Friday, August 26, 2016
Volatility returned as we got a one day reversal to the downside. We opened up over 100 points and then fell down over 100 points. The Dow finished the session with a loss of 53 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still trending lower. Yellen did her blabbering and the market viewed it as negative. However we all know that a lot can change between now and the middle of September. The small stocks continue to show strength and as long as that occurs there will be no major decline in my opinion. I'm now looking at the SPY September calls. Right now I think we're setting up for a rally in the beginning of September. That's my guess today. GE remains flat. GE can be traded but you really have to pick your spots. It can go directionless for quite a while sometimes. Gold came from well off of its highs to finish little changed on the day. The US dollar rallied on Yellens comments. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses and the volume was good. It was interesting how gold and the gold shares this week telegraphed the comments from the Fed today. I suppose the markets are always speaking if you know how to listen. But we also know that the next time around just the opposite could happen. It's the nature of the game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So we got a reversal in the S&P. Does that mean we're in for a hefty decline? I don't think so. My leaning right now is that we are setting up for some upside here soon. Oversold on the S&P 500 and overbought on the VIX. The seasonal tendency is for a decline in stocks here but I'm thinking that the beginning of September will go higher. I've seen it happen before. I could be wrong but I'm going to look to buy weakness next week. That is the game plan as of the moment. That could change after the review of the charts this weekend. Perhaps some players will return to action next week ahead of Labor day as the employment report will be out on Friday. Plenty of economic data before then as well. Plus we'll have the beginning and end of the months to deal with. So maybe things will finally start to pick up and the summer doldrums will come to a close. For now it's a late summer Friday afternoon and time for a break.