Thursday, August 25, 2016
Another day of the summer doldrums as the Dow fell 33 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues lower. Waiting on the blabbing of Fed chairwoman Yellen tomorrow. I do think that we'll get a positive resolution to the recent price action despite the rollover of the short term technical indicators. There's no volume and no conviction to price action this summer. The TRAN was negative today but the small stocks continue to hold up rather well. As long as that is the case, there won't be any drastic downside moves in my mind. We'll see. GE was flat and the volume very light. Gold dropped another 5 bucks on the futures. The US dollar was little changed. The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/3. Volume was average. The gold shares have rolled over and are short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Thought about getting some SPY September calls today but did not pull the trigger. I'm still trying to wait for a decent signal or until after Labor day. The VIX is overbought short term at the moment. We'll get some Fed speak tomorrow and that will be the motivation for a day. But what about next week? This is why it is always best to stick to the technicals. They look like they could turn around to the upside for the S&P and at the same time roll back down for the VIX. But nothing is guaranteed. We could also get more oversold as well. I'm on the sidelines still for now. Europe and Asia were both negative overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.