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Friday, December 14, 2012

Continuing lower as the Dow fell 35 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is flattening out here.  The weekly S&P 500 candlestick chart now has a potential evening star as well.  So the rally from mid-November could be in jeopardy.  The daily technicals on the stock indices have rolled over.  I'm sticking with a best case scenario of sideways for the market at this juncture.  We do have option expiration week coming up and that usually has a positive bias.  But until we get some clarity from Washington on the tax picture, whatever gains we do see from here will be muted.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was average.  No trades here for now.  Gold had a lackluster session even though the US dollar was lower once again.  The precious metal futures finished the day basically unchanged.  When gold cannot rally despite dollar weakness, it isn't a good sign for the bulls.  I certainly don't know why gold just can't catch a bid here with a bullish dollar backdrop.  The XAU was up a point today.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  My ABX January calls continue to languish in a losing position.  If I don't see some upwards movement in ABX next week, I'm going to have to dump them for another loss.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The over the counter stocks have been weaker in the past couple of days and that usually isn't a good sign moving forward.  We're still at the mercy of headline risk out of Washington.  The question is once we're done with that, then what?  We'll follow the technicals and let that guide us.  Gold continues to disappoint and it looks like there is no rally forthcoming.  It has all the signs at the moment of dead money.  When whatever you're trading can't rally on good news and bullish developments, then that trade is in trouble.  Of course things can turn on a dime sometimes but that is the exception to the rule.  I'll need to cut this ABX call trade loose next week most likely.  It's a Friday afternoon in December and time for a rest.

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