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Tuesday, August 20, 2019

Lower today as the Dow fell 173 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is now moving sideways.  We opened lower, had a small rally but then turned around and closed on the lows of the session.  Most of the short term technical indicators for the major averages are at their midpoints or slightly oversold.  I think that we're at the moment of truth for what's going to happen here.  If we roll over here we're probably going back to test the recent lows and I don't think they'll hold.  If things turn around then perhaps we'll get a reprieve and higher prices in the near term.  Options premiums are still pretty inflated which precludes us from taking a position here.  GE was off about 1/3 and volume remains pretty heavy.  Still trying to resolve the latest accounting scandal there, if there is anything to it.  Gold bounced back $5 as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 2 3/4, while GDX added 7/8.  Volume was good.  We reached the up trend line for GDX yesterday from the beginning of the rally in June.  We've now bounced off of that line again.  Perhaps I should have been paying closer attention here as that may have been the chance to try the GDX September calls.  We still have yet to see an oversold reading on the indicators since late May though either.  Perhaps heading out to October is the thing to do.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX moved back above 17 and bounced at its 200 day moving average.  This is another indicator to keep an eye on right now.  If we can't break below 16 the decline will begin again in earnest.  That's my best guess at the moment.  We've got the Fed minutes due out tomorrow but other than that it's a light week for data.  We will have an economic talking heads meeting on Friday and over the weekend in Jackson Hole Wyoming.  The Fed chair will speak along with other economists etc.  Not sure what will come out of that but we're always at risk of some of the wall headline.  I'm going to sit tight for now.  Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see if we get any downside follow through tomorrow.  

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