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Friday, August 02, 2019

The Dow lost another 98 points today on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We did come up off of the lows for the session.  The summation index is moving lower.  The jobs report came in where expected.  Foreign markets were lower and that carried over to the US.  We are now short term oversold on the S&P 500.  I'm going to say that any weakness on Monday can be bought for a short term bounce.  I'll be checking the SPY August calls over the weekend to see what's available.  This would strictly be a short term deal.  I do think that this decline is the beginning of something bigger to the downside.  The weekly technical indicators have now rolled over.  We haven't broken the uptrend line that comes in at around 2900 yet.  But I believe that in the coming weeks we will.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was good.  Gold was up $20 on the futures but it was more of a carryover from last night.  The US dollar fell as interest rates are now dropping.  The XAU and GDX were both lower on average volume.  I'm still favoring the longer term gold share calls if GDX makes it back to the 26 level.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX spiked again today but came back form the 20 level reached early on.  It looks like a short term top there and that would support gets some index calls on Monday.  However if that trade is taken it must be exited quickly if there is a profit.  Again, the medium term indicators for the major averages have now rolled over.  The trend is now down until proven otherwise.  However there will be chances for counter trend trades and Monday may very well give us one.  Another reason to try the calls on Monday was that this decline did not have terrible breadth with it.  We did not see the usual 3 or 4 to 1 declines on the down days.  So we haven't seen the broad decline yet but it is probably coming down the road.  Those are my best guesses at the moment.  Gold looks to be supported here with all the uncertainty, especially if the US dollar keeps dropping along with interest rates.  No god days of summer here.  Europe and Asia had significant drops to end the week.  The fact that the US didn't collapse is a short term positive.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend.  it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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