Friday, September 02, 2016
We finally got the employment number today and the Dow rallied 72 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index will be trying to turn around again. We jumped sharply in the first half hour and were never able to get back to that level. But with the breadth as good as it was, you cannot argue with the gain. The overall market continues to be positive and there won't be any sustainable decline as long as that is the case. The trading trouble here is that with the muted day to day action, it's hard to make any money by speculation. Writing the options continues to be the most profitable idea for now. GE was up a few cents and the volume was light. Gold found a bid on the weaker jobs numbers and the futures rose over $10. However the US dollar came off of its lows and ended positive for the day as well. The XAU added 3 1/3, while GDX gained 7/8. Volume was good. I'll try the ABX call trade again if we get back below 17. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We got the expected upside today but it certainly wasn't anything robust. Perhaps all the players haven't returned just yet. Things should get more back to normal after Labor day. There's one less day left in the 2 week September option cycle with the holiday. The risk will be elevated. October has an extra week on the option cycle, so the premiums will be inflated. The trading is never easy. The volume on the rallies has been light and we never like to see that. The short term technical picture for the S&P is now mixed. The Bollinger bands have now contracted and we have yet to see a big move. My guess is that it is still coming. The small caps continue to act well but they are overbought. This will not last forever. We are in a weak seasonal period. I do not know what the catalyst will be for a break from this trading range but I'm going to try and be ready to take advantage of it. I'll be going over the charts over the long holiday weekend. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.