Friday.  Gold is probably due for some backing and filling as well.  I would like to see the gold shares take the lead here but it hasn't happened yet.  My January ABX calls are still in the red.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets overnight and take it from there.   

It was a very interesting half session today as the Dow roared ahead by 172 points.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive and the volume was extremely light.  Not your typical holiday half session plodding along.  It was however, a very light volume levitation all week.  Not to be trusted in my opinion.  I would not be surprised by some type of pull back early next week.  I would expect it.  GE was up 1/3 and the volume wasn't too bad.  Perhaps that bodes well for the overall market here.  That's a guess as usual.  No trades in GE for now.  Gold had a decent day as well on a weaker US dollar.  Perhaps there will be some good news out of Europe soon.  That could be what the dollar is signaling.  At any rate, the precious metal futures were up over $20.  The gold shares lagged again though as the XAU only gained 3 points.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on very light volume.  My January ABX calls are still in the red but by not as much.  I'll be holding on to this position at least into next month barring a catastrophe.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A nice upside week for the stock indices but the volume was anemic.  It's hard to trust light volume rallies.  But who knows?  Maybe this is the beginning of something sustained for the bulls.  I think the jury is still out though.  I'm not looking for a good year for the overall stock market next year but I'm wrong as much or more than I'm right lately.  Gold has started to move higher, perhaps back to the resistance at $1800.  I need to see the gold shares take the lead here though, for the ABX trade to work out.  Plenty of time for that trade but there is the possibility that we'll see plenty of end of the year tax loss selling there.  Just a guess as usual.  It's a holiday weekend as time to put the markets aside for a while.  We'll get back to it Monday morning. 

A drift higher as the Dow gained 48 points on holiday light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index should now be moving higher.  Not much to make of todays action.  You have to simply sit tight and wait for next week for the markets direction.  We are getting short term overbought on some technical indicators but not all.  GE was flat and the volume was light.  It is again the same wait around type of action.  We'll see more of the same on Friday.  Gold was up about $5 on the futures as the US dollar didn't do much today.  The XAU gained 2 1/3.  ABX, GG and NEM were all up around 1/2 and the volume was light.  The gold shares did better than the metal today but you can't read much into that during a week like this.  My ABX January calls are still in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It is looking like a positive week for the stock indices but the volume is light.  So I would expect some negative action perhaps sometime early next week.  I'm not saying that we are going to fall apart or anything like that but we are not going to go up in a straight line.  Gold has held up OK this week but I'd like to see another run at $1800 soon.  I'll be holding on to the ABX January calls into December and then we'll see where things go from there.  Enjoy the holiday. 

A day to digest yesterdays gains as the Dow lost 7 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The market sold off during the session when big Ben Bernanke spoke.  Hard to get a good grip on what is going on this week since it is a holiday week and lightly traded.  You really just have to hang around until all the players return next week.  GE was flat on the day with the same light volume.  Gold dropped a bit, off $10 on the futures despite a flat US dollar.  The XAU fell 1 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM were little changed or off just a touch.  Volume was light.  My January ABX calls are still in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just 2 trading days left in the week and we'll close early for Fridays trade.  It is a time to simply sit tight.  The time premium will decay for the options.  I don't expect a lot of movement in the stock indices until next week barring some type of unexpected event.  It is a time to relax, go over the charts and your trading ideas.  Preparation for next week would be the prudent course of action for now.

Today we saw the bounce that we were waiting for as the Dow climbed 207 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 8 to 1 positive.  The reasons could be anywhere from the "fiscal cliff" positive thoughts or the European mess suddenly sorting itself out.  Doesn't matter.  We were technically in an area that should of seen a bounce earlier than this, so it was bound to show up sooner or later.  Where we go from here is what matters.  Today had everything but the volume but it is a holiday week.  We'll see if we can build on this for the rest of this week.  GE had a gap to the upside and gained 1/2 on the day.  Volume was average.  The 200 day moving average held for GE, unlike the major averages.  Does that mean anything?  Perhaps.  Maybe GE will show better relative strength moving forward.  Gold had a decent day as the US dollar was weaker for a change.  The precious metal futures rose almost $20.  The XAU gained 4 7/8.  ABX up 1/2, GG added 1 1/8 and NEM higher by 2/3.  Volume was light.  I would have liked to see ABX move better with such a good day in the markets but was not to be.  My ABX January calls are still in the red.  I'm willing to give this trade some time to work as we are still oversold here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  One day doesn't make a rally so we will have to see how the rest of the shortened week plays out.  The volume was light and we don't trust light volume rallies.  So we'll see.  Gold continues to outperform the gold shares and that isn't a positive going forward.  I will say though that if ABX can hold up here in the next couple of weeks, there is a chance that this trade will work itself out.  Hasn't happened yet.  We'll see what goes on overnight and take it from there. 

The market is trying to hold in here but the rally attempt has been weak so far.  The Dow rose 45 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  Those numbers will move the McClellan oscillator from the deeply oversold condition but the accompanying price movement was tepid.  We have a holiday week coming up and there is really no reason to buy stocks.  I would like to see more of a decent snap back before I believe the decline is over.  Hasn't happened yet.  The technicals remain oversold.  GE didn't do much again on average volume.  Hovering around the 200 day moving average here.  Gold didn't do much today but the US dollar closed up for the day after being much higher during the session.  The XAU gained 1 1/3.  ABX and NEM had fractional gains, while GG had a fractional loss.  Volume was good for the gold shares.  My ABX January calls are underwater.  It looks as though I have bought these calls too early.  Plenty of time for this trade to work but it already has the feel of a loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It appears that the stock indices went lower into the expiration today before bouncing back a little.  That was a possible scenario discussed earlier.  Where we go from here it what matters now.  The December options have an extra week on them.  We're still oversold on the technicals and still haven't seen a good rebound.  That is a problem going forward.  Gold has held up pretty good here but the gold shares have gotten pummeled.  This relationship has to change if the ABX call trade is going to work for me.  The fact that we have a lot of recent Mideast turmoil and the price of gold hasn't rallied is troublesome for the bullish cause.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend and the charts must be checked as well.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

The general malaise continues as the Dow fell 28 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  Very oversold on all levels here and I would expect a snap back tomorrow or Monday.  I doubt it will be anything sustainable but at least we'll take a rest from the drop.  If that doesn't happen we may actually simply collapse but I do not think that will occur.  However we have to be aware that it could.  The market as always goes where it wants.  The McClellan oscillator is deeply oversold and it doesn't stay that way for long.  So we'll look for some type of rally attempt and go from there.  GE was up a nickel as it tries to hold on at it's 200 day moving average.  Volume was good.  No trades here for now.  Gold fell today as the futures lost $16.  The US dollar continues to meander, with not much price action.  The XAU dropped another 4 1/8.  ABX fell 2/3, GG off 1 1/3 and NEM lost 1/4.  Volume was good on the gold shares.  I bought some more of the January ABX calls and averaged down my original cost.  This is something that usually doesn't work.  However I am a believer that this trade will work out.  I could be wrong and have been wrong a lot this year.  The charts for ABX look ugly to the downside.  It very well could be the falling knife syndrome.  But when nobody else wants something it is sometimes the right time to buy.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Interesting times in the marketplace right now.  The stock indices have broken down.  There can be no denying that.  We are due for a bounce and it should come soon.  I would not be a buyer of stocks for the longer term until sometime next year.  Gold has held up rather well so far during this decline but the gold shares have not.  However there is a lot of tension in the Middle East at the moment and gold hasn't rallied.  That could be a problem for the gold bulls going forward.  We'll see.  We'll close out the week with option expiration tomorrow.   

Oversold and staying there is never a good combination for the bulls.  The Dow is now in the fall apart mode as we lost 185 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 9 to 1 negative.  No positive expiration week bias this month.  The summation index continues lower.  The McClellan oscillator has broken down from the -150 level.  We will now probably see a washout decline and then a snap back rally.  Within the next 3 days or so, if I had to guess.  The S&P 500 couldn't hold the 200 day moving average and followed the over the counter stocks through that level.  The game has changed and did so about a month ago.  GE fell 2/3 on heavy volume.  We've reached the 200 day moving average here.  Probably won't hold here as well.  It obviously isn't a time to own stocks and probably won't be for a while.  Gold was up $5 on the futures and fell back a few bucks in the aftermarket.  The US dollar again had very little change on the day.  The XAU followed the overall market lower and dropped 8 1/4 points.  ABX, GG and NEM all lost over a dollar and change on good volume.  The gold shares continue to under perform gold itself.  My open order for the January ABX calls was filled.  It is already a loser by about 20%.  Plenty of time for this trade to work itself out.  However if the overall liquidation mode continues, the gold shares will continue to fall as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  How much lower can we go here?  Probably lower than most think at the moment.  We may just run down into the expiration on Friday.  Rallies will most likely be sold into from now on.  Any compelling reasons to own stocks here?  The psychology of the market has changed.  Gold still is holding up rather well.  The Gold/XAU ratio is clearly in the buy zone for the gold stocks.  But we saw this before earlier this year and it did not work.  I was looking at IAG for a possible candidate for the January calls as well.  It missed on earnings last night and was clobbered today, off 20% in just one session.  Perhaps my idea on the gold shares is off the mark here as well.  We'll see what happens overnight and go from there.

We opened lower, climbed out of that hole to be positive most of the day, only to roll back down in the final hour.  The Dow fell 59 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  Oversold, staying there and that is not a good sign.  The summation index continues lower.  We closed below the important line in the sand level of 1380 on the S&P 500.  So I would have to say that we need to watch out here for a big decline.  Perhaps things can turn around tomorrow but it doesn't feel like it.  Caution would be the word that best describes the current stock market environment.  GE lost almost 1/4 on average volume.  Here too we are breaking to new lows for the move.  It looks like we are heading to the 200 day moving average at around $20.  The gold futures fell 6 bucks today as the US dollar again didn't do much of anything.  The XAU fell 2 points.  ABX, GG and NEM all fell at least 1/2 or more on light volume.  These issues have the same I'm going lower feel to them as the overall market.  I'm still leaving in my open order for the January ABX calls.  Could be another mistake but I will check it out again tonight.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices tried again to rally today and failed.  That is troublesome.  The smaller stocks have already broken down below their 200 day moving averages and perhaps now the larger caps will follow.  Tomorrow could get interesting.  Gold has held up rather well lately but the gold shares have lagged.  Sometimes when nobody wants something, it's the time to step up to the plate.  The gold shares are oversold technically.  I'm willing to take the chance here but I may be early.  We'll see.  I'll keep an eye on developments overnight and go from there.   

A semi-holiday today as the banks and bond markets were closed for Veterans Day.  The Dow drifted all session and finished the day basically unchanged on very light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  Still trying to hold or bounce from the important 1380 level on the S&P 500.  Where we move from here will be worth watching.  Still oversold on the short term technicals for the stock indexes.  GE fell 1/8 on the same very light volume.  No trades there for now.  The gold futures were flat on the day and off a bit in the aftermarket.  The US dollar didn't do much today either.  The XAU however fell 2 3/8 as it is now under performing the precious metal itself.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on very light volume.  I'm leaving in my open order for the January ABX calls.  Not sure if it will get filled at the price that I'm willing to pay.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Option expiration week and all the players should return tomorrow.  The Dow transports rallied today and perhaps the overall market will follow tomorrow.  Summation index still heading lower though.  It's anybodies guess as to what happens this week.  We'll watch the overseas markets tonight and go from there. 

The market tried to rally today but when it was all said and done the Dow only managed a gain of 4 points.  Volume was average and the advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The McClellan oscillator is trying to hold in at the -150 level, which has been the stopping point in momentum since June.  The stock indices remain oversold on a daily technical basis.  Expiration week is coming up.  It remains to be seen if the usual positive bias will be in effect this time around.  I'd simply be guessing if told you where we are heading next for the S&P 500.  We are right at the 200 day moving average and this is where the battle will be to stop the decline.  It has held so far.  GE was up 1/8 on average volume.  No trade there for now.  Gold gained $5 on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU was off 2 1/2 though.  ABX down 3/8, GG and NEM dropped 3/4.  Volume was light.  I've left in the open order for the ABX January calls for now.  I may switch to IAG.  The technicals for gold itself are short term overbought now, while the gold share technicals are mid-range.  I'll have to ponder this idea once again over the weekend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got the US election out of the way but the market not only didn't care, it sold off.  Probably because the outcome only guarantees more of the same political infighting that has gone on since the beginning of politics.  The stock indexes are technically oversold and staying there.  That is not bullish.  Perhaps expiration week can start to turn things around but I don't know.  Gold caught a bid this week and that has stopped the month long decline.  Whether or not this is the beginning of another attempt to the $1800 level remains to be seen.  The gold shares lagged this week.  With only 5 days to go in the November option cycle, I won't be trying any trades on that short of a duration.  The December options have an extra weeks time on them but one of the week there is a holiday week.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to try and make some sense of things.  Friday afternoon is here and it is time to start to enjoy the weekend. 

What a time to take a couple of days off, which I rarely do but was already committed to.  A brief recap of the 2 days I missed posting the blog.  Tuesday saw a 133 point rally in the Dow as the election uncertainty was going to finally pass.  The gold futures rallied as well, over $30.  The XAU didn't rally as much though.  Wednesday saw a nasty sell-off for stocks as the Dow fell 312 points.  Gold was flat on the day and the XAU rallied slightly again.  Which brings us to today.  The Dow followed through to the downside and that isn't good sign if you're bullish.  The Dow dropped another 121 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The S&P 500 is at its 200 day moving average.  I would expect some attempt to stabilize here but who knows?  We are in a liquidation mode for whatever reason.  We will have to see how long this lasts.  The McClellan oscillator still has more room to the downside before we get to the snap back stage.  So it is time to keep an eye on things for sure.  GE dropped 1/4 on average volume and broke to new recent lows.  The 50 week moving average comes in at just below $20.  Not trades here for now.  The gold futures had another good day in the flight to safety.  They rose $12 as the dollar had slight gains as well.  The XAU only moved up 1 1/4.  ABX and GG up 1/4, while NEM was flat.  Volume was average here.  Before I took off for a couple of days, I did place an order for some ABX January calls.  It wasn't filled.  The major gold shares are not moving as much here as I would expect.  Perhaps the recent earnings reports have kept traders away.  I may move over to a second tier gold producer such as IAG.  At least the percentage moves here lately have been better.  I have left the ABX January call trade open though, to see if it will get filled.  I'm still considering if this is a viable idea considering we've had a decent move in gold for the past few days and the major gold shares haven't participated.  Mentally I'm pretty tired, haven't slept well for a couple of days.  The stock indices have the look and feel as if they are simply breaking down here.  I'm not sure how long this will last but I don't think that it is done just yet.  7 days to go in the November option cycle so perhaps we will drop into that.  That's a guess as usual.  Gold has moved up this week but the gold shares haven't followed as much as they should.  No hurry to trade there either I suppose.  We'll keep and eye on how the foreign markets react to todays drop and go from there.

A bit higher on Monday as the Dow gained 19 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  It's a waiting game on the election at this point.  Perhaps we'll see a rally when that unknown has passed.  The technicals are still more oversold than overbought on the stock indices.  At this juncture, things could go either way.  If I had any real conviction, I'd try something here but I don't.  GE was up 1/8 after opening lower.  Volume was light.  The technicals appear to be turning up here.  Gold bounced back a little, up $8 on the futures.  The US dollar was higher today as well.  The XAU fell over a point though.  No love for the gold shares.  ABX off 1/4, GG up 1/4 and NEM shed 1/3.  Volume looks to be about average for the gold shares.  I'm still considering the gold share calls for January.  It may take a while to build a base though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It is simply a time of wait and see for the stock indexes here.  Wednesday will be an interesting session.  Regardless of who wins the election the markets will move on.  Nobody wants the gold shares here.  That should tell us something.  It's usually the time to buy unless we simply continue the recent free fall.  Obviously I have no conviction one way or the other there.  That said, I'll be trying the gold share calls again at some point.  I'll be away from my desk for the next few days due to a previous commitment.  I may or may not be able to post remotely.  Tomorrow should be slow again and then we will key off of the markets reaction to the election results.  I'm expecting Obama to win and we'll see how much of that is factored into prices already.  However I could be wrong and have been a lot this year.

Friday was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index fell 139 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index started heading lower again.  We will really need to see things turn around rather quickly or we could be heading towards new recent lows for the stock indices.  The technicals remain oversold and that will be a problem if we don't start a rally here.  We got a bounce but there was no follow through.  The employment report was a bit better than expected but it didn't mean much to stocks.  Next week should be very interesting.  GE was flat after opening higher and the volume was a little better than average.  No trades here for now.  Gold got pounded lower on a stronger US dollar.  The precious metal futures lost $40, which was the biggest one day loss in quite a while.  The XAU fell 8 1/8.  ABX off 1 1/3, GG dropped 2 1/4 and NEM led the way down by 4 1/2.  Volume was heavy in the gold shares as traders headed for the exits in a hurry.  I think the prevailing wisdom here is that the US dollar is starting a longer term rally here and the commodity complex is going to head lower.  That's my guess as to what occurred on Friday.  Whether or not that is true only time will tell.  Of course I'm still reeling from the ABX November call trade but I'm  willing to take a look at the gold share calls again for January.  However the drop at the moment is so steep that I will have to reassess this idea.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indexes need to hold on here or it could get ugly.  Still oversold and we should have had more upside than the bounce on Thursday.  Perhaps we will get some rally this week but the market will go where it wants.  Gold is in a down trend.  There is a bit of support where we are right now but much more at $1625.  The charts of the gold shares look ugly to the downside.  I'll be away from my desk starting on Tuesday.  I may or may not be able to provide the daily market updates until Thursday or Friday.  I might be able to post remotely but we'll see.  Enjoy the rest of the weekend.  

The expected upside showed up today as the Dow gained 136 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  Perhaps the market knows something about tomorrows employment report.  Or not.  Technically we needed a bounce and we got it.  We'll have to wait and see if it is the start of something more.  GE gained 1/4 on average volume.  Perhaps we are trying to put in a base here as well.  No trades there for now.  Gold lost a few bucks as the dollar didn't do much again today.  The XAU fell 1 1/8.  ABX was the story of the day as it got clobbered on a poor earnings report.  ABX down 3 7/8, GG up 1/8 and NEM fell 1 1/3.  Volume was extremely heavy on ABX, about average for the others.  My ABX November calls were a complete 100% loss.  ABX gapped down at the open and blew past my stop loss order.  I never seem to do well with the short term trades and this was no exception.  I wasn't expecting anything like this but the market as usual will go where it wants.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We will have to see if we get any follow through to todays rally in the overall market tomorrow.  If so, we could be at the beginning of some type of rally here.  If not, it will be more of the same sideways activity pre-election.  So we'll see.  Gold seems to be in the same stand by mode.  I'm not sure if I'll try the gold share calls again.  I'll have to try and regroup from todays debacle.  I might go with the GDX for the next gold trade as the single stock risk would be less.  Trading a basket of the gold shares vs. a single company in theory has less risk.  We'll see.  Perhaps I simply expected ABX to have the same upside movement that GG had on its earnings release.  We'll get the employment number tomorrow and go from there.

We tried to rally but fell off as the Dow dropped 10 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  October trading has ended and we're on to November.  We've got the employment report on Friday and then the US election on Tuesday.  Technically the stock indices are still oversold and I believe that regardless of the numbers, near term we will move higher.  The S&P 500 has gone sideways for 4 days in a row.  Although the summation index is still heading lower, I expect an upside pop in the major averages within the next 2 days.  I could be wrong but I don't think so.  GE was off a nickel on about average volume.  Short term oversold here as well.  Gold moved higher to close out the month.  The futures rose $7.  The US dollar didn't do much today but had been lower when the US markets were closed.  The XAU gained 5 1/2 as it continues to outperform than precious metal.  ABX up 1 1/3, GG added 1 /2 and NEM rose 1 1/4.  Volume was average for the gold shares.  Higher prices were expected in the gold shares and we got them.  I ended up getting some ABX November calls before tomorrows earnings report.  I'm not a big fan of chasing moves but I think that ABX is going to go higher.  I still like the January calls as well if there is some pullback down the road.  Of course I could be mistaken and the stock sells off on the earnings report.  I have a stop loss order in place.  Regardless, it looks like last week was the time to purchase the January calls for ABX.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Oversold on the stock indexes and staying there.  That is usually a recipe for disaster but we've only been moving sideways.  Perhaps another day of wait and see before the numbers on Friday.  It's anybodies guess.  Gold moved up today but the gold shares have really been acting well lately.  We'll see if that trend continues.  I'm not sure how long I will hold on to the November ABX calls.  I have a commitment on Friday halfway through the trading day. That will delay the blog posting until Saturday.  I will also be away from my desk for a couple of days next week due to a prior engagement.  The blog might be late or not posted in the middle of the week.  We'll see how ABX reacts to the earnings and go from there.  

A mini-holiday for those not dealing with the wrath of the storm named Sandy.  Wall Street should get back to business tomorrow.  The S&P 500 futures sold off over 10 points yesterday but we are back to being a bit higher.  I do expect some strength in the stock indices before the employment report on Friday.  Gold hasn't done much in the past 2 days.  The US dollar however did have some weakness today.  The gold shares have made some gains over the past 2 days on the Toronto exchange.  I will try and purchase some ABX calls ahead of the earnings that are out early Thursday however the premiums will probably be inflated.  It most likely would have been easier to attempt this trade under normal market conditions but that isn't the case.  It's hard to say what the conditions will be like tomorrow with the end of the month.  Perhaps we'll see some volatility but it's really anybodies guess.  The foreign markets have generally been slightly higher the past 2 days.  So we'll see what happens tomorrow morning and go from there. 

The stock market tried to sell off today but didn't as the Dow gained a mere 3 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We've moved sideways for 3 days and I think we are going higher.  We're still short term oversold.  My gut feeling is that if we were going to continue lower, we would have already.  When the market is in a decent decline, it doesn't hang around for 3 days.  It falls and we haven't, even though there has been plenty of bad earnings lately.  The GDP report was better than expected but this is a number that will be revised a couple of times.  I'm not saying that we will go to new yearly highs but we should rally in the beginning of next week.  GE lost 1/8 on average volume.  Oversold here as well.  No trades in mind at the moment.  The gold futures as well as the US dollar were flat on the day.  The XAU lost 1 3/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  I've left in the open order for the January ABX calls.  The earnings for ABX are due on November 1st.  I believe that I will need to make the purchase ahead of the earnings if GG was any type of indicator.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  The stock indices have had every reason to fall after Tuesdays drop and they haven't.  That's bullish moving forward.  The summation index is still heading down but that could change with one decent up day.  We should see higher stock prices in the beginning of next week.  The employment report on Friday should be the next major mover.  Gold has been in a downtrend for the month of October.  The gold shares have basically moved sideways in the same time period.  I will be trying to get some ABX calls at a good premium in the beginning of next week.  I would like to go out to January because the weekly chart here shows a potentially bullish head and shoulders pattern.  Potential because it hasn't happened yet and may not.  I may just get the near month for the earnings report but the risk would be much higher.  We'll see.  Plenty to think about over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Got somewhat of a bounce today as the Dow gained 26 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The day started with a nice rise but then the sellers took over for most of the rest of the day.  We're still short term oversold.  We should move off of the GDP report tomorrow.  Which way is anybodies guess.  GE was flat on the day with average volume.  We have at least stopped going down for now.  No trades for GE in mind at the moment.  Gold gained $11 on the futures and the dollar was a bit higher as well.  The story was in the gold shares as the XAU gained 4 7/8 on a strong earnings report from GG.  ABX and NEM were up a buck, GG soared 2 3/4.  The volume was light though, however you cannot argue with the price movement.  I still have the open order in for the January ABX calls.  Earnings are due for both ABX and NEM on November 1st.  I will probably want to own the calls before then if todays market action in GG is any indication of the future.  Or perhaps I'm too late once again.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  The summation index continues lower but there is the possibility that if we rally tomorrow that the decline is over.  That's a guess as usual.  There's still a chance that we could unravel as well.  That is the type of market environment we are in at the moment.  There is no clear picture but we have moved lower lately.  Gold has held the level of $1700 so far and that would be a positive going forward if we can hold up.  I think the gold share calls can still be purchased for ABX.  Perhaps tomorrow if we see some weakness. 

The Dow closed down 25 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The Fed came and went with no real market reaction.  That was anticipated by most of the players.  The stock indices tried to rally today but to no avail.  We are short term oversold so some type of bounce should appear.  But the trend is down and support lines have been violated.  The Dow transportation index was down heavy today.  GDP on Friday and that should be the next market mover.  GE was flat today on average volume.  Oversold here as well.  Gold fell again today, off $7 on the futures.  The US dollar was flat today.  The XAU fell 3 1/8 as near term support appears to have been broken.  ABX down 3/8, GG lost 1 1/2 and NEM fell 1 1/4.  Volume picked up a bit and that isn't positive going forward.  The gold shares look like they're breaking down here on the daily candlestick charts.  ABX has held up better than the rest lately, however that could change at any time.  I still have the open order in for the January calls there but I might adjust it overnight.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No buyers lately for stocks.  I don't feel any sense of impending doom here but the summation index continues lower.  Oversold on the stock indexes and that is a condition that needs to change or things could get dicey.  Oversold and staying there is a recipe for downside surprise.  Gold has gotten to $1700 and it really needs to hold on here.  There is some other support at $1675 but I would not like to see that happen.  The market will go where it wants though.  Commodities in general are falling now.  I'll have to ponder the ABX trade tonight and decide what to do.  We'll see if we can mount some type of rally tomorrow.

There was no upside follow through as the Dow fell 243 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative.  After yesterdays nice comeback, the stock indices just could not hold up.  We are short term oversold here, so a bounce tomorrow would not be out of the question.  The Dow transports actually were higher on the day.  The breadth of the market wasn't so bad either considering the magnitude of the decline.  The summation index continues lower though.  Rising trend lines on many of the stock indices have been broken.  We're heading lower and perhaps sideways is the best we can hope for near term.  GE fell another 3/8 and the volume was good.  This chart has broken down and that doesn't bode well for the overall market.  No trades in mind here.  Gold fell today as well on a stronger US dollar.  The precious metal futures dropped over $15.  The XAU fell 5 2/3.  ABX off 3/8, GG lost 1 1/8 and NEM led the way down, weaker by 1 2/3.  Volume was light.  ABX held up considerably well with todays market sell off.  I still have in an open order for the January calls here but I may have to adjust it to get filled.  The option premiums are staying quite high for the ABX January series, which tells me that this idea may actually work.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The tone of the game here has changed.  We are heading lower on the S&P 500, perhaps to 1400 or 1380 in my view.  Anything below that and we could be in big trouble.  I don't see that happening.  Gold is getting close to the $1700 level and it will be important to hold that in my opinion.  Might get there tomorrow.  We've got the Fed tomorrow but there really isn't much to expect from that this time.  I could be wrong.  We'll see how the overseas markets react to todays decline and go from there.

The Dow made quite a comeback today as we were down over 100 points and came back to finish up 2.  The advance/declines were slightly negative and the volume was light.  We rallied in the last hour and that is a positive going forward.  We'll see if we can follow through to the upside tomorrow.  I'm not completely sold on the idea that the recent decline is over though.  But it could be as we hover at the 50 day moving average on the Dow.  The summation index continues to the downside.  We've got the Fed to deal with this week and the GDP report on Friday.  GE fell 1/3 on heavy volume.  GE cut it's loss for the day more than half as well.  However the GE daily chart looks like it is breaking down.  If GE is a precursor for the overall market, we'll see lower overall stock prices ahead.  Gold gained a couple of bucks on the futures as the US dollar was pretty much flat on the day.  The XAU rose 2 1/4.  The gold shares continue to outperform.  ABX, GG and NEM all were higher by about 1/2 on light volume.  I'm leaving in the open order for the January ABX calls.  The open interest expanded on the strike prices that I observed on Friday and that's bullish.  I would ideally like to purchase some gold share calls this week on weakness.  May not get the chance but it's early in the week still.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It was a nice comeback for the stock indices today.  Follow through seems to me to be more important than usual considering where we are on many indexes.  The over the counter indexes have been weaker and that isn't a good sign for the bulls.  But if the major indices can hold up here, perhaps the decline is actually done.  I'm not exactly sure but my guess would be lower prices this week.  I could be wrong.  Gold is right on it's 50 day moving average.  The chart on the gold shares has been moving sideways for over a month.  I'll be looking for an upside breakout at some point.  Hence, I'd like to own some calls before that happens.  But the markets will do what they please, as always.  We'll see what transpires tomorrow.   

An interesting expiration Friday as the Dow fell 205 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  Earnings disappointments were the norm for today.  The S&P 500 is right back to the 50 day moving average and the technicals have rolled over.  It appears that we are going to head lower.  My call for new yearly highs looks like another bad idea on my part.  I expected some weakness next week but not of this magnitude.  The uptrend line that has been in effect since June has been broken and the next support that I see is at around 1420 and then 1400 if that doesn't hold.  Anything could happen but todays action changes the near term tone of the market.  GE fell on its earnings report.  It was down 3/4 on heavy volume.  On the weekly chart here the uptrend line is at $21.50.  That line has been in effect since late 2011.  It is important that we stay above that level on a weekly closing basis or it could spell trouble for the overall markets.  That's my thoughts there at the moment.  Gold fell $20 on the futures as the US dollar was higher on the day.  However the gold shares did not follow as the XAU only lost 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM were mixed with fractional moves.  The volume here picked up and they closed well off of their lows of the day.  Money sought the gold shares as a safe haven today in my opinion.  I left in the open order for the January ABX calls.  I noticed extremely heavy volume in the January 42 ABX calls today.  If the open interest expands on Monday it would be a positive sign.  The same type of action occurred in the ABX calls prior to the August-September run up.  I'm still a believer in the gold shares moving higher in the medium term future.  I could be wrong and often am.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Today was possibly a game changer for the overall stock indices.  The tech shares are leading the way down.  If the bank shares roll over here as well, we will probably be in a longer term decline.  Hasn't happened yet.  The fact that gold sold off today also makes the possibility of asset liquidation look real.  I'm going to try and purchase some gold share calls next week.  That is the game plan as of right now.  I'll be checking all the charts over the weekend to decide the best course of action.  I'll also be watching the financial media to see the reaction to todays sell off.  If the tone is bullish then we are most likely headed lower.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest. 

A bit lower today as the Dow fell 8 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is heading higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Getting short term overbought on the technicals for the stock indices.  That doesn't mean that we can't go higher though.  The NASDAQ had a big dip thanks to Google.  I'm not sure that means anything going forward.  I still think that the presidential re-election rally is in place.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  The earnings should be a factor tomorrow.  I have no idea what will happen there.  Todays daily chart candlestick was bearish though.  Gold fell about $8 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 5 points and closed practically on its low.  That's bearish going forward.  ABX, GG and NEM all lost a buck or more on what passes for average volume lately.  I dropped the strike price on my open order for the January ABX calls.  I would ideally like to purchase some gold share calls next week.  I believe that we'll see some overall market weakness next week and the gold shares should follow.  I could be wrong.  That is the game plan at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Expiration Friday on tap with a bunch of earnings reports as well.  Perhaps we'll see some volatility.  Otherwise it's a wait and see mode for me at the moment.  I might switch to the December gold share calls but that is something that I'll consider over the weekend.  We'll see what comes out of Europe overnight and go from there.

Just hanging around today as the Dow gained 5 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The summation index is heading higher.  The Obama re-election rally lives on.  Look for new yearly highs in the S&P 500 in the next few days.  The positive expiration week bias remains in effect.  No telling how long this uptrend will last but higher is the path of least resistance for now.  GE was up 1/4 on light volume.  A waiting game on the earnings here.  A good number could propel this issue to new yearly highs as well.  Gold gained $6 on the futures as the US dollar was lower again.  The XAU rose 2 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume.  I'm leaving in the January ABX call open order for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A European summit meeting tomorrow will grab the headlines and could possibly be a market mover.  The market is trending higher regardless.  We could continue to the upside until the US presidential election.  That's a guess as usual.  The gold shares continue to outperform the price of gold itself.  That remains a positive going forward.  We'll  keep an eye on the overseas markets and go from there.     

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 127 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  Getting some OEX calls yesterday was the obvious trade that I failed to do.  Once again an opportunity has been wasted because I simply did not want to take the risk.  No risk, no reward in this game.  The summation index could turn back to the upside with todays numbers.  It appears that the stock indices want to rally into the election, which discounts an Obama victory.  2 solid up days are the beginning of a trend, as there are not any apparent sellers so far this week.  GE was flat on the day and the volume wasn't anything special.  Probably just waiting for the earnings on Friday here.  Gold bounced back as the US dollar was weaker today.  The yellow metal futures were up over $10 today.  The XAU gained 3 3/4.  ABX up a buck, GG added 1/2 and NEM led the way higher by 1 1/4.  Volume was light but the price action was positive.  I've left in the open order for the January ABX calls but we may start to rally in the gold shares as well.  The daily candlestick charts look constructive to the upside with todays action.  Perhaps the November calls are in order here.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, could have slept better.  The positive expiration week bias remains as we have gained over 2oo points in the first couple of days this week.  Not taking advantage of that is painful.  But you have to move on.  It looks like new yearly highs for the stock indexes are coming soon.  The gold shares are outdoing the price of gold once again and that is a positive moving forward.  ABX, GG and NEM should follow the overall market higher unless we see some sort of breakdown in gold but I don't see that happening.  Gold is still attracting capital.  We'll see what happens tomorrow after tonights second presidential debate.  That may or may not influence the price action on Wednesday.

We got a bounce today as the Dow gained 95 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  Some upside was expected and the next question is whether we can sustain it.  The market did rally in the last hour which is a positive going forward.  We've held the 50 day moving average on the S&P 500 daily charts.  The summation index is still moving down but that could change with another day like today.  There is a school of thought that says that we will rally into the election because of the re-election of Obama.  That could be true.  But we'll stick with the technicals and they are oversold and starting to move up on the stick indices.  So there is room to go higher.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  No trades here and the earnings are due on Friday.  Gold fell today as the futures lost over $20, breaking support.  The US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU sold off early but followed the overall market back to finished up 1/4.  The gold shares outperformed gold itself and that bodes well for the gold shares moving forward.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  I still have the open order in for the January ABX calls.  I'd like to see it filled before the earnings come out on November 1st.  May or may not happen.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The positive expiration week bias looks intact after todays market action.  But we still have the rest of the week to go.  Plenty of earnings being reported this week along with a number of economic reports.  Time will tell if this is the beginning of a new leg up for the stock indexes.  I'm not sure one way or the other but we could rally into the expiration.  After that, we'll have to wait and see.  Gold broke down today on the daily chart.  The technicals are just getting oversold.  The 50 day moving average could act as support and that comes in at around $1710.  I'm still a believer in higher prices going out in time.  But for now it appears that gold is going to take a rest.  I'd still like to get some gold share calls though.  We'll see if the stock indices can follow through to the upside tomorrow.  

We closed the week with a whimper as the Dow gained just 2 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative, the opposite of yesterday.  Summation index heading lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Short term oversold and a bounce is overdue.  The S&P 500 is trying to hold its 50 day moving average on a daily basis.  The Dow as well is trying to hold on here but it has broken the uptrend line that began in June.  The over the counter markets remain above their uptrend lines.  It's a mixed bag but we are oversold and expiration week is coming up with its usual upside bias.  GE was flat and the volume was light.  It's possible that we are trying to put in a short term bottom here at around 22.50.  Gold was weaker on the day as the futures fell over $10.  The US dollar was weaker as well.  The XAU dropped 3 3/8.  ABX off 7/8, GG lost 2/3 and NEM down 3/8.  Volume was very light.  I canceled the open order for the November ABX calls and left in the order for the ABX January calls.  I may try the November calls again next week.  Earnings for ABX are due on November 1st.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, could have slept better.  The weekly chart for the S&P 500 now has a bearish engulfing candlestick and the technicals have rolled over.  Perhaps we'll see some more weakness next week but I do believe that we will see some type of bounce first.  I could be wrong and often am.  I'm choosing not to take any risk there for now though.  I could change my mind over the weekend.  I still like gold for higher prices going forward but if the overall market falls here, the gold shares will probably follow.  I don't have any problem going out to January with the options.  But like anything else, it's just a guess.  I'm willing to take the chance here though.  The gold share weekly candlestick charts look bearish here as well, with the exception of NEM.  I'll have to double check the charts over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We tried to hold onto the gains made early today but could not.  The Dow lost 18 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive though.  Short term oversold and a bounce is coming.  The indices were mixed today.  I'd expect some type of rally attempt tomorrow into early next week.  We are still right at the uptrend line for the S&P 500 and I expect it to hold for now in the short term.  But if it doesn't, the game will have changed.  Hasn't happened yet.  GE had a slight gain and the volume was very light.  No trades here for now.  Gold was up $5 on the futures as the US dollar lost some ground today.  The XAU gained 7/8.  ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM was up 1/2.  Volume remains light here.  I adjusted down the price for the November ABX calls again.  I also placed an open order in for some January ABX calls.  I am now thinking that October could be a consolidation month for the gold shares.  That's a guess as usual.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  6 days to go in the October option cycle.  If I had the guts, I'd be willing to try the OEX calls tomorrow on any weakness.  The problem there is that if we break the uptrend line in the S&P 500, we'll be heading lower rather quickly.  The summation index is heading lower as well so I'm not willing to take the risk.  Gold is still meandering around here.  I'll keep an eye on Europe overnight and take it from there.