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Thursday, December 27, 2012

Lower again today but the market did make quite a comeback as the Dow fell 18 points on light volume.  We were off around 140 points during the session.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Still waiting on a tax deal in Washington.  Todays candlestick chart for the Dow could be a bullish hammer but we will have to wait and see what transpires in the next couple of trading days.  Some kind of deal will get done sooner or later.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was average.  Perhaps it's time to try the calls there.  I remain on the sidelines though.  Gold was up $3 on the futures and the US dollar rose slightly as well.  The XAU gained 7/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains or losses on OK volume.  Gold continues to look like dead money.  There is a lot of uncertainty in the marketplace right now and there is no flight to gold.  Perhaps that will change next year but for now gold remains an under performer.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Even though it is a holiday week, tomorrow could be important.  If we continue to rally it would be a positive sign on the charts.  If not, then we would probably be heading into an extended decline.  That is my best assessment at the moment.  There will be some kind of tax deal sooner or later.  The key I think will be how the market reacts after that.  Gold continues to disappoint on the upside but I am still looking at the gold share calls.  If we get a drop to the $1620 level on gold, that may take out the rest of sellers.  Just a guess as usual.  We'll monitor the news overnight and take it from there.

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