The blog will return.  I was taken by ambulance to the emergency room on the night of the 12th.  I was released from the hospital on the 20th.   I'm home now but the recovery will take some time.  We all know that the market doesn't care.  As always, stick with the technical indicators as best you can.  When I get my wits about me, the blog will be back to normal.  We live in the unpredictable trading world but there is one thing you can be sure of.  Be ever so thankful for your family and friends because they will be worth more than any amount of money that you'll make playing this game.

The Dow roared back today with a one day reversal to the upside.  It gained 239 points on better than lately volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  GE was up 3/8 on good volume.  Gold was up $7 on the futures and the US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 3 1/3, while GDX added 2/3.  Volume was good.  My apologies for the short blog with my usual comments but I am ill today.  I can say that volatility is back and I think we will have to bounce around before we move to new all time highs.  I am looking at the October SPY calls.  But I am very under the weather and would not put much stock in what I'm thinking under these physical conditions.  Hopefully I'll be back to normal tomorrow.

We finally got the break out of the months long congestion zone but it wasn't to the upside as I expected.  The Dow got clobbered today and fell 394 points on what passes for better than average volume these days.  The buyers disappeared.  The advance/declines were 17 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading back down.  The market recently tried to get through the zero line on the McClellan oscillator and it did but barely.  It has now quickly reversed course.  We're also short term oversold in a hurry.  It looks like the possible negative RSI divergences in the small caps are now valid.  We are also practically right back at the uptrend line in the S&P 500 that began in February.  The breakout in the S&P was the 2100 level and I did expect that level to hold.  But after the carnage today, I'm going to have to rethink that idea.  GE fell 7/8 on good volume.  It looks like GE was an early leader all the way along.  We're back to the 200 day moving average here.  Gold fell $9 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU shed 5 3/4, while GDX lost 1 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  The positive seasonal factor for gold is not happening this year so far.  However the negative seasonal factor for stocks seems to be now in effect.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The talk today was about the Fed but the Fed has been talked about for weeks.  There may be some trouble in the bond market that we're not aware of but something the market may already know.  It will all be figured out eventually.  The fact that we have already almost reached the near term support for the S&P, probably doesn't bode well.  The weekly charts here have just rolled over on the technical indicators.  I had thought that the double support from the breakout point and the uptrend line from February would contain things if we broke down in the S&P.  I will have to rethink that theory.  I had planned on getting some SPY October calls if we reached 2100 on the S&P.  After today that idea doesn't look so good.  I'm not exactly sure what is going on here but there is a chance that this could be a one day wonder as well.  There are numerous questions at the moment without answers.  Obviously the volatility that had been missing for the past couple of months has returned.  Option premiums will be higher but the potential for profits will return as well.  There will be plenty of work to do over the weekend.  Only a week to go in the September option cycle.  I don't think that I'll be attempting a trade there next week but who knows?  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.   

Muddling through another day as the Dow fell 46 points on better volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still trying to turn back up.  Directionless is probably the best way to describe the past couple of months.  It appears that the market needs some kind of stimulus to get things moving one way or another.  Only 6 days to go in the September option cycle.  No good trading signal that I can see as of now.  GE was off a couple cents on average volume.  Gold fell $7 on the futures and the US dollar had a slight gain.  The XAU lost 1 3/4, while GDX shed 2/3.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I still feel that we are going to move higher here but at this rate anything could happen.  I do notice some potential negative RSI divergences on some of the small cap indices.  But they are only potential unless we break down from here.  Something will eventually get things going here but until then, it's more of the same.  It has been one of the least volatile times for the market in quite some time.  It makes for tough trading.  I'm on the sidelines still for now.  Asia was higher overnight with Europe mixed.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Another attempt at a sell off but the market keeps coming back.  The Dow did fall 12 points on light volume but it was off more for much of the day.  The advance/declines were positive and the NASDAQ was higher.  The summation index is turning back up.  It is a market that seems to want to go higher.  So the grind upward is probably going to continue.  However with the lack of volatility, it makes the trading tough.  There simply isn't enough price movement to get the option premiums moving a lot.  I'll continue to wait for a decent signal.  Hopefully sometime soon.  GE was flat on lighter volume and came off of its lows as well.  Gold was down around $5 on the futures as the US dollar was up slightly.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  The same coming off of the lows pattern prevailed here as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is attempting to break out above the months long consolidation but we'll need to see some volume for it to be real.  The TRAN had a good session today and perhaps that will lead things higher.  We are up at near term resistance there.  More short term overbought than oversold for the major stock indices.  It doesn't look like I'll be attempting a trade in the September option cycle at this rate.  You can't try and press things sometimes in the game because it usually leads to trouble.  I will do my best to remain patient and wait for what I deem a decent signal.  It isn't easy.  Europe was higher and Asia generally lower overnight.  Not much important economic data before we finish the week and it looks like the trading for me will be in a holding pattern.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight as usual.  

The grind higher continues as the Dow rose 46 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trying to turn around here.  If successful, we'll be moving to new all time highs again and perhaps the 2200 level on the S&P 500.  No good technical signal to trade here but I do think that the path of least resistance is higher.  It appears that weaker economic data will be interpreted as positive by the stock market for now.  Eventually if the data continues to be light, that relationship will change.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was good.  GE is well off of its recent highs and not a good clue as to what the overall market is doing.  Gold rallies on the drop in the dollar.  The precious metal futures were up over 20 bucks as the dollar fell a full point.  The XAU gained almost 5, while GDX added 1 1/3.  Volume was good.  ABX was higher as well and it doesn't appear that it will fall back below $17 and give us a shot at a call trade there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  All the players are back at their desks and it did not appear as though there were a lot of sellers.  Only 8 days remain in the September option cycle.  If we get a valid signal, perhaps a short term trade will be in the picture.  Otherwise we'll roll out to October.  Volatility has shrunk again.  That implies higher prices in the near term.  I do not see anything on the horizon to negate that view.  Even though we are in a seasonal weak period for stocks, they don't go lower every year.  perhaps things can hold up into the expiration.  That's a guess as usual.  Asia was higher overnight and Europe generally slightly lower.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

We finally got the employment number today and the Dow rallied 72 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index will be trying to turn around again.  We jumped sharply in the first half hour and were never able to get back to that level.  But with the breadth as good as it was, you cannot argue with the gain.  The overall market continues to be positive and there won't be any sustainable decline as long as that is the case.  The trading trouble here is that with the muted day to day action, it's hard to make any money by speculation.  Writing the options continues to be the most profitable idea for now.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold found a bid on the weaker jobs numbers and the futures rose over $10.  However the US dollar came off of its lows and ended positive for the day as well.  The XAU added 3 1/3, while GDX gained 7/8.  Volume was good.  I'll try the ABX call trade again if we get back below 17.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got the expected upside today but it certainly wasn't anything robust.  Perhaps all the players haven't returned just yet.  Things should get more back to normal after Labor day.  There's one less day left in the 2 week September option cycle with the holiday.  The risk will be elevated.  October has an extra week on the option cycle, so the premiums will be inflated.  The trading is never easy.  The volume on the rallies has been light and we never like to see that.  The short term technical picture for the S&P is now mixed.  The Bollinger bands have now contracted and we have yet to see a big move.  My guess is that it is still coming.  The small caps continue to act well but they are overbought.  This will not last forever.  We are in a weak seasonal period.  I do not know what the catalyst will be for a break from this trading range but I'm going to try and be ready to take advantage of it.  I'll be going over the charts over the long holiday weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The market again tried to sell off today but made it all the way back.  The Dow finished with a gain of 18 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were  slightly negative.  The summation index is still trending lower.  You just get the feeling that the S&P will be moving higher tomorrow with the recent price action.  The daily candlestick chart now shows 2 hammers at the lower Bollinger band.  The short term technical indicators are mid-range or a bit lower.  I didn't purchase any SPY calls but I certainly think that is the correct play for tomorrow.  We'll see what happens after the employment numbers are released.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was pretty good.  Not sure what to make of that.  Gold was up 5 bucks on the futures as the US dollar was lower ahead of tomorrow.  The XAU rose 3 1/8, while GDX added 7/8.  Volume was heavy.  I did place an overnight order for some ABX September calls after checking the charts last night.  The double top price objective in ABX had been met and the technicals were blown out to the downside.  My order wasn't filled.  ABX was up about 3/4.  I may revisit this idea if we head back below $17.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It is simply a matter of waiting for the jobs report and the market reaction now.  There really isn't anything else to say.  If there would have been a decent signal here, I would have attempted a trade in the SPY.  But I erred on the side of caution.  I do still expect us to move higher in the near term.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Some more downside today as the Dow fell 53 points on better volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still trending lower.  We were off over 100 points during the session but made a comeback.  Still waiting on Fridays employment report.  But the volume did pick up today so perhaps the players are returning earlier than usual.  If we do get some weakness tomorrow, I might try the SPY September calls.  I'll be looking things over again tonight.  We are short term oversold on some of the major stock indices.  GE was lower by 1/8 and the volume picked up here as well.  Gold fell another $5 or so on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU dropped 1 2/3, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The Bollinger bands on the S&P 500 are implying a big move in the near future.  My guess will be that it will happen on Friday.  Which way things go is the question.  What I don't want to do here is make a trade just for the sake of making one.  To me things are leaning towards a bullish resolution to the long sideways congestion that we've endured throughout the summer.  It isn't the best signal to go long before Friday but I do believe the odds lean that way.  I'll have to look things over tonight.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  My guess is that Thursday will be a wait and see affair.

Lower today in a listless market as the Dow fell 48 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index grinds lower.  The Bollinger bands on the S&P 500 are contracting again and that implies a big move coming.  I do think that we will see a positive resolution to the 2 month long sideways congestion but that's a guess on my part.  End of the month tomorrow and the employment report on Friday are on the horizon.  I may try the SPY September calls if we continue to drift lower into Friday.  GE was flat on the day and the volume light.  Gold was off $13 on the futures as the US dollar continued higher.  The XAU dropped over 5 points and GDX shed 1 1 /3.  Volume was heavy.  Liquidation in the gold shares needs to run its course here shortly or it could turn into more of a rout than it already is.  We've worked off what overbought conditions there were and are now stuck in oversold mode.  The combination of a stronger dollar and potential rise in interest rates in the US has ended the gold rally.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A bit more volatility lately but it's nothing like we've seen before.  I think we'll probably be on hold until Friday.  Any September option cycle trade should probably be put on before then.  The market will most likely take our cues form the jobs report.  The favored scenario here would be a drift lower into the close of Thursday to set up the SPY calls.  The market rarely cooperates though.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  Traders there are also awaiting the employment report.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

We started the week off with a pop to the upside as the Dow gained 107 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index will be trying to turn around once again.  No sellers today but we can never trust a light volume rally.  We were short term oversold on the S&P 500 and that has now been relieved.  The small stocks were under performers for a change and that is something to keep an eye on.  It is probably too late for the SPY September calls on the short term basis.  If we had early week weakness we could have tried the calls.  But todays price action probably negates that.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold was little changed today as was the US dollar.  The XAU gained 1 1/8, while GDX was flat.  Volume was about average.  Oversold for gold and the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Although I'd probably like to wait until after Labor day for the next trade, we do have the jobs report on Friday.  That will most likely be a market mover.  You will want to have your position on before the release.  I suppose that I'll wait to see how the rest of the week plays out before deciding what to do.  If we continue higher on low volume the rest of the week it may pay to go the other way.  But we'll just have to wait and see.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight with the exception of the NIKK that rallied sharply.  It is the last week of summer and things may get even slower than they were today.  

Volatility returned as we got a one day reversal to the downside.  We opened up over 100 points and then fell down over 100 points.  The Dow finished the session with a loss of 53 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still trending lower.  Yellen did her blabbering and the market viewed it as negative.  However we all know that a lot can change between now and the middle of September.  The small stocks continue to show strength and as long as that occurs there will be no major decline in my opinion.  I'm now looking at the SPY September calls.  Right now I think we're setting up for a rally in the beginning of September.  That's my guess today.  GE remains flat.  GE can be traded but you really have to pick your spots.  It can go directionless for quite a while sometimes.  Gold came from well off of its highs to finish little changed on the day.  The US dollar rallied on Yellens comments.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses and the volume was good.  It was interesting how gold and the gold shares this week telegraphed the comments from the Fed today.  I suppose the markets are always speaking if you know how to listen.  But we also know that the next time around just the opposite could happen.  It's the nature of the game.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we got a reversal in the S&P.  Does that mean we're in for a hefty decline?  I don't think so.  My leaning right now is that we are setting up for some upside here soon.  Oversold on the S&P 500 and overbought on the VIX.  The seasonal tendency is for a decline in stocks here but I'm thinking that the beginning of September will go higher.  I've seen it happen before.  I could be wrong but I'm going to look to buy weakness next week.  That is the game plan as of the moment.  That could change after the review of the charts this weekend.  Perhaps some players will return to action next week ahead of Labor day as the employment report will be out on Friday.  Plenty of economic data before then as well.  Plus we'll have the beginning and end of the months to deal with.  So maybe things will finally start to pick up and the summer doldrums will come to a close.  For now it's a late summer Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another day of the summer doldrums as the Dow fell 33 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues lower.  Waiting on the blabbing of Fed chairwoman Yellen tomorrow.  I do think that we'll get a positive resolution to the recent price action despite the rollover of the short term technical indicators.  There's no volume and no conviction to price action this summer.  The TRAN was negative today but the small stocks continue to hold up rather well.  As long as that is the case, there won't be any drastic downside moves in my mind.  We'll see.  GE was flat and the volume very light.  Gold dropped another 5 bucks on the futures.  The US dollar was little changed.  The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was average.  The gold shares have rolled over and are short term oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Thought about getting some SPY September calls today but did not pull the trigger.  I'm still trying to wait for a decent signal or until after Labor day.  The VIX is overbought short term at the moment.  We'll get some Fed speak tomorrow and that will be the motivation for a day.  But what about next week?  This is why it is always best to stick to the technicals.  They look like they could turn around to the upside for the S&P and at the same time roll back down for the VIX.  But nothing is guaranteed.  We could also get more oversold as well.  I'm on the sidelines still for now.  Europe and Asia were both negative overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Finally some price movement as the Dow fell 65 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index has been trying to turn around but is heading back down again.  The S&P 500 did form a coil yesterday on an intra-day basis.  We've broken lower from there.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over as well.  We are also in a seasonally weak time period for stocks.  Do I think this is the beginning of a significant downside move?  No.  GE  was off a penny and the volume was light.  Gold fell $18 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher.  The gold shares got creamed as well.  The XAU dropped 8 1/2, while GDX shed over 2 points.  Volume was very heavy.  We are now seeing a break in gold and the gold shares that was long overdue.  It isn't the seasonal time of year to expect this but it is happening none the less.  We'll see how far it goes.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  One day doesn't make a trend so we will have to see where we go from here.  Perhaps it is some front running selling ahead of whatever Yellen has to say on Friday.  The drop in gold today also seems like an exit before the fact.  Sometimes these things just build on themselves.  Perhaps the inability to get above the zero line in the McClellan oscillator is more than I think.  Time will tell.  There is still plenty of time in the September option cycle for a trade.  I may have to move over to the SPY calls if we get oversold on the short term.  The volume is still very light right now and I do not think that any move can be trusted.  I'm also still in the mode of waiting until after Labor Day to trade again as well.  There's plenty to ponder.  Europe was slightly higher and Asia mixed overnight.  I'd expect Thursday to be a lightly traded affair.  

We started out with a pop to the upside and then sold off for the rest of the session.  The Dow finished with a gain of 17 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn around once again.  The overall market remains stronger than the Dow and there won't be any major decline as long as that remains the case.  The small stocks also continue to outperform.  I suppose the idea to wait to trade until after Labor Day is still in place for me.  GE was off almost a dime and the volume picked up a bit.  No trades here for now.  Gold was little changed as was the US dollar.  I suppose gold and the dollar are just waiting for the Yellen speech on Friday before the next move gets underway.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We had a chance for something decent to the upside when the day began but spent the day sputtering lower.  This summertime price movement or lack thereof has been frustrating to say the least.  It makes for even more difficult trading than usual.  The sidelines hasn't been a bad place to be.  I'm guessing we'll just wallow around until Friday.  Europe was generally higher and Asia generally lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.       

Back and for the was the theme of the day as the Dow fell 23 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is still grinding lower.  We did see volatility pick up a little today but with the light volume, whipsaws are more likely.  It is still summer doldrums activity and we may have to wait for after Labor Day to get things back to normal.  More Fed watching than usual with Yellen blabbing on Friday.  There is nothing else for the markets to go on for now.  GE was up a few cents on light volume.  Gold was down a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU fell 2 points, while GDX lost 1/2.  Volume was light.  The talk of the Fed rising interest rates is putting a lid on gold for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The small stocks are still relatively stronger here so I expect a positive resolution to the recent market indecision.  I'd like to see a move up to 2200 on the S&P 500 and then I would seriously consider the SPY September puts.  At the moment we remain short term overbought for the S&P 500.  For now I'll stay on the sidelines and wait for a signal one way or the other.  Europe was generally lower and Asia was mixed overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the action or lack of, overnight.

We began the day with a quick 100 point drop and spent the rest of the session trying to recover.  The Dow fell 45 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index has tried to turn back up but it is grinding lower.  The positive expiration week bias did not manifest itself.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 remain overbought.  Any selling has been met with buyers lately.  When volatility arrives it quickly is vanquished.  This has been one of the slowest trading summers in recent years.  The sidelines has not been a bad place.  GE was off over 1/8 on light volume.  Still hanging around in the vicinity of its 50 day moving average.  Gold was off around a dozen on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU was down 3 points, while GDX shed 3/4.  Volume was pretty light.  Gold has yet to have the positive seasonal bias for August/September kick in.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I am looking at the SPY September puts but I can't be predisposed to that trade.  The market has had ample opportunity to fall here technically and it keeps coming back.  We are having a problem getting back up through the zero line on the McClellan oscillator.  However if we can clear that hurdle, higher prices will be in the forecast.  I thought that we would hit new all time highs by expiration and that was wrong.  This is really a frustrating summer doldrums type atmosphere and has been for weeks.  Eventually we will break out of it but I certainly don't know when.  Perhaps when all the players return after Labor day.  But the market will go and do what it wants regardless.  We'll get some economic data out next week but not a lot.  We're also moving into the September option cycle and premiums will be high.  So from here it looks like sitting things out will be the prudent course of action.  Or inaction.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight but the NIKK had a slight gain.  I'll be going over the charts this weekend as usual.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest. 

More of the summer doldrums as the Dow gained 23 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  This should move the summation index back to sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow again.  I'm thinking we'll see new all time highs in the next couple of days.  The short term technical indicators remain overbought for the major stock indices.  Option expiration tomorrow.  The grind higher continues.  GE was up a few cents and the volume remains light.  Gold was up $8 as the US dollar was lower yet again.  The XAU rose 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was very light.  Gold has not risen as much as you would expect given the solid drop in the dollar.  That isn't a good sign for the gold bulls.  But we'll have to see how it plays out in the days to come.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The action in the TRAN today says higher prices are coming.  That's my interpretation of things here.  Perhaps a run up to 2200 on the S&P 500 and then we'll assess where to go after that.  I'm still thinking that perhaps waiting for August to get over with could be the best course of action.  I'm still waiting for some type of signal or divergence to initiate the next trade.  You can't force things.  But I am considering the SPY September puts and will keep an eye out that way.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight with the exception of the NIKK again.  We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow.

We had a one day reversal to the upside today as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The most watched index gained 21 points on light volume.  the advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The Fed minutes were really neither bullish or bearish but the market did rise after the release.  Although the short term technical indicators did roll over, they now appear to be on the way back up.  Had we closed near the lows on the session it would be another story.  Today the NASDAQ under performed and that will be something to keep an eye on.  We have not seen that in a while.  I think we'll grind higher near term into the expiration.  I'll be keeping an eye on the SPY September puts but maybe we should just let the month of August pass.  GE was up a dime and the volume was very light.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar finished flat.  The XAU lost 1 2/3, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was a bit above average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just a couple of days left for the August option cycle.  It has the feel of a run up into the close on Friday.  That's my guess at the moment.  Still a pretty quiet summertime atmosphere though.  The grind higher makes for tough trading as the time premium is constantly working against you.  That is usually the case but becomes more exaggerated with slow markets.  The volatility that did pick up early today quickly dissipated and we closed near the low there.  Expect higher prices near term.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in overnight trading.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

We got some selling today as the Dow fell 84 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index tried to head back up but it has turned around again.  We closed on the low of the day and that's bearish.  No positive option expiration bias yet.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over.  Could this be the beginning of a meaningful decline?  Perhaps, but I doubt it.  There aren't any negative divergences that I can see on the daily charts yet.  The sentiment has gotten more bullish here lately though.  I'm going to keep an eye on the SPY September puts.  GE was off a nickel and the volume was light.  We finally closed below the 50 day moving average here.  Gold was up a few bucks and the US dollar had a pretty good drop.  The XAU and GDX both had slight fractional losses on very light volume despite the drop in the dollar.  That is not bullish price action for the gold shares.  I'm not sure what to make of it.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got a little bump in volatility today.  Could the summer doldrums be coming to an end?  We are entering a period of seasonal weakness for stocks.  However the volume has been so anemic that it is hard to exactly know what is going on.  Major players are still on vacation.  One day doesn't make a trend though and we'll have to see how the market reacts to the Fed minutes tomorrow.  There was general weakness around the globe last night.  Does the market know something that we don't?