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Friday, August 12, 2016

No follow through for the Dow today as it lost 37 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is slowly trending lower.  The NASDAQ was positive as the small stocks are still showing good relative strength.  As long as that continues the trend remains up.  It is however, a light volume grind.  Retail sales were flat and that scared the buyers away for a day.  Option expiration week is coming up and I'd expect higher prices with the usual positive bias.  GE was off a nickel on lighter volume.  Gold was off $9 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU shed 1/2, while GDX was flat.  Volume was light.  Gold fell despite a drop in the dollar and weak economic news.  That isn't bullish.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A very slow summer Friday is what we got today.  Could we simply slog ahead like this until Labor day?  I suppose it's possible.  Volatility has collapsed and the triple digit price moves are few and far between.  A tough trading environment.  I've been on the sidelines and will remain there until we get some kind of decent signal.  Overbought and staying there again on the S&P 500 short term technical indicators.  I'm still looking at the SPY September puts at some time in the next option cycle.  But for now it is simply wait and see.  Asia was higher and Europe slightly lower overnight.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend but that won't change the fact the we are in the severe summer doldrums.  Enjoy the weekend.

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