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Monday, August 19, 2019

Moving higher to begin the week as the Dow climbed 250 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This will stop the summation index from moving lower.  It will now turn around or move sideways.  In the coming days we'll know if this is for real or just another snap back.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have moved up but we're not out of the woods just yet.  More benign trade talk is about the only reason I can see for the buying.  That plus the fact that we were blown out to the downside on some of the indicators.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was heavy.  Gold dropped $16 and the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  Long overdue for a pause here and if we get oversold I'll be looking at the September calls.  October perhaps.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is back at its 200 day moving average, which contained the previous slide in this indicator.  I keep an eye on the 16 level and we're still above that.  We are working off an overbought condition there.  Of course we're one headline away from the next market catastrophe so keep that in mind.  The extra week in the September option cycle keeps things pricey as well.  I think for now I'll just watch and wait.  Europe and Asia were both higher as it appears the world is breathing a sigh of relief.  At least for today.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

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