Wednesday, August 03, 2016
The Dow broke its losing streak today with a gain of 41 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is heading lower. I do think that any weakness tomorrow could be bought for a short term trade. I did place an overnight order for the SPY August calls but it wasn't filled. It already may be too late for this trade as well since we have already moved higher off of the recent low. So we'll see. There is also a potential trade for the SPY August puts if we do move higher near term. Today seemed like it was back to summer doldrums. GE was up a few cents on very light volume. Holding the 50 day moving average. Gold was off $8 on the futures as the US dollar was higher. The XAU was lower by 7/8 and GDX fell 1/3. Volume was light. Mentally I'm feeling OK. There's a potential for a trade here but things will have to line up just right tomorrow. The ideal scenario would be for some type of decline in order to purchase the SPY August calls. I then anticipate higher prices on Friday regardless of the employment report. That is what the technical set up looks to me right now. One of the problems here though is that the lack of price movement and volatility is making the option premiums muted. What I mean by that is that the price movement isn't doing much for the price of the SPY options. That lowers the potential for profit either way. However the risk of the trade and the time decay on the options continues regardless. However if things do work out to the downside tomorrow, I'll probably attempt this trade. Europe and Asia were both generally lower overnight. We'll follow the market action tonight and see if we can put on the SPY August call trade tomorrow.