Wednesday, August 24, 2016
Finally some price movement as the Dow fell 65 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index has been trying to turn around but is heading back down again. The S&P 500 did form a coil yesterday on an intra-day basis. We've broken lower from there. The short term technical indicators have rolled over as well. We are also in a seasonally weak time period for stocks. Do I think this is the beginning of a significant downside move? No. GE was off a penny and the volume was light. Gold fell $18 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher. The gold shares got creamed as well. The XAU dropped 8 1/2, while GDX shed over 2 points. Volume was very heavy. We are now seeing a break in gold and the gold shares that was long overdue. It isn't the seasonal time of year to expect this but it is happening none the less. We'll see how far it goes. Mentally I'm feeling OK. One day doesn't make a trend so we will have to see where we go from here. Perhaps it is some front running selling ahead of whatever Yellen has to say on Friday. The drop in gold today also seems like an exit before the fact. Sometimes these things just build on themselves. Perhaps the inability to get above the zero line in the McClellan oscillator is more than I think. Time will tell. There is still plenty of time in the September option cycle for a trade. I may have to move over to the SPY calls if we get oversold on the short term. The volume is still very light right now and I do not think that any move can be trusted. I'm also still in the mode of waiting until after Labor Day to trade again as well. There's plenty to ponder. Europe was slightly higher and Asia mixed overnight. I'd expect Thursday to be a lightly traded affair.