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Tuesday, August 13, 2019

The Dow soared 372 points today on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving lower.  Tariffs on China will now be delayed three months for some items and the market took off.  Headline risk.  I cannot stress that enough as my profitable SPY August puts turned into a loss in minutes as the market rallied this morning.  They are now solidly in the red but I held onto them because we are getting some Chinese data overnight that could send things back down in a hurry if it's negative.  Otherwise the trade that would have been a winner will be a loser due to the environment that we're faced with.  No technical analysis can save you from the latest press release, quote or tweet.  The short term technical indicators have turned back up again and the volume today was pretty good.  Also on the weekly S&P 500 chart, the up trend line form last December is still intact.  But we'll have to wait and see how the week finishes.  GE was up 1/3 and the volume was good.  Gold fell almost $10 on the futures with the good trade news.  The US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU shed 1 2/3, while GDX lost 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  The short term indicators have rolled over here so perhaps it's time for the gold shares and gold to take a rest.  Now that hasn't happened the previous times things have rolled over so we'll have to wait and see.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as a winning trade has turned into a loser yet again.  Of course we can't predict when news will occur but lately it seems that every other week there's something coming out of left field.  Now you could say that if it helps your trade, what's the problem?  You wouldn't have any issue with that, right?  Well actually when you're trading using technical analysis and the indicators, it is a problem.  Because if things change on a dime each day, you can throw your analysis out the window.  Volatility both ways has spiked and that's a tough trading backdrop to try and make money.  But what can you do?  You've just got to keep going.  Three days left in the August option cycle.  I'll probably take the loss on this trade tomorrow.  From there the September options have an extra week on them so the premiums will be high.  I'd like to say that I'll wait for the next signal but I'm not so sure.  Perhaps the gold shares will finally get oversold for me.  Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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