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Tuesday, August 06, 2019

We got the snap back today as the Dow gained 311 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues lower.  A day off from the trade war as the market recovered from yesterdays debacle.  That doesn't mean that the decline is over but at least we got a day of rest there.  We are at least attempting to reign in the decline here but we won't know if it's successful until we finish off the week.  It's only Tuesday.  The damage has been done though and I would not trust any ensuing rallies from here.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was good.  Gold continues to rise, with the futures up around $8.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  We're still overbought and staying that way for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm trying to figure out what to do here but I assume that we'll eventually head lower.  The VIX headed back down today and the short term indicators here have rolled over.  That suggests that the near term downside is limited.  I still may try the SPY August calls in the coming days if it sets up right.  However we all know the market rarely cooperates with our best laid plans.  Not to mention that we're still at the risk of the latest headline form the US or China.  Those certainly haven't been positive lately.  8 days to go in the August option cycle and the risk is evident to all who bother to take a look.  I guess ideally I'd like to see some decline for the next couple of sessions that takes out the previous low.  That would potentially set up the SPY August calls for Friday and the beginning of next week.  We're pretty oversold here but also trading outside of the lower Bollinger bands.  So sideways is a possibility in the near term as well.  The trading is never easy.  Asia and Europe were both lower overnight with Asia taking the worst of it.  I'd expect some buying in Asia tonight, the Hang Seng has been down ten days in a row.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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