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Monday, December 03, 2012

A weak beginning to December as the Dow fell 60 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We are due for some downside to work off the overbought condition of the stock indices.  The question is if it turns into a retest of the November lows.  The summation index continues to the upside and that is a positive.  All eyes will be on the employment numbers Friday but that may not be as reliable as usual due to the big east coast storm last month.  GE was off 1/3 on light volume.  If GE is a precursor for the overall market as it usually is, then we will be heading lower this week.  If todays action is any indication.  Gold was up 7 bucks, which wasn't much considering the drop in the US dollar.  The XAU followed the overall market lower, down 3 1/3.  ABX off 3/4, GG fell 1 1/4 and NEM dropped 1 3/8.  Volume was relatively better in the gold shares and that is a negative.  When the US dollar is lower and the gold shares can't rally off of that, then we are most likely heading lower.  My January ABX calls are still in the red and losing more money.  Perhaps it is time to say goodbye to this trade but I will give it until the end of the week.  The gold shares would have to turn around soon to keep this trade viable.  Because at this point they look like dead money.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've started the week lower for the stock indexes.  No beginning of the month money flows today.  Could be an interesting week.  Gold isn't looking so good after todays non action.  Could be that I will have to book the loss in the January ABX call trade and move on.  We'll see.  It hasn't been a good trading year for me and this trade would simply add to that fact.  We'll keep an eye on what happens overnight and take it from there.

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