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Monday, August 12, 2019

Selling to begin the week but it wasn't as bad as last Monday.  The Dow did fall 389 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  No big headlines today or over the weekend, however the tension in the air still exists.  Light volume today speaks of no buyers.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock averages have rolled over or are trying to.  I'm still holding my SPY August puts and they are now in the black.  I'm not exactly sure what to do here but with only four days left in the August option cycle, the risk is more than I'd like.  But with the summation index moving lower and the VIX moving higher the odds favor holding on to them for more gain.  We'll see.  GE lost a dime on OK volume.  Gold added $15 on the futures as nothing can stop this market at the moment.  The US dollar was little changed yet again.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  The gold shares didn't follow the price of gold again.  Perhaps we're arriving at some kind of short term top but that's just a guess.  I would not bet against the money that has poured into gold here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There will be economic data out this week but the market seems to be focused on other things.  The US/China trade war for instance.  Geopolitical tensions in Hong Kong.  Developments in Italy and now Argentina have shown up.  Again, the lack of volume today shows the reluctance of players to buy stocks at this juncture.  Now does this last all expiration week?  I don't know.  We could have a rally tomorrow.  The way it appears now is that we are going to go and test the lows of last week.  That would be around 2825 on the S&P 500.  Will we get there?  Will that level hold?  Always plenty of questions with no clear answers until after the fact in this game.  Perhaps I'll hold the SPY August puts until Wednesday or maybe I'll just get rid of them tomorrow.  I'm not sure buyers are going to reappear all of a sudden but you never know.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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