Tuesday, August 02, 2016
A bit of volatility today as the Dow fell 90 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now heading lower. Could this be the beginning of a decline worth trading? Perhaps. But I will say that there will be a chance this week for a short term SPY call trade if you are nimble enough. If we get a retest of todays lows before Friday, that would be the spot to get the SPY calls. Hasn't happened yet. However there is also a chance that we return to the summer doldrums and that would not be the conditions that we want for trading. GE was off a dime and the volume was light. Still above the 50 day moving average though. Gold gained $11 on the futures as the US dollar was lower. The XAU rose 1 1/4 and GDX added 1/3. Volume was average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The Dow has been down 7 days in a row. This will not last forever. The relative strength of the small stocks also tells me that any drop here should be shallow. I do think that if I get a chance in the next couple of days for the SPY call trade I'll try it. It would strictly be a short term trade not to go past Monday. If we get some weakness back towards the 2150 area on the S&P 500, that would be the time to look for the SPY August calls. Once we get some upside, then we could look for the other side and perhaps try the SPY puts. But you have to be quick and you have to pay attention. I'm not exactly sure that I'm up to the task but we'll see how the market progresses from here. The short term technical indicators for the S&P have rolled over. We are still solidly above the 50 day moving average here. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. I would have thought that the market would be on hold until Fridays employment report but today changes that scenario perhaps. We'll see what tomorrow brings.