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Friday, September 09, 2016

We finally got the break out of the months long congestion zone but it wasn't to the upside as I expected.  The Dow got clobbered today and fell 394 points on what passes for better than average volume these days.  The buyers disappeared.  The advance/declines were 17 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading back down.  The market recently tried to get through the zero line on the McClellan oscillator and it did but barely.  It has now quickly reversed course.  We're also short term oversold in a hurry.  It looks like the possible negative RSI divergences in the small caps are now valid.  We are also practically right back at the uptrend line in the S&P 500 that began in February.  The breakout in the S&P was the 2100 level and I did expect that level to hold.  But after the carnage today, I'm going to have to rethink that idea.  GE fell 7/8 on good volume.  It looks like GE was an early leader all the way along.  We're back to the 200 day moving average here.  Gold fell $9 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU shed 5 3/4, while GDX lost 1 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  The positive seasonal factor for gold is not happening this year so far.  However the negative seasonal factor for stocks seems to be now in effect.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The talk today was about the Fed but the Fed has been talked about for weeks.  There may be some trouble in the bond market that we're not aware of but something the market may already know.  It will all be figured out eventually.  The fact that we have already almost reached the near term support for the S&P, probably doesn't bode well.  The weekly charts here have just rolled over on the technical indicators.  I had thought that the double support from the breakout point and the uptrend line from February would contain things if we broke down in the S&P.  I will have to rethink that theory.  I had planned on getting some SPY October calls if we reached 2100 on the S&P.  After today that idea doesn't look so good.  I'm not exactly sure what is going on here but there is a chance that this could be a one day wonder as well.  There are numerous questions at the moment without answers.  Obviously the volatility that had been missing for the past couple of months has returned.  Option premiums will be higher but the potential for profits will return as well.  There will be plenty of work to do over the weekend.  Only a week to go in the September option cycle.  I don't think that I'll be attempting a trade there next week but who knows?  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.   

1 comment:

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