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Tuesday, December 18, 2012

The rally continues as the Dow gained 115 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The up move has legs.  Overbought and staying there.  The summation index is now moving higher.  Whatever negative chart patterns we had last week have been negated.  The transports have broken out above some longer term resistance and that bodes well for the near future.  Closer to a tax deal in Washington has been the excuse for the move up.  You can't fight price action one way or the other.  GE fell 1/4 on heavy volume, bucking the trend.  There was some specific news on GE today that was considered bearish.  GE finished well off of its lows though.  Gold got clobbered today as it fell over $25 on the futures and broke the support level of $1680.  The US dollar was lower as well.  This relationship between the dollar and gold has been going on for a while now.  They are moving lower together and that is the inverse of what is usually suspected.  It isn't bullish for gold.  The XAU held up rather well considering.  It dropped 2 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses again on average volume.  I dumped the January ABX calls that I had for an 80% loss.  This trade was never in the black and it was one of the bigger losers of the year.  I added to it on lower prices and that is usually always a recipe for disaster.  This trade will also increase my trading loss for the year.  I'll tally the final numbers there before the end of the year.  Gold continues to be dead money here.  Even worse it is losing value.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the loss.  The stock indices are in rally mode.  It is expiration week and the usual positive bias is evident.  Throw in some good news out of Washington and we are heading higher.  Gold had a horrible day and we are at the 50 day moving average.  The precious metal will need to stop its decline here or things could get ugly.  I still do like the gold shares.  They are oversold on a short and medium term basis.  However my biggest losses in the past year have been there so I will probably be steering clear of them for a while.  Money is leaving both gold and the US dollar lately.  The flight to safety play is off for now.  I probably won't be making any more trades this year.  There are only 3 days left on the December option cycle and next week is a holiday week.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.  

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