A mixed bag today as the Dow rose 49 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow with the S&P along with the NASDAQ lower.  It was a volatile session with selloffs both early and late.  We had a gap higher at the open and then a 30 point sell off in the S&P.  The market worked its way higher for the rest of the session until the final five minutes that took us back to negative on the day.  The S&P 500 remains below its 50 day moving average and the short term technical picture is now mixed.  What happens here will determine a lot.  The volume has lightened up this week at the 50 day moving average for the S&P.  If we can get through there we'll see higher prices.  If not, we'll be headed lower again.  GE was up a few cents on good volume.  Gold was off $8 and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses again on average volume.  Maybe we can finally see the gold shares reach oversold territory.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Chairman Powell will be speaking tomorrow and that should move things one way or the other.  The VIX bounced off of its 50 day moving average again today and closed above 16.  What happens here must be closely watched as well.  A break of the 50 day average should lead to higher prices.  However we are now oversold here and a rising VIX is a distinct possibility as well.  The option premiums remain steep and I'll be waiting until next week at least before attempting the next trade.  At least that's my thought at the moment.  Next week is the final week of summer for traders, so the volume and desks might be thin.  I suppose we'll see what happens tomorrow and go from there.  Asia was higher with the exception of Hong Kong.  Europe was lower.  We close out the trading week tomorrow.   

Now back to the upside as the Dow gained 240 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn back up.  We were positive for the whole session with a gap to the upside to begin the day.  The Fed minutes had a minor negative effect that was quickly forgotten.  The market has the feel of wanting to go higher.  The short term technical indicators are moving up and aren't overbought yet.  We'll see how the rest of the week goes.  GE was off another 1/4 and the volume remains good.  Gold lost a few bucks and the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on pretty light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Perhaps if we get a light volume rally going here it will present an opportunity to purchase the SPY September puts.  I do not think that any rally here has any staying power.  I could be wrong.  We did close below the 16 level on the VIX.  That caught my eye.  The VIX now rests on its 50 day moving average.  If it gets through there I may have to adjust my thinking.  Getting oversold now on the VIX and that's something to watch.  I'm still in the camp of letting this week pass and going from there.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.  

Lower today as the Dow fell 173 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is now moving sideways.  We opened lower, had a small rally but then turned around and closed on the lows of the session.  Most of the short term technical indicators for the major averages are at their midpoints or slightly oversold.  I think that we're at the moment of truth for what's going to happen here.  If we roll over here we're probably going back to test the recent lows and I don't think they'll hold.  If things turn around then perhaps we'll get a reprieve and higher prices in the near term.  Options premiums are still pretty inflated which precludes us from taking a position here.  GE was off about 1/3 and volume remains pretty heavy.  Still trying to resolve the latest accounting scandal there, if there is anything to it.  Gold bounced back $5 as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 2 3/4, while GDX added 7/8.  Volume was good.  We reached the up trend line for GDX yesterday from the beginning of the rally in June.  We've now bounced off of that line again.  Perhaps I should have been paying closer attention here as that may have been the chance to try the GDX September calls.  We still have yet to see an oversold reading on the indicators since late May though either.  Perhaps heading out to October is the thing to do.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX moved back above 17 and bounced at its 200 day moving average.  This is another indicator to keep an eye on right now.  If we can't break below 16 the decline will begin again in earnest.  That's my best guess at the moment.  We've got the Fed minutes due out tomorrow but other than that it's a light week for data.  We will have an economic talking heads meeting on Friday and over the weekend in Jackson Hole Wyoming.  The Fed chair will speak along with other economists etc.  Not sure what will come out of that but we're always at risk of some of the wall headline.  I'm going to sit tight for now.  Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see if we get any downside follow through tomorrow.  

Moving higher to begin the week as the Dow climbed 250 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This will stop the summation index from moving lower.  It will now turn around or move sideways.  In the coming days we'll know if this is for real or just another snap back.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have moved up but we're not out of the woods just yet.  More benign trade talk is about the only reason I can see for the buying.  That plus the fact that we were blown out to the downside on some of the indicators.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was heavy.  Gold dropped $16 and the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  Long overdue for a pause here and if we get oversold I'll be looking at the September calls.  October perhaps.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is back at its 200 day moving average, which contained the previous slide in this indicator.  I keep an eye on the 16 level and we're still above that.  We are working off an overbought condition there.  Of course we're one headline away from the next market catastrophe so keep that in mind.  The extra week in the September option cycle keeps things pricey as well.  I think for now I'll just watch and wait.  Europe and Asia were both higher as it appears the world is breathing a sigh of relief.  At least for today.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

It was a positive expiration day as the Dow rallied 306 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving lower but may try and turn around here.  The positive divergence in the McClellan oscillator came to fruition today.  With the comeback in stocks from the debacle on Wednesday, you can make a case that the up trend line on the S&P weekly chart is still intact.  That would be a major plus for the bulls.  Some of the medium term indicators that I have are signaling a bottom.  Nobody is looking for that.  Next week will tell a lot in my view.  Is it actually possible that we rally from here?  We'll see.  GE was up 3/4 and the volume was extremely heavy again.  Things will get settled there sooner or later.  I do not think that GE is going to go out of business.  Gold was slightly lower and the US dollar slightly higher.  The XAU was off a point, while GDX lost about 1/2.  Volume was average.  We now have a bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly GDX candlestick chart.  Perhaps we'll get a chance for the GDX September calls after all.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Quite a volatile week for stocks as the summer hasn't been as sleepy as one would like.  I have no idea what next week will bring.  The VIX remains above the 16 level and as long as that's the case, volatility will rule.  There's an extra week on the September options so there's no hurry to enter the next trade.  We've managed to hold on to the near term support for most of the major stock averages.  Some, like the RUT and TRAN have held longer term support levels.  Others, like the Dow and the S&P have held their shorter term ones.  We are still oversold on the short term technical indicators for the major stock averages.  That may be able to support some kind of short term rally here.  Beyond that I'm not so sure as we still have the big megaphone pattern on the weekly S&P 500 chart to contend with.  I think that a run to new all time highs from here would be the biggest surprise but the medium term indicators contend that isn't out of the realm of possibility.  I'll probably be keeping a closer eye on GDX this week to see if it continues to weaken.  Another thing I have to contend with is that I'll be out of the office in the beginning of September and the blog will be off line for about a week and a half.  I'll be back for the Fed announcement on the 18th.  So that has to be taken into consideration as well.  Europe and Asia were generally higher to finish the trading week.  I'll be checking things over as usual this weekend.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The trading day seemed like the market was stuck in limbo but the Dow did manage a gain of 100 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is moving lower.  It was a mixed bag with the NASDAQ posting a loss.  Unlike yesterday, it was a back and forth affair with huge swings.  There was a dip out of the range in the afternoon but the market recovered.  It has the feel of just waiting for the next drop to come.  I finally did sell my SPY August puts in the morning.  I didn't get the best price on the day but I wasn't going to wait around either.  The gain was 220% and I was lucky to get that.  2 days ago this trade was a 50% loser.  I am simply better with longer term time frames on the options.  GE got slammed today on news of accounting irregularities.  It dropped a buck which was over a 10% loss on the day.  Volume was extremely heavy.  Gold added $6 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher as well.  The XAU was up almost a point, while GDX rose 1/3.  Volume was average.  There seems to be no stopping the gold shares as they have remained overbought for 2 1/2 months.  Yes I'd like to own some gold share calls but no I'm not going to chase them here.  Maybe I should though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had a rise and fall today and remains over 20.  As long as it holds above 16 in my mind the volatility will remain elevated.  I still believe that there's something brewing under the surface of the market that is causing the decline that we're seeing at the moment.  Players are running to safety when there is no apparent reason to at the levels we've seen.  Yes there is a trade war and yes growth is slowing down a bit.  But I think the problem is beyond that when you have debt around the world that doesn't even yield anything and is actually costing you money to buy.  That makes no investing sense whatsoever.  But here we are.  Something has to give sooner or later and perhaps we're on the cusp of that.  For the S&P we're still oversold and the indicators are trying to turn back up again.  We're also in the process of testing the recent lows.  I don't think that they will hold but who knows?  We did get a potential positive divergence on the McClellan oscillator last night so perhaps there is some upside coming.  Hasn't happened yet.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight but Hong Kong bucked the trend.  We'll get option expiration tomorrow to close out the trading week.        

Volatility has been the name of the game so far this week.  The Dow got clobbered today and fell 800 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The data out of China and Germany was weak but there is something else going on here that I just can't put my finger on.  The market is truly worried about something but I certainly don't know what it is.  The short term indicators for the major averages have turned back down but they are simply going back and forth each day now.  We did practically close on the lows for the session so that doesn't bode well for tomorrow.  But who knows?  We could be up 500 points at the open.  My SPY August puts went from big losers to big winners.  It was a trading miracle.  I'm still hanging on to them as I expect some follow through downside tomorrow.  But anything goes so far this week.  US retail sales will be out tomorrow and that will get things going one way or the other.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume was heavy.  Gold rose $14 on the futures as it continues to perform well here in uncertain times.  The US dollar showed a slight gain.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on good volume.  Perhaps some shares had to be sold for margin calls.  That's a guess as the gold shares haven't been following the metal lately.  Mentally I'm feeling tired as the volatility filled trading sessions are taking a toll.  it isn't so bad when you don't have a position.  But when you've got a trade out there that must be monitored, it's a different story.  I'm surprised that I've held on to this trade this long.  The VIX had a huge spike today but it isn't overbought yet.  Another bump up tomorrow and I'm out of the SPY put trade.  In fact with only a couple of sessions left in the August option cycle I should be out of the trade tomorrow regardless.  It is at the mercy of tonights headlines and tomorrow mornings data.  The weekly up trend line for the S&P 500 has now been broken again.  Last week we were able to close back above it.  This week I'm not so sure but anything can happen when the markets get crazy like this.  I am however getting the feeling that there's something going on under the surface that we'll maybe find out about later.  It looks like we are going to test the lows of last week at 2825 for the S&P.  If they don't hold there's the 200 day moving average at about 2800.  Asia was up and Europe down in last nights trading action.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.   

The Dow soared 372 points today on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving lower.  Tariffs on China will now be delayed three months for some items and the market took off.  Headline risk.  I cannot stress that enough as my profitable SPY August puts turned into a loss in minutes as the market rallied this morning.  They are now solidly in the red but I held onto them because we are getting some Chinese data overnight that could send things back down in a hurry if it's negative.  Otherwise the trade that would have been a winner will be a loser due to the environment that we're faced with.  No technical analysis can save you from the latest press release, quote or tweet.  The short term technical indicators have turned back up again and the volume today was pretty good.  Also on the weekly S&P 500 chart, the up trend line form last December is still intact.  But we'll have to wait and see how the week finishes.  GE was up 1/3 and the volume was good.  Gold fell almost $10 on the futures with the good trade news.  The US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU shed 1 2/3, while GDX lost 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  The short term indicators have rolled over here so perhaps it's time for the gold shares and gold to take a rest.  Now that hasn't happened the previous times things have rolled over so we'll have to wait and see.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as a winning trade has turned into a loser yet again.  Of course we can't predict when news will occur but lately it seems that every other week there's something coming out of left field.  Now you could say that if it helps your trade, what's the problem?  You wouldn't have any issue with that, right?  Well actually when you're trading using technical analysis and the indicators, it is a problem.  Because if things change on a dime each day, you can throw your analysis out the window.  Volatility both ways has spiked and that's a tough trading backdrop to try and make money.  But what can you do?  You've just got to keep going.  Three days left in the August option cycle.  I'll probably take the loss on this trade tomorrow.  From there the September options have an extra week on them so the premiums will be high.  I'd like to say that I'll wait for the next signal but I'm not so sure.  Perhaps the gold shares will finally get oversold for me.  Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Selling to begin the week but it wasn't as bad as last Monday.  The Dow did fall 389 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  No big headlines today or over the weekend, however the tension in the air still exists.  Light volume today speaks of no buyers.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock averages have rolled over or are trying to.  I'm still holding my SPY August puts and they are now in the black.  I'm not exactly sure what to do here but with only four days left in the August option cycle, the risk is more than I'd like.  But with the summation index moving lower and the VIX moving higher the odds favor holding on to them for more gain.  We'll see.  GE lost a dime on OK volume.  Gold added $15 on the futures as nothing can stop this market at the moment.  The US dollar was little changed yet again.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  The gold shares didn't follow the price of gold again.  Perhaps we're arriving at some kind of short term top but that's just a guess.  I would not bet against the money that has poured into gold here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There will be economic data out this week but the market seems to be focused on other things.  The US/China trade war for instance.  Geopolitical tensions in Hong Kong.  Developments in Italy and now Argentina have shown up.  Again, the lack of volume today shows the reluctance of players to buy stocks at this juncture.  Now does this last all expiration week?  I don't know.  We could have a rally tomorrow.  The way it appears now is that we are going to go and test the lows of last week.  That would be around 2825 on the S&P 500.  Will we get there?  Will that level hold?  Always plenty of questions with no clear answers until after the fact in this game.  Perhaps I'll hold the SPY August puts until Wednesday or maybe I'll just get rid of them tomorrow.  I'm not sure buyers are going to reappear all of a sudden but you never know.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Lower to close out the week as the Dow fell 90 points on lighter than lately volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The day started much lower in the morning, the Dow then rallied back to positive territory only to fall in the final fifteen minutes.  The short term technical indicators have stalled and are trying to turn lower.  My SPY August puts went back and forth during the session.  They finished about where I bought them yesterday.  I'm holding them over the weekend but really need to get out on Monday, win or lose.  That's my thinking at the moment.  The risk of holding the options during expiration week is pretty high.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume was good.  Gold finished little changed as did the US dollar again.  The XAU fell 1 1/8, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was lighter than it's been.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No follow through upside to yesterdays positive session.  We'll find out next week if that means anything or not.  Perhaps we'll go back to test the recent bottom but that's not a guarantee.  The VIX remains above its 200 day moving average and I'm taking my cues from that and the declining summation index.  The S&P 500 was able to finish well off the morning lows and that's a plus for the bulls.  I think that we'll find out a lot more on Monday morning.  So we'll see.  I'll check the charts over the weekend as usual and be prepared for the open on Monday.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow took off to the upside today, gaining 371 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 5 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving lower but another day like today will start to turn things around there.  We did get a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move in the next two sessions.  Today takes care of that.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have turned around to the upside.  A rally out of nowhere is what happens during declines, so I'm not exactly sure if this has staying power.  I bought some SPY August puts today but my timing wasn't good.  They are already showing a small loss.  This trade already seems like it could be a mistake but we'll see what happens.  GE was up a few cents but the volume was lighter than it has been.  Gold was off around $6.  The US dollar finished little changed yet again.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains higher on OK volume.  Remaining overbought on the gold shares and it has been an incredible rally there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I decided to try a trade here today because I could see no reason for the market to take off to the upside as it did.  My regret is that I didn't wait for a better strike price.  No matter, what's done is done.  If my prognosis of a declining market is correct, we should see a run back towards this weeks lows.  That would be the short term bottom put in at around the 282 level for SPY.  Or it is entirely possible that the lows there are the bottom and we trade higher from here.  It isn't out of the question.  The VIX closed below its 200 day moving average and just below the 17 level.  We have come off of the short term overbought levels here as well.  16 is the key number here for me.  If we stay above it more decline and volatility will occur in my view.  We'll see.  With only six days to go in the August option cycle, this is a trade that has to go my direction fairly soon.  And if so, do I hold it over the weekend or not?  Do I simply take the loss tomorrow and move on?  Always an abundance of questions in the game.  I'll see how things go overnight and take it from there.  Interesting times to be sure.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight and I'd expect the same tonight following the lead of the US market.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

It was a one day reversal to the upside for most indices but not the Dow as it lost 22 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  The Dow did finish over 500 points up from the low of the session.  I'm not sure if we are actually putting in a bottom here or if this is a fake out before we head lower.  The short term technical indicators remain oversold but have turned back up.  If we continue higher from here, I'll look to try the SPY August puts.  If we fall back again, I'll try the calls if we get to the 2750 level on the S&P 500.  Running out of time in the August option cycle but I do feel that a decent trade is out there.  GE was off another 1/8 and the volume remains good.  Gold soared $30 on the futures and we've made it to the $1500 level in quite a hurry.  Obviously gold was the place to be.  That's a trade that I'll regret missing for a while.  The US dollar was little changed on the day again.  The XAU rose 1 3/4, while GDX gained 5/8.  Volume was heavy.  GDX made it to 30 today and we have resistance pegged at 31.  The gold shares haven't moved up as much as gold lately and that could be a sign that this run is losing steam.  You cannot argue with price and volume though.  If the gold shares do ever get oversold again, a call trade will probably be worth it as players who missed out will be eager to jump aboard.  Keep in mind though that GDX has risen almost 50% in just two months.  That is not sustainable.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX looks like it wants to move lower here and that would be a plus for stocks.  We are still above 16 and that can be dangerous if we remain above that level.  The short term indicators here remain overbought but have rolled over.  One idea could be to purchase some August SPY puts on a trip down to the 16 level.  There are trades out there, it is just a matter of what is going to set up for us in the coming sessions.  But the risk is still high and just a headline away from a big move in either direction.  I still think we may be able to get something done before next weeks expiration.  We'll see.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

We got the snap back today as the Dow gained 311 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues lower.  A day off from the trade war as the market recovered from yesterdays debacle.  That doesn't mean that the decline is over but at least we got a day of rest there.  We are at least attempting to reign in the decline here but we won't know if it's successful until we finish off the week.  It's only Tuesday.  The damage has been done though and I would not trust any ensuing rallies from here.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was good.  Gold continues to rise, with the futures up around $8.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  We're still overbought and staying that way for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm trying to figure out what to do here but I assume that we'll eventually head lower.  The VIX headed back down today and the short term indicators here have rolled over.  That suggests that the near term downside is limited.  I still may try the SPY August calls in the coming days if it sets up right.  However we all know the market rarely cooperates with our best laid plans.  Not to mention that we're still at the risk of the latest headline form the US or China.  Those certainly haven't been positive lately.  8 days to go in the August option cycle and the risk is evident to all who bother to take a look.  I guess ideally I'd like to see some decline for the next couple of sessions that takes out the previous low.  That would potentially set up the SPY August calls for Friday and the beginning of next week.  We're pretty oversold here but also trading outside of the lower Bollinger bands.  So sideways is a possibility in the near term as well.  The trading is never easy.  Asia and Europe were both lower overnight with Asia taking the worst of it.  I'd expect some buying in Asia tonight, the Hang Seng has been down ten days in a row.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Well today we got a collapse as the US and China have pretty much began a trade war.  The Dow lost 767 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 10 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  We are short term oversold but in this case it doesn't matter.  Everyone is selling stocks.  The uptrend line for the S&P that had been in effect since December has been broken.  We had a gap lower to begin the session and went from there.  The first logical area of support for the S&P comes in at the 200 day moving average at 2790.  At this rate we'll get there tomorrow.  I'm looking at the SPY August calls for the snap back but I'm in no hurry.  SPY support comes in around 276.  Make no mistake the trend is down and we've got a long way to go but it won't all happen at once.  If we're lucky we'll get some bounce and look to position in the SPY September puts.  The August chance has been missed most likely.  GE lost 1/3 and the volume was good.  Gold rallied on the stock demise and was up almost $20.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU added 3 1/3, while GDX gained 7/8.  Volume was heavy.  The gold share call trade has been missed as well.  I still think that we'll get to the 31 level for GDX.  However unless I see an oversold reading on the technical indicators, I'm going to have to try and stay on the sidelines here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX took off today after looking like it was going to head lower at the close on Friday.  We are now above 24 on this indicator and the short term technical indicators are extremely overbought.  Some of the medium term indicators show some room left to run higher though.  If we somehow get to 30 in the next couple of days, I will try the SPY August calls.  But it would have to be a very short term trade and definitely not held over the weekend.  We are in some very interesting times at the moment.  Opportunities will present themselves but you really have to be careful as well.  Rallies should be shorted as the positive trend line that was in effect no longer is.  The longer term trend is now lower, so you can try and play the snap backs at your own risk.  I'm pretty sure that we'll see one this week but knowing exactly when is the question.  There is also nothing wrong with staying on the sidelines and sitting things out.  You won't make any money but you won't lose any either.  Europe and Asia had declines as well last night but not as much as the US.  I'd expect them to catch up with more losses tonight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.   

The Dow lost another 98 points today on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We did come up off of the lows for the session.  The summation index is moving lower.  The jobs report came in where expected.  Foreign markets were lower and that carried over to the US.  We are now short term oversold on the S&P 500.  I'm going to say that any weakness on Monday can be bought for a short term bounce.  I'll be checking the SPY August calls over the weekend to see what's available.  This would strictly be a short term deal.  I do think that this decline is the beginning of something bigger to the downside.  The weekly technical indicators have now rolled over.  We haven't broken the uptrend line that comes in at around 2900 yet.  But I believe that in the coming weeks we will.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was good.  Gold was up $20 on the futures but it was more of a carryover from last night.  The US dollar fell as interest rates are now dropping.  The XAU and GDX were both lower on average volume.  I'm still favoring the longer term gold share calls if GDX makes it back to the 26 level.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX spiked again today but came back form the 20 level reached early on.  It looks like a short term top there and that would support gets some index calls on Monday.  However if that trade is taken it must be exited quickly if there is a profit.  Again, the medium term indicators for the major averages have now rolled over.  The trend is now down until proven otherwise.  However there will be chances for counter trend trades and Monday may very well give us one.  Another reason to try the calls on Monday was that this decline did not have terrible breadth with it.  We did not see the usual 3 or 4 to 1 declines on the down days.  So we haven't seen the broad decline yet but it is probably coming down the road.  Those are my best guesses at the moment.  Gold looks to be supported here with all the uncertainty, especially if the US dollar keeps dropping along with interest rates.  No god days of summer here.  Europe and Asia had significant drops to end the week.  The fact that the US didn't collapse is a short term positive.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend.  it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We had a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index shed 280 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were once again just shy of 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now moving lower.  The US/China trade wars perked up again today with more tariffs announced by the US.  That killed a rally that was taking place that had the Dow up over 200 points in the morning.  Technical indicators have rolled over and are getting short term oversold now for the major averages.  The jobs report is due tomorrow and if it's strong I'd expect more selling.  It is hard to trade when the headline risk occurs.  GE fell 1/3 on heavy volume.  Gold rallied on the trade war, gaining around $20 to reverse yesterdays losses.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU rallied 4 1/8, while GDX gained 1 1/3.  Volume was heavy.  The daily candlestick charts for the gold share indexes now show a bullish engulfing pattern, predicting higher prices coming.  I have tried to get the longer term GDX here for weeks and just haven't been able to do it.  I still like that idea but I will not chase things here despite the huge move higher.  But make no mistake there is a lot of money behind this particular rally in gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Volatility has ramped up this week as the VIX made it above 19 and closed above its 200 day moving average today.  That said, it is now short term overbought.  That doesn't mean that the decline has ended but perhaps a pause in the rout is due.  A weak jobs report would be a plus for stocks in my view under the current market conditions.  I could be wrong.  Volume has really picked up to the downside here and that is not a good sign for the bulls.  With August and September usually being a tough time for stocks, more downside should eventually be expected.  It is entirely possible that the megaphone pattern that I've discussed with regards to the weekly S&P 500 chart comes to fruition.  If so, we've got a lot lower to go.  Hasn't happened yet but keep that in mind going forward.  A decline in stocks would also probably be supportive of gold as money flows to havens.  But gold is pretty overbought medium term here and some decline is inevitable at some point.  Asia was mostly lower and Europe mostly higher last night.  We'll see how those markets react to the tariffs tonight.  Tomorrow we'll brace for the markets reaction to the employment report.  The quiet summer is no more.

The Fed cut rates as expected but the market didn't enjoy the comments by chairman Powell and the Dow fell 333 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative.  The breadth wasn't as bad as a down over 300 market would suggest.  The summation index is still moving sideways but another day like today will move it lower.  The VIX jumped today and is now above its 50 day moving average.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have now rolled over but aren't oversold yet.  So it appears that there will be some more selling going forward.  GE lost a few cents on very heavy volume.  However it did hold up rather well given the markets decline.  Gold dropped on the Fed comments as well, with the futures shedding over $15.  The US dollar rose and closed above resistance at the 98 level.  This could turn into a bigger development going forward and is something to watch.  A run to the 100 level would be bearish for gold.  The XAU dropped over 4 1/2, while GDX lost 1 1/3.  Volume was extremely heavy.  They piled into gold and now it looks like they are piling out.  I still like the longer term gold share calls when they get oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No guts, no glory as the SPY August puts were the play here.  It looks as though the market has plenty of room to move lower from here.  We may be in the environment of good news is bad and bad news is good as it relates to the incoming economic data.  The Fed clearly has created a dilemma here by cutting rates and then saying that may be it.  There wasn't really a need to cut today in my view but we are here to trade and make money, not complain about economic events.  We'll have to keep a close eye on what happens in markets tonight.  The jobs report on Friday will be a mover as well and if it comes in strong, my guess is lower we will go.  Is it too late for the SPY August puts?  Probably but this also has the potential of something to chase.  We'll know as time moves on.  Asia was lower, with Europe up with the exception of the FTSE.

Lower ahead of the Fed but the market did come off of its worst levels of the day.  The Dow fell 23 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  We've been sideways with the Dow for 2 1/2 weeks now.  I expect a resolution this week.  The sideways movement of the summation index usually leads to a drop lower in that indicator.  We'll see.  The Fed should drop rates by a 1/4 tomorrow and if that doesn't lead to a rally things could get interesting.  I'm still in favor of the SPY August puts but haven't purchased any.  GE was up about 1/8 on average volume.  Earnings are due here tomorrow.  that should get the stock moving one way or the other.  Gold was up over $10 ahead of the Fed.  The US dollar finished the session little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves higher on light volume.  The gold shares did not follow gold higher and that hasn't happened lately.  These issues should move tomorrow on the Fed as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We're all waiting for the markets reaction to the Fed.  When that is digested it will be on to the employment report on Friday.  After that, who knows?  No news from the US/China trade talks today.  Most of the major stock indexes remain short term overbought and have been for a while.  Tomorrow should tell the story if we are going to new all time highs again or if we roll over.  I still favor the SPY August puts.  But if you don't own any does it really matter?  I also am still in favor of the longer term gold share calls if we ever get oversold there.  Asia higher and Europe lower last night.  We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow. 

Another mixed bag to begin the week as the Dow rose 28 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were just about even.  The summation index is trending sideways.  Waiting on the Fed and that will be out of the way on Wednesday.  The US and China will start trade talks again tomorrow.  That's always a wild card but perhaps the market has grown weary of it.  Jobs report due on Friday so this won't be the typical quiet summer week.  I'm not sure what to do here so I'll wait for the Fed and go from there.  We are still short term overbought for the major stock indices.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Gold rose $7 and the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU added 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was good.  Unless we see some weakness in GDX this week I most likely will not get a chance to try the longer term gold share calls.  Money continues to pour into these stocks and that cannot be ignored.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX picked up a bit today and the indicators have turned higher there.  Whether or not this precedes some volatility remains to be seen but it cannot be ruled out.  I'd still like to try some SPY August puts but don't have the guts at the moment.  My guess is that the drop in rates due on Wednesday may already be in the market.  The reaction then may not be as positive as one would expect.  That's my guess at the moment.  Of course there's also plenty of earnings out this week to drive the individual issues.  I'm going to try and remain patient.  The best signal right now for the S&P is more of a sell than a buy.  GDX acts like it wants to go higher here but I really need to wait for a decent set up.  But it may not appear.  Europe and Asia were mixed to start the trading week.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 51 points on light volume.  the advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn back up but is still trending sideways.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ set new all time highs again.  GDP was lower than the 1st quarter but that was expected.  Earnings drove things up today just like they took us lower yesterday.  That is the trading environment that we're in.  GE was up a few cents on very light volume.  Gold was up a few bucks and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  GDX remains short term overbought but has come off of the best levels there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The overall market remains overbought as well but in rallies it simply stays that way.  That has been the case for this summer rally thus far.  We'll get the Fed on Wednesday and that will be a market mover.  The employment report then comes out on Friday.  Not sure what effect that will have unless the number is completely out of whack.  We'll have earnings to contend with as well.  I'm still considering the SPY August puts on a valid sell signal.  I'm also looking at a longer term view of the S&P 500 and a possible megaphone formation may be taking place.  That has downside implications.  The longer term gold share calls are still on my radar but we haven't gotten to oversold yet.  A lot will be determined once we get the fed out of the way and the markets reaction to that.  I'm still on the sidelines but if a proper set up appears, I'm ready to go.  Asia lower and Europe higher to finish the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

We saw some selling today as the Dow fell 129 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were short of 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still trending sideways but another day like today will turn it down.  Could we be forming some kind of top here?  The short term technical indicators for the S&P now look like they want to turn back down.  Everything was looking positive yesterday but the market does what it wants.  GE lost 1/4 on light volume.  Gold dropped almost $10 as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU lost 2 1/8, while GDX shed almost 3/4.  Volume was good.  I'm hoping that this is the start of an actual decline for the gold shares but that remains to be seen.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll get the first look at 2nd quarter GDP tomorrow morning.  That should set the early tone for the day.  It is expected to be lower than the 1st quarter and I think everyone can agree on that.  Any surprise will have market consequences.  We are still waiting on the Fed for next week.  I would like to have the guts to purchase some SPY August puts ahead of that announcement but if we do drop tomorrow that window of opportunity will probably have passed.  It also may be prudent to let the Fed out of the way before taking any positions.  But you can't stay on the sidelines forever.  Asia higher and Europe lower overnight.  We close out the trading week tomorrow.

A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 79 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were well over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still trending sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ hitting new all time highs.  Earnings are driving companies one way or the other.  We're getting back to short term overbought for the major stock indices but aren't completely there yet.  GE was up a few cents on lighter volume.  Gold was up a few bucks and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU added 1 3/4, while GDX rose almost 1/3.  Volume was light.  NEM reports tomorrow and that will most likely set the tone for the gold shares.  It really doesn't look like I'll get a chance to participate in this gold share rally.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  How much higher will we go here is now the question in my mind.  No overhead resistance and a week to go before the Fed.  I'm keeping an eye on the SPY August puts but there's no hurry to put a trade on.  The SPY calls on Monday was the play it seems in retrospect.  So I'll sit on the sidelines until there's a valid signal or something else comes along.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the earnings after the bell and see how it goes tomorrow.   

Not a quiet summer day today as the Dow climbed 177 points on average volume.  the advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still trending sideways.  Good earnings were the reason given today for the advance.  No new all time highs today but if this keeps up there will be.  It seems that my idea for the SPY August puts is either wrong or premature.  The short term technical indicators have turned back up so perhaps todays gains will have legs.  GE was up 3/8 on heavy volume.  Gold took a breather and dropped $8.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on above average volume.  There is a potential negative divergence for the gold shares on the daily RSI indicator.  If it pans out it may give us the opportunity to try the longer term gold share calls in a couple of weeks.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is back below 13 as it appears whatever selling that we saw last week has run its course.  Earnings seem to be the driver now as the US/China trade talks have faded into the background.  Another week before the Fed announcement so there's time for a rally to perhaps develop from todays rise.  I'm still considering the SPY August puts but I'll be on hold for now.  It now appears like yesterday was the time for the calls there.  But things can and do turn on a dime in this game.  The gold shares seem to be holding up better than the precious metal here and that's a plus for the bulls.  I'd keep an eye on the US dollar here though because a move above 98 will put this gold rally in doubt.  That's a guess on my part but something to watch in my humble opinion.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight as money seems to be finding its way back into stocks around the globe.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Another lackluster trading session to begin the week as the Dow rose 17 points on light volume.  the advance/declines were slightly negative.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow though.  The summation index is trending sideways.  Just marking time it seems before the Fed announcement next week.  I'm leaning towards the SPY August puts if we see a light volume levitation from here.  GE was up over 1/8 on light volume.  Gold didn't do much today and neither did the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've rolled into the August option cycle.  Really no hurry to do anything at the moment.  It is times like these that you've got to stay patient.  Gold and the gold shares remain short term overbought.  The major stock indices did see the technical indicators roll over.  The small stock indicators have turned back up.  If the large caps follow we could see a rally.  The volume and movement of that rally will let you know if it worth going the other way.  Hasn't happened yet but that is the scenario that I'm looking for.  I do still like the September gold share calls if we see a pullback.  Straight up there cannot last indefinitely.  Asia lower and Europe higher to begin the week overseas.  It's summertime and the trading is slow. 

It was a one day reversal back to the downside today as the Dow fell 68 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  It was a down week for stocks but the short term indicators remain overbought.  GE was off a couple cents and the volume was light.  Gold gave back what it gained yesterday.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume.  The gold shares still held up well despite a $20 loss in the precious metal.  I still like the longer term calls here if we ever get a short term oversold reading.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Waiting of the Fed and that is still a week and a half away.  Even with that, the announcement will come out and then what?  Could all the good news already be baked into the stock market leaving nobody left to buy?  It's a possibility in my mind.  August has been known to not be so kind to the stock market.  For now I suppose it will be just wait and see.  We're rolling into the August option cycle, so premiums will be inflated.  It doesn't look like the gold shares are going to give me a chance to get in there.  I'll remain on the sidelines hoping to get in but if we don't get oversold on a short term basis I probably won't try it.  We've gone straight up 40% the past couple of months for GDX and that is not sustainable.  I'll be looking things over this weekend as usual but I'm probably just going to wait for the Fed at the end of the month.  It is summertime.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest. 

It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and barely closed higher.  It gained 3 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is beginning to move sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Earnings are driving things until we get the fed at the end of the month.  GE was up eight cents on light volume.  Gold soared $24 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU climbed three points while GDX gained 1 1/8.  Volume was heavy again.  The gold shares broke out, had a consolidation and now have broken out again.  Overbought continuously and I'm a fool for not just getting on board.  There is no pullback to get long here.  Practically straight up has been the scenario and I did know that possibility.  It won't end well of course but nobody knows where the end will be.  GDX is now over 28 and has risen about 10% in two days.  It will get to 30 because there is no resistance in the way.  I'm still considering the September calls here but the time has passed on getting a decent trade on here.  Mentally I'm frustrated for missing out on GDX.  It isn't a good frame of mind to be in playing this game.  I just can't bring myself to buy the calls when we are this overbought both short and medium term.  However patience hasn't paid off for me here as I'm on the sidelines watching the money being made.  There is a lot of buying power behind this move and I'm sure that it has legs from here as well.  Once you see gold on the evening news, you'll know we're near the end.  The S&P has had a minor stall this week and we'll see where we go from here.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight.  We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow.

Selling continued as the Dow fell 115 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index turned around and is heading down.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock averages have started to turn down.  The TRAN got clobbered today on heavy volume and that is not a good sign.  I don't think that we're on the verge of a breakdown here but I could be wrong.  GE lost 3/8 on average volume.  Gold found buyers, the futures rose over $10.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU jumped 3 1/4, while GDX gained a full point.  Volume was heavy.  I still like the longer term gold share calls despite the higher prices and the overbought nature.  Money has decided that this is the place to be and I expect to see the 30 price for the GDX.  I did not think it would be straight up but that's what it looks like will happen.  I would still like to wait and see an oversold reading on the indicators but that doesn't look like it will occur.  Mentally I'm feeling tired after a long day and the blog will be cut short today.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight as well.  It isn't a wholesale rout for now but we'll have to see where it goes. 

Minor selling today as the Dow fell 23 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues higher.  the overall market was weaker than the Dow.  We're still short term overbought for the major stock averages.  My guess is that we'll muddle through the week and go from there.  Basically on hold until the Fed at the end of the month.  Earnings will drive specific stocks.  GE was up a dime on light volume.  Gold was off a little over $5.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves on light volume.  I'm still looking to get the longer term calls here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are now in summertime market mode.  No big swings and lethargic trading.  Players away from their desks.  Not a lot of activity.  Patience for a proper set up is the way to go here until after Labor day.  Then things should get interesting again.  We sometimes get an August swoon and I'll be on the lookout for that.  But for now it's the middle of July and I'm not in a hurry to do anything.  Asia was lower and Europe higher last night.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.  

A nondescript summer Monday as the Dow gained 27 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  Bank earnings will dictate the week most likely.  It is options expiration week but if today is any indication it will be a yawner.  No SPY trades in mind at the moment.  GE lost a dime on light volume.  Gold rose three bucks and the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed.  I'm still hoping to get some longer term calls there.  Technical conditions remain overbought.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much else to report here.  Barring a headline out of the blue, it appears that we will be on hold until the Fed at the end of the month.  Earnings will move things company specific, however I'm not sure what the overall effect on the S&P will be.  No urgency to trade here.  The overbought condition favors the puts in my mind since we've been overbought for quite a while.  It's a condition that won't last forever.  The VIX at such a low level favors complacency though.  Like I said, there's no rush to trade here.  A lot of players are out on summer break as well.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher to start the week.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

Another day another new all time high as the Dow added 243 points on light volume.  the advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  No overhead resistance for stocks so we'll see how high this can go.  I'm expecting more upside into the expiration next week.  The summer rally is in full force.  GE was up 1/4 on light volume.  Gold added nine bucks and the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains again but the volume was lower.  I'm still in favor of the longer term calls here but it doesn't look like the market will give us a chance to purchase.  I'll remain patient for now but this looks like a trade that won't happen.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I had a lot to deal with this week and you cannot effectively trade when you've got outside things going on.  There is no shame in stepping aside for a while to gather yourself.  The market won't wait for you but there will always be opportunities down the road.  We know where things stand at the moment with regards to stocks.  Overbought, staying that way, new all time highs on a daily basis with options expiration week coming up.  The Fed is ready to provide more liquidity at the end of the month even if it isn't necessary.  There is nothing in the way of higher prices.  The US/China issues are on the back burner for now.  The only potential negative that I see is on the longer term weekly chart for the S&P.  There could be a megaphone pattern being formed but if we continue higher from here that will be negated.  Not much else to report here in the middle of July.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  The weekend is upon us and I'll be checking the charts for the next trade.  But I'll also have to get some more rest after the week I've had.

The Dow climbed 227 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were even.  The summation index is grinding higher.  The NASDAQ was lower today.  It was a mixed bag to be sure.  GE was off almost a dime.  Gold was off a bit and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume.  The blog is cut short again today due to medical issues.  Thank you for your patience.

The Dow added 76 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues to move higher.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow as we continue to plow higher.  Chairman Powell spoke to Congress today and practically guaranteed a rate cut at the end of the month.  So it looks like a run higher into the July expiration is what is in the cards.  No overhead resistance so we'll have to see how far it goes.  GE lost a nickel on light volume.  Gold rallied as the futures added almost twenty bucks.  The US dollar dropped.  The XAU was up almost two points while GDX gained over 1/2.  Volume was good.  It looks the consolidation here is over and we're about to make another run higher.  Need to get those longer term GDX calls as soon as possible now.  This has the look of a trade that will only be successful because the money flows into the gold shares have been very positive.  What it means is that a lot of players are in this trade and will support higher prices going forward.  It looks like September is the month that they've chosen to complete the run up.  That's what the open interest in the options is telling me.  They're not going to announce it, you just have to pay attention on your own.  A drop back to 24.5 would be a gift and I don't think that's going to happen.  The technical indicators remain overbought but that means nothing in rallies like this.  You'll know it's over when you see gold on the news at night and how much it has gone up.  That will be what the smart money needs to dump what they've got to the latecomers.  Should be in September.  Mentally I'm all over the place with health issues at the forefront.  But the market doesn't care.  I do say that a lot but it's important that you know and deal with the truth.  Money is moving around and being made and lost by the players.  It doesn't matter who you are or how much you've got.  The game itself is bigger than that.  So your personal issues, health, etc. don't affect the prices of the markets.  At this point it appears the Fed is going to continue to flood the market with cheap money which will keep the rally going.  The decline will come when that stops.  Perhaps earnings won't pan out in the near term but that remains to be seen.  The technical indicators remain overbought on the S&P but in rallies they stay that way.  The NASDAQ hit a new all time high today.  The summer rally lives on.  Asia was mixed and Europe a bit lower in last nights trade.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Just got out of the hospital.  Recovering from surgery yesterday.  The market doesn't care about our individual issues.  Will have the blog up and running again as soon as possible.

Had a medical issue and went to the emergency room yesterday.  Once again health must take precedent over the market.  The Dow did rise 170 points on light volume, so the McClellan oscillator signal was valid.  I did not expect such a large price movement on a shortened session before a holiday.  New all time highs for some of the indices and there is no overhead resistance.  I'll have more tomorrow after the jobs report.  Rest and recovery for me now.

The Dow drifted higher today and gained 69 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  Not a lot to say about todays price action.  To me, it has the feel of sideways before moving higher for the Dow.  The S&P 500 set another new high today.  We did get a signal for a strong move in the McClellan oscillator last night.  However today doesn't fulfill that and tomorrow is a shortened session.  So it appears the signal is invalid this time around.  The VIX continued lower today and that means complacency is rampant.  It also can mean higher prices in the near term as well.  The Bollinger bands did not contain things here.  GE was flat and volume was light.  Gold gained back all that it lost yesterday.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX also rebounded to the extent of yesterdays losses.  Quite impressive I might add.  Volume was good.  Money is flowing into the precious metals complex.  Calls are in order if a chance comes up.  I see more money is flowing into the September GDX contracts, so that is probably where things are set up to be profitable.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Holiday mode is here and we're just waiting for the jobs number on Friday at this point.  I'm guessing that prices will rally regardless of the report unless it is something way out of the ordinary.  I do think that waiting until next week to do something is probably in order as well.  I am really a believer in the gold shares even more so after todays price action.  I may have to go higher on the strike price though because there seems to be no getting back to oversold territory.  I'll remain patient for this week at least.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  Short session tomorrow here in the US and then an off Thursday for the 4th.  Simply waiting for the employment report.

Well we made it through the weekend unscathed and the Dow rose 117 points on good volume today.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The US/China meeting didn't really do anything but it was better than more tariffs.  So the market rallied.  We did finish well off of the highs for the day but at least it was positive.  Volume was good and that's a plus.  It's a short holiday week with an early close on Wednesday.  Thursday the US markets will be closed.  If not for the employment report on Friday, most traders would take the rest of the week off.  We did hit another new all time high for the S&P 500 today but now I don't know how much further we can go in the near term.  We are now right at the top of the Bollinger band there.  I'm not bearish here but we'll probably be in a holding pattern waiting on the jobs report.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Gold took a beating today as it doesn't like peaceful resolutions.  The gold futures fell $27 as the US dollar was sharply higher.  The XAU dropped 2 7/8, while GDX lost almost a point.  Volume was heavy.  This fits in with the scenario of falling back to the breakout point for the gold shares.  That would be 23.5 for GDX and the spot to try the longer term calls there if you're so inclined.  I myself would like to try them if all goes according to plan.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX dropped a full point today and has pierced the lower Bollinger band.  That is usually the spot where things would turn around.  This implies some volatility retuning to the marketplace in the near term.  I'm not so sure that will happen given the holiday week time frame.  But it's something to keep an eye on.  I myself will be keeping an eye on the gold shares and looking for an entry point.  More downside would be a plus as it would shake out whoever chased the recent move higher.  There's always the chance that my idea for the gold shares here is completely wrong as well.  However I am a believer in price and volume.  The recent move up had those requirements.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight.  We'll see how things go tonight.

We got some end of the month buying today as the Dow gained 73 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 positive.  This will move the summation index back up.  Traders were positive before the US/China meeting.  Perhaps the market knows something that we don't.  We'll get whatever headline comes out of that meeting and go from there.  Monday will be an interesting session.  My guess is that day will set the tone for the holiday week.  But we can only guess at the results right now.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock averages have turned back up.  You get the feeling that perhaps we'll see some kind of rally to new all time highs on Monday.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Gold was slightly higher as the US dollar was little changed again.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  A waiting game here as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I simply can't remember when the market was on such pins and needles waiting for the results of a weekend meeting.  The fact that is happens on Saturday will give everyone time to digest the news.  That also allows the spin to go both ways with the comments afterward.  The technical indicators at the moment are pointing towards higher prices.  My view is that whatever happens it will be viewed as positive and the summer rally will be on.  It could be a repeat of the move higher into the June option expiration.  A strong week next week followed by consolidation and then a run up into expiration.  That's quite a long guess, even for me.  We'll simply have to wait and see what happens.  I'm waiting for the gold shares to get back to oversold but they have become popular and the wait could be a while.  Still short term overbought there but the straight up move has stalled here.  Remaining patient for the time being.  Europe higher and Asia lower overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest. 

The Dow is running in place as it fell 10 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  Obviously the overall market is doing much better than the Dow.  Today should move the summation index back to positive territory but it isn't exactly moving higher just yet.  The economic data that has been coming out has been a bit light.  But the market is simply waiting to hear what happens over the weekend with the US and China.  That is where we are at.  End of the month, quarter and half the year tomorrow.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume remains light.  Gold was slightly lower and the US dollar little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  Simply waiting for things to get oversold here but it could take a while.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Nothing new to report.  All that was said so far this week still applies.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages are trying to turn back up.  The short term indicators for the gold shares have now rolled over and still remain overbought.  I'm expecting stocks to head back up and hit new all time highs again.  I'm hoping gold takes a breather and I'll be able to get positioned in the September or October GDX calls.  It's still a watch and wait mode for me.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Just hanging around today as the Dow fell 11 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  Nothing new to report really.  The short term technical indicators have turned down but it looks like they may be trying to curl back up.  Potential double tops are still in place for a few of the major stock averages.  End of the month coming up as well as the G-20 meeting with the US/China get together.  I doubt there will be a lot of positions taken ahead of that because the results are unknown.  And even when they are known, questions will remain.  Interesting times.  GE was up a nickel and volume remains light.  Gold lost six bucks and is due for a rest here.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on good volume.  They did both finish well above their lows for the session.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Things are on hold ahead of this weekends meetings.  We'll get the reaction to all that on Monday and then it's a holiday week with the market closed on Thursday.  Most players will be off on Friday and some will take the whole week.  So unless there is a strong signal to do something, sitting things out for now is the strategy.  There will still be a couple of weeks left in the July option cycle after the holiday on the 4th.  I'm hoping to get a chance at the longer term GDX calls at some point.  That's the plan for now.  Otherwise we'll remain patient and simply wait for the next perceived opportunity.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the after hours headlines. 

Heading down today as the Dow fell 179 points on slightly better than average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index sideways.  Once again the overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Some Fed talk and lower home sales today but nothing out of the ordinary in my view.  We were overbought and now are relieving that condition.  Whether or not it turns into something more remains to be seen.  The VIX is back above 15 and its 50 day moving average.  That's something to keep an eye on.  GE lost a few cents on light volume.  Gold added $7 on the futures but the US dollar was a bit higher today.  The XAU fell 1 1/8, while GDX dropped 1/2.  Volume was good once again.  The gold shares have been going straight up and are extremely overbought.  A drop or pause here is completely warranted.  A drop back to 24 on GDX will be where I'll be looking for the longer term calls there.  Patience is the key now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  One day doesn't make a decline for stocks but the potential topping patterns that I mentioned yesterday are still in place.  We're basically on hold until the US/China meeting over the weekend.  I expect some type of positive resolution there even if it just means getting back to the bargaining table.  That would most likely lift stocks and perhaps send gold lower.  That's my guess for now.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices have rolled over.  They still have plenty of room to fall but we could also see just a sideways movement in the indicators and higher prices for stocks.  I don't have any SPY trades in mind right now since we've just rolled into the July option cycle and the premiums are high.  However if my indicators show a short term oversold reading before the weekend, I may try the SPY July calls looking for good news over the weekend.  We'll just have to wait and see how the rest of the week plays out.  Europe and Asia were lower in last nights trading action.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Taking a breather today as the Dow was up 8 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving up.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Waiting for the G-20 meeting which begins on Friday with the US/China trade talks to resume there.  Not exactly sure what we'll see out of that.  The market is still overbought here though but that hasn't mattered lately.  The VIX is at its 50 day moving average.  RUT and TRAN were both lower today.  The TRAN has a potential head and shoulders top here and that is something to watch.  A mixed bag of economic data due out this week.  We've got the end of the month and 2nd quarter coming up on Friday as well.  GE lost almost twenty cents on light volume.  Gold continues its uninterrupted ride higher as it gained over $20.  The US dollar was lower again as well.  The XAU rose 2 3/4, while GDX added almost a full point.  Volume was heavy.  There was a chance that things would move straight up here and that is what has happened.  Extremely overbought for the gold shares but there is nothing in the way of higher prices.  I will still wait for some type of pullback or consolidation because chasing it here is not the best idea in my mind.  I may miss out on this move if it just keeps rising but it cannot go straight up forever.  I do believe in the breakout though and look for a target of 30 for GDX going forward.  I'm also still in favor of going out to September or October on the GDX calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We also have some Fed speeches due tomorrow that could move things for stocks.  My guess is that we're simply in a pause before we move higher.  There is also a chance that some major indices are making double tops here before they move lower.  QQQ, NYA and even the S&P 500 have this look at the moment.  I think that we're going to continue to make new all time highs because the volume heading up to now has been pretty good.  I could be wrong.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.  

Some minor selling to finish out the week as the Dow fell 34 points on expiration heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues higher.  No news to speak of just a quadruple option expiration as happens in June.  Stock indices remain overbought.  There are potential evening starts on the daily candlestick charts.  However the flow of money probably isn't over here and I'd expect even more new all time highs as the days go on.  Things may quiet down a little now that summer has arrived.  GE lost over 1/8 on lighter volume.  Gold continues higher adding $6 to the $1400 level.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  The technical indicators for GDX are blown out to the upside.  Combine that with the strong resistance here at the 25 level and it is time for these stocks to take a breather.  As it stands now, a drop back to 24 might be all we get.  I'll be looking for the longer term calls at that level if we get there.  mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've gotten both the fed and options expiration out of the way.  New all time highs were achieved for the S&P 500.  Next up is the meeting between the US and China at the end of next week.  Not sure what we'll see out of that and the market is always at the mercy of headline risk.  The rally this week was strong and that cannot be ignored as well.  The VIX did move higher in the past couple of sessions so that is something to keep an eye on.  Gold broke out on very good volume but it certainly needs a rest.  However the way that it moved lets you know that the rally is for real.  Hopefully we'll get a chance at GDX again in the near future.  I'm looking at the September or October calls.  We do need to see some type of pause or consolidation though to work off this extreme overbought condition.  Patience for now is what is needed there.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight.  It looks like the same end of he week profit taking that we also saw today in the US.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The rally continues as the Dow gained 249 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high.  The positive option expiration week bias has been in full effect.  New highs on good volume is a positive sign for the bulls.  Remaining overbought on the short term technical indicators as the rally lives on.  There was no news today but there seems to be plenty of money around to drive things higher.  Enjoy the ride.  GE was up about 1/4 on good volume.  Gold exploded to the upside and broke through its long term resistance.  The precious metal futures gained over $40.  The US dollar continued lower.  The XAU soared 3 1/2, while GDX added over a buck.  Volume was extremely heavy.  GDX is at the resistance of 25 already.  At this rate it will blast right through.  We may not get a pullback to get long at this rate.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Up, up and away at the moment.  Plenty of liquidity it seems.  I'm being called away right now so the blog has to be cut short.  More tomorrow.  Europe and Asia higher too.  We'll close out the week with option expiration tomorrow.   

Well the Fed came and went.  The Dow rose 38 points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The rally yesterday took care of whatever dovish talk that we got from the Fed today.  In reality, nothing has changed.  the overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Expiration week, a positive bias and we'll see if we can get new all time highs somewhere by the end of the week.  Overbought and staying there which is the sign of a rally.  GE was off a few cents on good volume.  Gold rallied over ten bucks as the US dollar dropped.  The XAU added almost a point, while GDX rose 1/3.  Volume was good.  Very overextended on the technical indicators for the gold shares.  Reaching extremes in some cases.  That doesn't mean that the rally is over but it does mean that there isn't much more room to the upside for now.  Of course I wish I still had those GDX June calls that I sold last week.  A lot of money left on the table there.  Although I had a feeling that this is way things would play out, I could not risk the opposite happening as well.  No one could actually predict that the indicators would get this blown out to the upside.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There's still a couple days left this week to keep running things up for stocks.  The VIX is now below 15, so the rally has legs.  Just waiting on new all time highs for the S&P.  Perhaps news of a trade deal at the end of next week will do it.  Certainly interest rates won't be getting in the way of any rally at this point.  Could we climb all the way through the July option cycle?  It isn't out of the question.  The overbought technical condition is calling for a sell signal but I just don't see it happening here at the moment.  As for the gold shares money tells the story there as they have attracted it.  Price and volume tell me that this rally has staying power.  The next step is waiting for some pullback and that is what I'll do.  I'm looking out to the September and October GDX call options.  There's resistance at 25 but once GDX gets through there it is a clean shot to 30.  There is nothing in the way.  So my guess is that if this rally is for real, we'll get there in the autumn.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade.  We'll see how they react to the Fed tonight. 

A nice move higher today ahead of the Fed as the Dow soared 353 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  We got a signal last night for a big move in the next two sessions from the McClellan oscillator.  Today takes care of that.  Positive trade front news as now the US and China will start negotiating again.  There's also a supposed meeting between the two leaders at the G-20 meeting at the end of next week.  There was other positive news for certain companies that the street liked to hear.  Interesting that it all comes out during options expiration week but that is the game we are playing.  It's not a surprise as the positive expiration bias needs something to get it going.  We'll see how the market reacts to the Fed tomorrow but expect higher prices.  GE was up 1/3 on good volume.  Gold rallied as well, gaining around $8 on the futures.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  Still overbought and staying there for the gold shares as well as the overall market.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The sideways consolidation has resolved itself to the upside for the major stock indices.  I guess at this point we can expect a trip to new all time highs for the S&P 500.  The VIX fell below its 50 day moving average today.  Unless we get something negative from the Fed tomorrow, we should move up for the rest of the week regardless of the overbought conditions.  Perhaps some profit taking before the end of the week.  However if we moved like this ahead of the Fed, I doubt that we'll be heading lower anytime soon.  That is what the market is saying at the moment.  Now that could all change with a negative headline but I don't think that it will this week.  Option expiration weeks are interesting times.  Europe was higher and Asia as well with the exception of NIKK.  All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow.    

Just waiting on the Fed as the Dow rose 23 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The small stocks were relatively better that the large and that's a positive.  Sideways for a week now at the 50 day moving average for most of the major averages.  Short term overbought and staying there as well.  I would like to try the SPY June puts ahead of the Fed announcement but probably won't.  With less than a week now for the June option cycle, the risk is pretty strong.  But we'll see.  Perhaps I'll get brave before Wednesday at 11.  GE fell almost twenty cents on average volume.  Gold and the US dollar were little changed.  A waiting game here as well it seems.  The XAU and GDX had fractional upside moves on good volume.  Perhaps I should have held on to the GDX June calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much else to report on todays market action.  The VIX is right at its 50 day moving average and close to the moment of truth 15 level.  My guess is that all will be revealed on the markets reaction to the Fed statement on Wednesday.  I think everybody expects a no change in rates announcement with a dovish speech afterward.  Is it already in the market though?  Maybe another look at the SPY June puts is in order.  I'll ponder this idea tonight.  I don't want to think that just because the last trade was a winner that I've got things figured out.  We all should know better than that.  I am still waiting for a gold pullback to try the calls there again as well.  But it seems like the volume just keeps coming into the gold shares and that is a bullish development for sure.  I will have to try and be patient for a set up.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight trading activity.

Another day of bouncing round as the Dow lost 17 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  We're still short term overbought for the major stock indices.  Expiration week is on tap and that usually has a positive bias.  We've got the Fed announcement on Wednesday and that will be the main market mover in my humble opinion.  The VIX got to its 50 day moving average today.  We're at the moment of truth here.  A break below and the rally will continue.  If the 50 day holds, a decline will take place.  We're oversold on the VIX but in rallies we stay that way.  Next week will tell the tale.  I'll consider a trade over the weekend if I can figure out which way to go.  GE was off eight cents on light volume.  Gold was slightly higher and finished well off the highs for the session.  The US dollar had a good day.  The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on average volume.  They too finished off of their highs for the day.  As much as I would have liked to hold on to the GDX June call trade, I sold my position today.  I did not get the best price on the day but I didn't get the worst either.  The gain was 275%.  I still think that the gold share calls are the place to be and I will look to try them again on weakness.  I do think that they could move higher next week but they are short term overbought and the options are running out of time.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Trying to figure out just what's next for the market.  A run to new all time highs or a roll over for another decline?  I do think that next week will tell a lot because we are about to reach summer mode for traders.  Vacations, potential thin markets etc.  However we do remain at the mercy of the next tariff headline as well.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to try and come up with a strategy.  I like the way the gold shares broke out on volume but it may be time for a rest there.  The weekly charts show more room to the upside though.  I would have liked to have the guts to hold on to that trade but the price movement today wasn't exactly positive and perhaps we're due for a breather there.  That was my guess.  We'll see how things unfold next week.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower to finish the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Moving higher after a pause as the Dow climbed 101 points on light volume.  the advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  We bounced around a lot today but a very late buying spree took the Dow up over 100.  Overbought on the short term indicators and staying that way.  That is the hallmark of a rally.  RUT had a good day and that's a plus.  The VIX continues in a sideways channel above its 50 day moving average.  The only caveat here is the low volume.  It is wise not to trust light volume rallies.  But we are almost to option expiration week so who knows?  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold continues to drift higher as the futures gained around eight bucks.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX added 1/4.  Volume was pretty light.  Remember what I just said about light volume rallies.  Overbought and staying that way here as well.  I'm still holding on to my GDX June calls.  I really need to give some thought to simply getting out of this trade even with a little over a week to go.  We will not stay overbought here forever.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still trying to figure out where we go next here.  You can easily make a case for either direction in stocks.  We could drift higher if we don't get any negative tariff headlines before expiration.  We do have some possible Middle East tensions arriving with the bombing of a couple oil tankers.  There isn't any fundamental market news at the moment.  Waiting on the Fed statement next week as a change in rates is not in the cards this time around.  But that isn't until Wednesday and that's a long way off.  I'll ponder what to do with this GDX call trade tonight and take it from there.  Asia lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow. 

The pause continues as the Dow fell 43 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving up.  Not a broad decline here so I think things favor the bulls for now.  This has the feel of just a stop on the way to higher prices.  As long as we don't see a huge decline near term, we're probably heading higher.  GE was up over 1/8 on average volume.  Gold was up five bucks and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU added almost a point, while GDX rose 1/3.  Volume was average.  The gold shares are overbought and staying that way which is what occurs in up trends.  My GDX June calls are still in the black with seven days to go.  23.5 remains the target and hopefully I won't get too greedy if we get there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No tariff headlines or anything else to derail the process here this week.  That could all change tomorrow of course but we'll stick with what we've got.  Short term overbought or getting there for most of the major stock averages.  I'm expecting a run up into option expiration next week.  Not sure if it will take us to new all time highs on the S&P but it could.  We'll have the Fed to deal with in a week.  Should be a dovish statement and supportive to stocks.  But that's a week away.  The VIX continues sideways and it gives me a feeling that a big move there is coming up.  Which direction is the question.  The contracting Bollinger bands there also supports the big move theory.  But we can only guess at this point if it's up or down.  I do think something will happen before expiration though because it's almost time for summer vacations and players will be taking off.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Due for a pause and we got one today as the Dow shed 14 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were just about even.  the summation index is moving higher.  We did open higher and close lower for a one day downside reversal.  The short term technical indicators are starting to turn back down and they haven't just yet.  So I do think things could go either way now.  The VIX is starting to move sideways and the Bollinger bands there are coming together.  I would not be surprised to see the market roll over here again.  I do think the odds are less favorable for a run to new highs but that isn't out of the question either.  8 days left in the June option cycle so a trade is out there in my humble opinion.  GE was up a few cents on light volume.  Gold attempted to stabilize today and was up a buck or so.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on pretty light volume.  My GDX June calls are still showing a profit.  If we can continue to move sideways here, then this trade has a chance to be profitable.  If we drop from here in all likelihood this trade will die.  I'm a believer in price and volume.  The way GDX moved up recently says to me that the uptrend is real.  But whether or not it gets higher before expiration is the question.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The star appearing on the daily S&P candlestick chart yesterday doesn't look as ominous after todays price action.  But I still can't rule out that we've arrived at some type of short term top for the S&P.  If we move higher tomorrow then I'm wrong and today was the only pause we'll see.  It does seem like money around the world is moving back into stocks.  The lack of negative tariff talk seems to help.  That and jawboning by the worlds central bankers seems to have brought back the markets mojo.  We'll see how long it lasts.  Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

We begin the week on a positive note as the Dow gained 78 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  the overall market was stronger than the Dow and that's a plus.  We did however, finish well off of the highs for the session in all the major averages.  Combine that with the short term overbought condition we now find ourselves in leads me to believe that a pause is in order.  The question is whether it is worth a trade or not.  We may have already passed the optimum point to try this short term idea.  Today could have been it.  We might simply wait for whatever pullback there is here to get the SPY June calls into the expiration next week.  Just throwing out ideas here for now.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold took a hit today as the tariffs on Mexico have been canceled.  The precious metal futures dropped $14 and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU dropped a point, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was good.  My GDX June calls are still showing a profit but it was cut in half today.  I may have missed the right time to sell here but I'm still holding them for now.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over now for the gold shares.  I'm looking for GDX to hang in there this week by moving sideways from here and then we'll see what happens after that.  Subject to change as this week progresses though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've had a pretty good rally from the recent lows but it is due for a pause here in my view.  I can't rule out a trip to new all time highs before expiration because we've made back up a lot of ground in a hurry.  However today looks like a doji (star) on the daily candlestick chart for the S&P and could be the sign of  a short term top.  We're overbought but we could stay that way as happens in solid up trends.  Tomorrows price action will go a long way to telling us where we're at.  Gold needs to hang on tomorrow if there's any hope for a consolidation instead of a drop.  That's my best guess at the moment.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight but some markets were on holiday.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.