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Wednesday, July 10, 2019

The Dow added 76 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues to move higher.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow as we continue to plow higher.  Chairman Powell spoke to Congress today and practically guaranteed a rate cut at the end of the month.  So it looks like a run higher into the July expiration is what is in the cards.  No overhead resistance so we'll have to see how far it goes.  GE lost a nickel on light volume.  Gold rallied as the futures added almost twenty bucks.  The US dollar dropped.  The XAU was up almost two points while GDX gained over 1/2.  Volume was good.  It looks the consolidation here is over and we're about to make another run higher.  Need to get those longer term GDX calls as soon as possible now.  This has the look of a trade that will only be successful because the money flows into the gold shares have been very positive.  What it means is that a lot of players are in this trade and will support higher prices going forward.  It looks like September is the month that they've chosen to complete the run up.  That's what the open interest in the options is telling me.  They're not going to announce it, you just have to pay attention on your own.  A drop back to 24.5 would be a gift and I don't think that's going to happen.  The technical indicators remain overbought but that means nothing in rallies like this.  You'll know it's over when you see gold on the news at night and how much it has gone up.  That will be what the smart money needs to dump what they've got to the latecomers.  Should be in September.  Mentally I'm all over the place with health issues at the forefront.  But the market doesn't care.  I do say that a lot but it's important that you know and deal with the truth.  Money is moving around and being made and lost by the players.  It doesn't matter who you are or how much you've got.  The game itself is bigger than that.  So your personal issues, health, etc. don't affect the prices of the markets.  At this point it appears the Fed is going to continue to flood the market with cheap money which will keep the rally going.  The decline will come when that stops.  Perhaps earnings won't pan out in the near term but that remains to be seen.  The technical indicators remain overbought on the S&P but in rallies they stay that way.  The NASDAQ hit a new all time high today.  The summer rally lives on.  Asia was mixed and Europe a bit lower in last nights trade.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

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