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Tuesday, July 23, 2019

Not a quiet summer day today as the Dow climbed 177 points on average volume.  the advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still trending sideways.  Good earnings were the reason given today for the advance.  No new all time highs today but if this keeps up there will be.  It seems that my idea for the SPY August puts is either wrong or premature.  The short term technical indicators have turned back up so perhaps todays gains will have legs.  GE was up 3/8 on heavy volume.  Gold took a breather and dropped $8.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on above average volume.  There is a potential negative divergence for the gold shares on the daily RSI indicator.  If it pans out it may give us the opportunity to try the longer term gold share calls in a couple of weeks.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is back below 13 as it appears whatever selling that we saw last week has run its course.  Earnings seem to be the driver now as the US/China trade talks have faded into the background.  Another week before the Fed announcement so there's time for a rally to perhaps develop from todays rise.  I'm still considering the SPY August puts but I'll be on hold for now.  It now appears like yesterday was the time for the calls there.  But things can and do turn on a dime in this game.  The gold shares seem to be holding up better than the precious metal here and that's a plus for the bulls.  I'd keep an eye on the US dollar here though because a move above 98 will put this gold rally in doubt.  That's a guess on my part but something to watch in my humble opinion.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight as money seems to be finding its way back into stocks around the globe.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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