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Thursday, August 01, 2019

We had a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index shed 280 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were once again just shy of 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now moving lower.  The US/China trade wars perked up again today with more tariffs announced by the US.  That killed a rally that was taking place that had the Dow up over 200 points in the morning.  Technical indicators have rolled over and are getting short term oversold now for the major averages.  The jobs report is due tomorrow and if it's strong I'd expect more selling.  It is hard to trade when the headline risk occurs.  GE fell 1/3 on heavy volume.  Gold rallied on the trade war, gaining around $20 to reverse yesterdays losses.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU rallied 4 1/8, while GDX gained 1 1/3.  Volume was heavy.  The daily candlestick charts for the gold share indexes now show a bullish engulfing pattern, predicting higher prices coming.  I have tried to get the longer term GDX here for weeks and just haven't been able to do it.  I still like that idea but I will not chase things here despite the huge move higher.  But make no mistake there is a lot of money behind this particular rally in gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Volatility has ramped up this week as the VIX made it above 19 and closed above its 200 day moving average today.  That said, it is now short term overbought.  That doesn't mean that the decline has ended but perhaps a pause in the rout is due.  A weak jobs report would be a plus for stocks in my view under the current market conditions.  I could be wrong.  Volume has really picked up to the downside here and that is not a good sign for the bulls.  With August and September usually being a tough time for stocks, more downside should eventually be expected.  It is entirely possible that the megaphone pattern that I've discussed with regards to the weekly S&P 500 chart comes to fruition.  If so, we've got a lot lower to go.  Hasn't happened yet but keep that in mind going forward.  A decline in stocks would also probably be supportive of gold as money flows to havens.  But gold is pretty overbought medium term here and some decline is inevitable at some point.  Asia was mostly lower and Europe mostly higher last night.  We'll see how those markets react to the tariffs tonight.  Tomorrow we'll brace for the markets reaction to the employment report.  The quiet summer is no more.

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