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Wednesday, August 07, 2019

It was a one day reversal to the upside for most indices but not the Dow as it lost 22 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  The Dow did finish over 500 points up from the low of the session.  I'm not sure if we are actually putting in a bottom here or if this is a fake out before we head lower.  The short term technical indicators remain oversold but have turned back up.  If we continue higher from here, I'll look to try the SPY August puts.  If we fall back again, I'll try the calls if we get to the 2750 level on the S&P 500.  Running out of time in the August option cycle but I do feel that a decent trade is out there.  GE was off another 1/8 and the volume remains good.  Gold soared $30 on the futures and we've made it to the $1500 level in quite a hurry.  Obviously gold was the place to be.  That's a trade that I'll regret missing for a while.  The US dollar was little changed on the day again.  The XAU rose 1 3/4, while GDX gained 5/8.  Volume was heavy.  GDX made it to 30 today and we have resistance pegged at 31.  The gold shares haven't moved up as much as gold lately and that could be a sign that this run is losing steam.  You cannot argue with price and volume though.  If the gold shares do ever get oversold again, a call trade will probably be worth it as players who missed out will be eager to jump aboard.  Keep in mind though that GDX has risen almost 50% in just two months.  That is not sustainable.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX looks like it wants to move lower here and that would be a plus for stocks.  We are still above 16 and that can be dangerous if we remain above that level.  The short term indicators here remain overbought but have rolled over.  One idea could be to purchase some August SPY puts on a trip down to the 16 level.  There are trades out there, it is just a matter of what is going to set up for us in the coming sessions.  But the risk is still high and just a headline away from a big move in either direction.  I still think we may be able to get something done before next weeks expiration.  We'll see.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

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