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Wednesday, August 17, 2016

We had a one day reversal to the upside today as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The most watched index gained 21 points on light volume.  the advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The Fed minutes were really neither bullish or bearish but the market did rise after the release.  Although the short term technical indicators did roll over, they now appear to be on the way back up.  Had we closed near the lows on the session it would be another story.  Today the NASDAQ under performed and that will be something to keep an eye on.  We have not seen that in a while.  I think we'll grind higher near term into the expiration.  I'll be keeping an eye on the SPY September puts but maybe we should just let the month of August pass.  GE was up a dime and the volume was very light.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar finished flat.  The XAU lost 1 2/3, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was a bit above average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just a couple of days left for the August option cycle.  It has the feel of a run up into the close on Friday.  That's my guess at the moment.  Still a pretty quiet summertime atmosphere though.  The grind higher makes for tough trading as the time premium is constantly working against you.  That is usually the case but becomes more exaggerated with slow markets.  The volatility that did pick up early today quickly dissipated and we closed near the low there.  Expect higher prices near term.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in overnight trading.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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