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Thursday, August 18, 2016

More of the summer doldrums as the Dow gained 23 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  This should move the summation index back to sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow again.  I'm thinking we'll see new all time highs in the next couple of days.  The short term technical indicators remain overbought for the major stock indices.  Option expiration tomorrow.  The grind higher continues.  GE was up a few cents and the volume remains light.  Gold was up $8 as the US dollar was lower yet again.  The XAU rose 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was very light.  Gold has not risen as much as you would expect given the solid drop in the dollar.  That isn't a good sign for the gold bulls.  But we'll have to see how it plays out in the days to come.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The action in the TRAN today says higher prices are coming.  That's my interpretation of things here.  Perhaps a run up to 2200 on the S&P 500 and then we'll assess where to go after that.  I'm still thinking that perhaps waiting for August to get over with could be the best course of action.  I'm still waiting for some type of signal or divergence to initiate the next trade.  You can't force things.  But I am considering the SPY September puts and will keep an eye out that way.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight with the exception of the NIKK again.  We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow.

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