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Monday, July 29, 2019

Another mixed bag to begin the week as the Dow rose 28 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were just about even.  The summation index is trending sideways.  Waiting on the Fed and that will be out of the way on Wednesday.  The US and China will start trade talks again tomorrow.  That's always a wild card but perhaps the market has grown weary of it.  Jobs report due on Friday so this won't be the typical quiet summer week.  I'm not sure what to do here so I'll wait for the Fed and go from there.  We are still short term overbought for the major stock indices.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Gold rose $7 and the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU added 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was good.  Unless we see some weakness in GDX this week I most likely will not get a chance to try the longer term gold share calls.  Money continues to pour into these stocks and that cannot be ignored.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX picked up a bit today and the indicators have turned higher there.  Whether or not this precedes some volatility remains to be seen but it cannot be ruled out.  I'd still like to try some SPY August puts but don't have the guts at the moment.  My guess is that the drop in rates due on Wednesday may already be in the market.  The reaction then may not be as positive as one would expect.  That's my guess at the moment.  Of course there's also plenty of earnings out this week to drive the individual issues.  I'm going to try and remain patient.  The best signal right now for the S&P is more of a sell than a buy.  GDX acts like it wants to go higher here but I really need to wait for a decent set up.  But it may not appear.  Europe and Asia were mixed to start the trading week.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

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