Tuesday, August 30, 2016
Lower today in a listless market as the Dow fell 48 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index grinds lower. The Bollinger bands on the S&P 500 are contracting again and that implies a big move coming. I do think that we will see a positive resolution to the 2 month long sideways congestion but that's a guess on my part. End of the month tomorrow and the employment report on Friday are on the horizon. I may try the SPY September calls if we continue to drift lower into Friday. GE was flat on the day and the volume light. Gold was off $13 on the futures as the US dollar continued higher. The XAU dropped over 5 points and GDX shed 1 1 /3. Volume was heavy. Liquidation in the gold shares needs to run its course here shortly or it could turn into more of a rout than it already is. We've worked off what overbought conditions there were and are now stuck in oversold mode. The combination of a stronger dollar and potential rise in interest rates in the US has ended the gold rally. Mentally I'm feeling OK. A bit more volatility lately but it's nothing like we've seen before. I think we'll probably be on hold until Friday. Any September option cycle trade should probably be put on before then. The market will most likely take our cues form the jobs report. The favored scenario here would be a drift lower into the close of Thursday to set up the SPY calls. The market rarely cooperates though. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. Traders there are also awaiting the employment report. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.