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Friday, July 19, 2019

It was a one day reversal back to the downside today as the Dow fell 68 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  It was a down week for stocks but the short term indicators remain overbought.  GE was off a couple cents and the volume was light.  Gold gave back what it gained yesterday.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume.  The gold shares still held up well despite a $20 loss in the precious metal.  I still like the longer term calls here if we ever get a short term oversold reading.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Waiting of the Fed and that is still a week and a half away.  Even with that, the announcement will come out and then what?  Could all the good news already be baked into the stock market leaving nobody left to buy?  It's a possibility in my mind.  August has been known to not be so kind to the stock market.  For now I suppose it will be just wait and see.  We're rolling into the August option cycle, so premiums will be inflated.  It doesn't look like the gold shares are going to give me a chance to get in there.  I'll remain on the sidelines hoping to get in but if we don't get oversold on a short term basis I probably won't try it.  We've gone straight up 40% the past couple of months for GDX and that is not sustainable.  I'll be looking things over this weekend as usual but I'm probably just going to wait for the Fed at the end of the month.  It is summertime.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest. 

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