Still in a sideways consolidation as the Dow fell 42 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We sold off early again and tried to come back.  That has been the pattern here lately.  No real news out of the ECB meeting today.  There isn't much to trade on.  I'm still going to be a believer in higher prices into the end of next week.  The positive expiration week bias should be in effect.  But anything can and will happen in this game.  GE was up a touch on average volume.  The up trend line from the beginning of the year remains intact.  I'm still waiting for the $23 level for now.  Gold bounced around today and the futures finished the session off $7.  The US dollar had a strong day and has had a very good week.  This doesn't bode well for gold.  The XAU was up 1/4.  ABX and GG were flat on the trading day, while NEM rose 1/4.  Volume was light to average.  My February ABX calls are almost worthless as this trade was a loser from the beginning.  I obviously should have cut the loss earlier.  But mistakes are part of trading.  The ability to move on is a must.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I thought the stock indices were on the verge of breaking out of the consolidation but it didn't happen today.  I still feel we are going to break to the upside.  I could be wrong.  Gold remains dead money.  My ABX calls will most likely be total loss.  Fortunately there was not a lot of money in that trade.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight and see how the week finishes up tomorrow. 

The Dow finished the day with a gain of 7 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We began the day with a good drop but managed to finish the session in the black.  That is a positive one day reversal.  We'll see if we get any follow through tomorrow.  Declines are being bought and that was the expected near term outlook.  The summation index has started to move sideways.  I'd still be looking for higher prices into the February option expiration.  GE was off a dime on average volume.  Sideways here as well.  I'm believing that it's a consolidation before we move to $23 here.  I could be wrong.  Gold was up $5 on the futures even with a stronger US dollar.  The XAU was up a point.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume.  Obviously, there is no interest at the moment in the gold shares.  My February ABX calls are losers and probably need to be sold this week before they expire worthless.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  I'm looking for another leg up on this extended stock index rally.  We are just about ready to break out higher in my opinion.  We've been moving sideways for about 8 days now.  Gold and the gold shares continue to disappoint.  That story remains the same.  We've got the ECB meeting in Europe tomorrow and that could be the catalyst for the next market move.  We'll keep an eye on that and see where it takes us.   

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 99 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive.  I'm guessing this is going to be a sideways range before we once again move higher but that's just a guess as usual.  No technical reason for yesterdays decline or todays advance.  Momentum has stalled to the upside here for now.  New all time highs were set recently in some stock indices, so I'm assuming that the Dow will eventually follow here.  We're only a couple of hundred points away.  Declines should continue to be bought if my hypothesis is correct.  GE was up 1/4 on light volume.  The volume here was lacking and that is a near term concern.  Perhaps we will move sideways here before moving higher as well.  My February GE calls continue to show a profit.  Gold fell a bit today.  The futures were off 3 bucks.  The US dollar didn't do much today.  The XAU was off a touch.  ABX, GG and NEM moved fractionally one way or the other on light volume.  Still no love for the gold shares.  My February ABX calls are still solidly in the red and most likely will be the first losing trade of the year.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A volatile start to the week for the stock indexes.  Not a lot of economic data out this week.  There is a meeting in Europe later this week that could influence prices.  The ECB meeting may also affect the price of gold depending on what comes out of it.  I suppose I will wait for that before I sell the ABX calls at a loss.  The earnings for ABX are due out next Thursday but I don't even think a good number there will save this trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The first triple digit down day of 2013 today as the Dow fell 129 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index back down.  Sideways to lower should be in the near future for the stock indices.  I don't think this is the start of any type of protracted move down but I certainly don't know for sure.  I would expect buyers to show up at some point before long.  The multi-week up trend line from November is still intact.  GE was off 1/3 on average volume.  My GE February calls are still showing a profit.  GE is moving sideways and as long as it holds above $22.20, I think those calls will be OK.  But I could be wrong and often am.  Gold found some buyers today on the overall stock market decline.  The precious metal futures rose 5 bucks despite strength in the US dollar.  The XAU was up 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains.  The volume was average with the exception of ABX where it was heavy.  My February ABX calls are still solidly in the red with virtually no chance for success.  I really should dump them this week, since this trade is a loser and has only 9 days left to go.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The daily S&P 500 candlestick chart looks pretty bearish after todays action.  We'll have to see if there is any follow through to the downside tomorrow.  The market is long overdue to take a breather.  However is usually takes a bit of time to build some sort of top and we haven't seen that yet.  Gold is still dead money but it hasn't broken down through the 200 day moving average yet.  It also hasn't been able to get through the 50 day moving average to the upside yet either.  Perhaps which one breaks first will give us a clue as to the near term direction there.  The gold stocks remain lackluster.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas market action tonight and take it from there. 

The momentum run continues as the Dow soared 149 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The employment report was the catalyst but the numbers were really nothing special.  It was an excuse to move things higher in my opinion.  But it doesn't matter what I think.  The market goes where it wants and there is nothing to stop this rally here.  The summation index should be back to the upside with todays action.  If what we saw in the stock indices was a pause this week, it certainly wasn't much of one.  So we'll see how much higher we can go.  GE was up 1/3 on average volume.  I'm still holding my February GE calls.  Perhaps I will wait for GE to reach $23.  Something to think about this weekend.  Even gold went up today.  The futures were higher by $8 as the US dollar lost some ground but the dollar finished well off of the lows for the day.  The XAU gained 2 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on good to average volume.  My February ABX calls remain mired in the red.  2 weeks left there and it would take a minor miracle for this trade to turn positive.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The employment report has come and gone.  It is still up, up and away for the stock indexes as money continues to flow into equities.  The trend is higher until we get some kind of turnaround.  You cannot fight price.  The market can stay overbought for quite a while when we get this type of run.  I'm still thinking that we'll remain up into the February option expiration.  Gold remains the a laggard here.  As I've said before, even good news can't get a rally going there.  Eventually there will be a move higher but I've been looking for that for months.  Dead money.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to come up with a game plan for next week.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The Dow dropped 50 points today on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive though.  Simply waiting for tomorrows employment numbers.  This is the first time we've had 2 days in a row down since the beginning of the month.  Still overbought on the stock indices so we'll need to see some more downside before another run higher or at least some sideways price movement.  We will have to see what the numbers are tomorrow and the markets reaction to them.  GE was flat on the day after being higher.  Volume was average.  My February GE calls are still positive but have lost some value.  I will probably dump them sooner rather than later.  Gold fell back today after yesterdays gains.  The precious metal futures lost $20.  The US dollar was a bit weaker as well.  The XAU was off 1 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses again on average volume.  My February ABX calls are almost worthless.  I doubt even the earnings report in a couple weeks can save this trade.  It was wrong from the start and I should have simply bailed out of the position the day after I bought it.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  How much will tomorrows numbers matter?  Probably just a day or so.  This is a momentum rally and I would expect after we take a breather, the prices will head back higher.  Most likely moving up into the February option expiration.  After that, perhaps things will change.  Gold remains dead money.  Even bullish news doesn't do much except for a one day rally.  The gold shares have gotten pummeled.  How much lower can they go?  We'll get some rest tonight and it's on to the jobs number to wrap up the week.

Really, the market goes down too?  The Dow fell 44 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative.  GDP was weaker than expected and there was no new news from the Fed.  The stock indexes have been overbought for weeks.  Perhaps now we will see some decline/consolidation.  It is way overdue.  One day doesn't make a trend though.  We've still got to get through the employment report on Friday.  My thinking at the moment is that any decline will be bought.  Todays action may stop the climb of the summation index and that is something to keep an eye on.  GE fell 1/4 on light volume.  Perhaps $23 is not in the near future as I had thought.  My February GE calls are still in the black but by not as much.  I may have to consider getting rid of them if we get another run to $22.50.  The daily candlestick chart doesn't look so bullish after todays action.  Gold had a strong session, up $18 on the futures.  The US dollar was weaker.  The inverse relationship between the dollar and gold is back on track.  The gold shares continue to disappoint as the XAU fell 3/4.  It seems that nothing can get the gold shares moving to the upside.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on good volume.  My February ABX calls are still very much in the red.  It appears that this trade will be a loser, barring an unforeseen spike in ABX.  2 days and 2 weeks left in the February option cycle.  The earnings for ABX are due the Thursday of expiration week.  I don't think I'll still be in the trade at that point but you never know.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Some weakness today in the stock indices but the rally still seems intact.  No trend lines have been violated and really, it is only one day of decline.  We will have to see how the rest of the week plays out.  There is no love for the gold shares as they continue to drift lower despite higher gold prices.  I have no idea when that will change.  The Gold/XAU ratio has been deep in the buy zone for weeks on end.  It just doesn't seem to work anymore.  It has certainly cost me money.  Overall I think tomorrow will be a holding pattern in the various marketplaces as we await the employment report.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight sessions and go from there.

Higher and higher we go as the Dow gained 72 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  What more can I say?  The market doesn't go down anymore.  But we all know better than that.  The summation index continues higher.  GDP out tomorrow and the Fed statement.  That should get things moving perhaps.  It has been a great momentum run and there are no signs of it stopping at this point.  But it will eventually.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was light.  My February GE calls remain in the black.  I would still like to wait until GE hits $23 to cash out on this trade.  But nobody cab predict the future.  GE remains overbought.  Gold actually went up today.  The futures rose 7 bucks on a weaker US dollar.  The XAU was higher by 2 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on good volume.  Could this finally be the bottom for the gold shares?  I certainly don't know but it could be the snap back attempt after the recent drop.  My February ABX calls are still solidly in the red.  This is a cut the loss trade now unless we see some big turnaround this week.  Doubtful.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices remain very overbought yet continue to move up.  You cannot fight price.  I have no idea how long this can last but it has certainly lasted longer than I expected.  Perhaps tomorrows data or the Friday jobs report will be the catalyst for a breather.  Gold is once again trying to hold on at its 200 day moving average at $1660.  We'll see.  A weak GDP plus an accommodating Fed should be positives for gold tomorrow if that is indeed the case.  We'll watch what happens overseas tonight and go from there.

A slight move lower today as the Dow fell 12 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The stock indices are overdue for a pause or decline here but we are probably in a waiting pattern until the Fed announcement on Wednesday.  No reason to think the recent momentum rally is over.  We're still overbought on both a short and medium term basis.  I am still thinking that it is possible to see some volatility this week since it has been quiet for some time now.  We'll see.  GE was up almost 1/4 and the volume was good.  My February GE calls are in the black as GE broke out and continues higher.  I probably should have bought more contracts but hindsight is usually never wrong.  In fact you could probably buy those same calls now and still show a profit before expiration.  I'm going to try and hold on until GE reaches $23.  Gold fell again today, off about $4 on the futures.  The US dollar didn't do much today.  The XAU dropped another 1 2/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light to average volume.  My February ABX calls are negative and have lost over 1/2 of their value.  I'll wait for the Fed announcement and go from there on this trade.  This was a loser from the start and I probably should have taken the loss early and been done with it.  We broke out of the consolidation to the downside and getting the calls there was a mistake.  I'll look for a snap back to the breakout to dump this trade for a loss.  May or may not happen.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The markets are extended and have been for at least a couple of weeks.  I'm not going to guess when it will end because I haven't been able to yet.  So enjoy the ride.  Gold is going nowhere and the gold stocks have tanked.  My only hope for the ABX trade at this point is some type of rally off of the Fed announcement, followed by a weak jobs report.  Hope has no place in trading.  Tomorrow should be more of the same for the markets as we wait for the Fed.    

The climb continues as the Dow gained 70 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  Nothing technically has changed.  Still overbought all the way around and staying there.  It is the energizer bunny rally, it just keeps going and going.  Nothing to do but enjoy the ride.  We do know it can go on longer than most would expect.  We also know that it won't last forever.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  Overbought here as well.  My GE February calls are solidly in the black.  I'll be holding onto them for a while, with 3 weeks left in this option cycle.  The only thing besides Apple that isn't going up is gold.  The precious metal futures fell another $13 today despite weakness in the US dollar.  This usual inverse relationship between the dollar and gold hasn't taken place for weeks.  Perhaps that was a sign to simply stay away from trying to trade gold here.  The XAU fell 4 points and was crushed on the week.  ABX off 1/2, GG down 3/4 and NEM dropped 2/3.  Volume was good to the downside.  My February ABX calls are solidly in the red.  This trade is going to be a loser and it is in the cut the loss mode already.  ABX is oversold at this point so I'll expect a bounce at some point next week.  That may or may not happen.  Gold remains dead money.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Perhaps some volatility will return next week as there is a plethora of economic data to decipher.  And a  Fed meeting.  The trend remains up though and it would take a lot to change that.  The stock indices haven't seen any measurable decline so far this year.  Gold itself needs to hold the $1650 level of support, which is just below the 200 day moving average.  The gold shares have already broken down so that may not be a good sign.  A reversal next week would be the only way to salvage the current ABX trade but that is just wishful thinking on my part.  There is no place for wishes in trading.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow continued higher yet again today but it was a mixed market to be sure.  The most watched index gained 46 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The S&P 500 was unchanged on the day and the NASDAQ was lower.  Still both short and medium term overbought and I'm still expecting some sort of weakness or consolidation for the stock indices at this point.  Hasn't happened yet.  The summation index remains in a solid uptrend.  GE gained about a dime on OK volume.  My GE February calls are slightly in the black.  GE probably needs to digest its recent gains here and a sideways channel would not be unexpected.  I'm looking for GE to reach the $23 level before February expiration.  That's my guess at the moment.  Gold took a hit today as the futures lost $16.  The US dollar was barely higher today.  The XAU dropped 5 points.  The gold shares have broken their channel to the downside today.  ABX and NEM both fell 3/4, while GG shed a buck.  Volume was good.  I adjusted down the price for the open order for the February ABX calls and it was filled this morning.  It is already in the red and it already appears that this trade will be a loser unless we see a reversal tomorrow.  That doesn't look very likely.  Yesterdays bearish engulfing patterns on many of the gold share stocks signaled more weakness to come.  In retrospect, I simply should have canceled the ABX call order.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indexes continue to defy gravity and that usually doesn't end well.  You cannot fight the trend here though.  I'd expect a quiet end to the week tomorrow but that's a guess as usual.  Gold has lost its luster and continues to be dead money despite the recent $50 move to the upside.  The gold shares are leading the way down here and that is not bullish going forward.  I'll probably be holding on to the February ABX calls into next weeks Fed meeting though.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets overnight and take it from there.    

It's the rally that never ends as the Dow gained 67 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative though, so perhaps we'll finally see some decline tomorrow.  Or not.  The summation index continues higher.  Very oversold both short and medium term.  This condition cannot last indefinitely.  If we do see any selling though, I believe that buyers will step up rather quickly.  It is that kind of market at the moment.  GE was off a few cents after being off as much as 1/4.  My order for the February GE calls was filled.  It is about at break even.  My thinking is that the price action here in GE is the snap back to the breakout.  I may be early though.  Still three weeks left in the February option cycle.  Gold was off $6 today on the futures as the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU however dropped 4 1/3.  The gold shares continue to under perform here.  I may have to reconsider my order for the February ABX calls.  ABX off 3/4, GG down a buck and NEM shed 7/8.  Volume was average.  These issues are trying to break through their 50 day moving averages to the upside but are failing once again.  Gold itself is being turned back by the 50 day as well.  I still have in the open order for the February ABX calls but I may have to adjust or cancel it tonight.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A rally today but the breadth did not confirm.  So perhaps we'll get some weakness tomorrow.  GE has pulled back a bit on lighter volume.  I still think getting the calls here would be a good idea.  We'll see.  The gold shares had a very weak showing today.  If there is follow through tomorrow I may have to cancel the ABX call order.  Or at the very least adjust the price that I'm willing to pay for the calls.  It is something to ponder this evening.  We'll see what happens tomorrow.  

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 62 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  Overbought and staying there.  It seems that even the slightest decline finds buyers these days.  I'm not sure how long this can last but you cannot fight the trend.  I would expect to see some weakness here but I've expected that more than once this year and it hasn't happened.  The summation index continues to the upside as well.  The momentum rally is intact for now.  GE lost a nickel on good volume.  I'm leaving in my open order for the February GE calls.  Still waiting for the snap back from breaking above the declining tops line from October.  If and when that occurs, then the order will probably be filled.  Gold is in rally mode as well.  The futures gained $6 as the US dollar was lower today.  The XAU followed the market, higher by 2 7/8.  ABX and NEM up 3/4,  and GG gained 1 1/8.  The volume was good to average.  I'm also leaving in the open order for the February ABX calls as well.  The gold shares have been moving sideways for about 3 months.  The breakout should be a pretty good move once it gets started.  The question is, which way?  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices have been going practically straight up since 2013 began.  How much longer can this last?  I don't know.  Not a lot of economic data out this week.  Money continues to flow into stocks.  Gold has rallied back to the 50 day moving average.  That could provide some near term resistance.  We'll keep an eye on overseas markets overnight and go from there.          

Continuing higher for expiration Friday as the Dow gained 53 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  We're still overbought and still moving higher.  My guess is that declines will be bought.  There is nothing to stop the rally at this point.  I do however expect some weakness early next week as we do need a pause.  That would be a chance to get some calls as the uptrend continues.  GE reported earnings today and the market liked what it heard.  The stock rose 3/4 on extremely heavy volume.  My GE calls turned a 125% profit but it could have been much better as I sold early in the morning at the worst possible time.  The trading is never easy.  I could have done another 75% to 80% if I would have held on longer.  Doesn't matter now.  We have a valid break out through the downtrend line on the daily charts.  The next technical expectation would be a snap back towards that line before moving higher.  I'll probably try the February GE calls here on the snap back if it occurs.  Gold was off 4 bucks on the futures as the US dollar had a strong session.  Once again we should have been much worse on gold for the day with such dollar strength.  The inverse correlation between these two just isn't happening now.  The XAU was off a fraction.  ABX and GG were little changed while NEM gained 1/2.  Volume was light.  I am leaving in the open order for the February ABX calls however I adjusted the price lower.  I'll have to reconsider this trade over the weekend because gold still continues to be dead money even with this weeks $20 gain.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as the GE trade was a winner but the lousy exit leaves me with mixed feelings.  On the one hand it starts the year off right with a winner.  However since the gains should have been much more, it leaves a lot to be desired.  My trading is always a work in progress.  The stock indices continue to the upside and there seems to be nothing coming up to derail the party.  We'll see if we can continue the bash next week.  Gold had a good week but the gold shares were actually lower on the week.  Perhaps I should focus my energies elsewhere.  It will be another thing to ponder over the long weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A nice move higher today as the Dow gained 84 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  A day late from what I expected but that means nothing now.  We were up over 100 during the session.  Overbought, staying there and the summation index continues to the upside.  This won't last forever but we can enjoy it from the call side while it does.  Expiration tomorrow and anything can happen.  GE was up over 1/8 on heavy volume.  We were much higher but came off of the best levels of the day.  My GE calls are still in the black but that could change with the earnings out tomorrow morning.  We did break through the downtrend line that has been in place since October but fell right back down.  Tomorrows price action will determine the outcome of this trade.  Gold was higher again today, up $7 on the futures.  The US dollar was a bit lower today.  The XAU dropped 7/8.  ABX, GG and NEM once again had fractional moves one way or the other on average volume.  My open order for the February ABX calls was almost filled this morning.  Perhaps this trade will get done next week.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The trend remains up and the small stocks are leading the way and that is bullish.  One day left in the trading week before a long holiday weekend.  The GE trade will be completed tomorrow.  Earnings will determine the outcome.  It could go either way.  Gold has had a nice week so far but the gold shares have not participated.  That usually isn't bullish going forward.  I'm leaving in the open order for the February ABX calls regardless.  The gold shares remain oversold and that condition won't last forever.  On to expiration Friday.     

I expected a decent move to the upside today and we certainly didn't get it.  The Dow fell 23 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  It was a mixed market to be sure, with the NASDAQ moving slightly higher.  The stock indices have been milling around since the huge fiscal cliff spike to the upside.  The summation index continues higher but price is lagging here.  The technicals remain overbought.  I'm still looking for higher prices ahead but not with the same conviction that I had before today.  When the market doesn't do what you expect, then something else is going on that you obviously don't know about.  GE fell a touch on average volume.  Looks like this GE trade will depend on the earnings and that is always just a 50/50 proposition.  The technicals here are mid-range, so just about anything can happen.  Gold was little changed on the futures and the same for the US dollar.  The XAU lost 1 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM were all lower by 1/3 or so on light volume.  I'm still leaving in the open order for some February ABX calls.  The technicals for the gold shares remain more oversold than overbought.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  2 days remain in the January option cycle and I decided not to try the OEX calls here.  I expected market strength today and we didn't get any.  So I'm not exactly sure now where we go from here.  GE is simply an earnings play now.  Not exactly my favorite kind of trade.  Gold remains dead money but I'll try the ABX calls if my price is hit for the options.  Hasn't happened yet.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A day similar to yesterday as we sold off early and then made it all the way back.  The Dow gained 27 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  Still overbought and moving higher.  I would expect a decent move to the upside tomorrow, according to what I'm looking at.  The expiration week positive bias is just one of the reasons.  You never really know though, as the recent ascent has been on pretty light volume.  We'll see what happens.  It is probably too late for the January OEX calls.  GE didn't do much today and the volume was light.  The GE calls I have are still slightly in the black.  It looks like it will all depend on the earnings report due Friday.  However if we do have a good upside day tomorrow, perhaps GE can break through the downtrend line on the daily charts.  Wishful thinking perhaps.  Gold moved nicely higher again today, up $14 on the futures despite strength in the US dollar.  This relationship continues to baffle me as it has not acted in the normal pattern for some time now.  I do not know what it means going forward.  The XAU only rose 7/8.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other again.  The volume was nothing special.  I almost bought some February ABX calls but didn't.  I am leaving in the open order for the February ABX calls that I already have opened.  Once again I'll need to see some weakness in ABX for this order to be filled.  Didn't happen today.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market has the feel of wanting to go higher here and I'm in that camp for the short term.  But after this week, who knows?  Waiting on the GE earnings at this point.  Gold looks like it is going to hold its 200 day moving average here and that is usually bullish going forward.  However that doesn't mean that the gold shares are going to rally.  We've been moving sideways to lower in the gold shares since mid-November.  Gold has been dead money for quite a while.  I'm still willing to try the February ABX calls if we get some pullback though.  May just be another mistake.  Time will tell.  On to Wednesday. 

Running in place it seems as the Dow gained 18 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  Sold off early and then came back throughout the trading day.  The summation index continues to the upside.  I expected some weakness early this week and we may have seen it this morning.  I would expect a pretty good move to the upside within the next 2 days.  It is expiration week.  GE was flat on the day with light volume.  My January GE calls are still slightly positive.  It looks like I'll be holding them into the earnings report on Friday.  We still need to get through the downtrend line from last October.  Hasn't happened yet.  Gold rose $8 on the futures as the US dollar was flat today.  The XAU lost 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  I'm leaving in the open order for the ABX February calls.  I'll need to see some weakness in ABX for this order to be filled.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still overbought on the stock indices.  Regardless, my technical work shows that we will most likely see a pretty good upside move within the next couple of days.  I could be wrong.  ABX is stalling at its 50 day moving average.  A move above this line would be a positive sign.  4 days left in the January option cycle.  We'll keep an eye on what transpires overnight and go from there.   

A scant higher drift as the Dow gained 17 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  Just marking time here or so it seems.  We opened lower and spent the rest of the session getting back to break even.  I'm looking for weakness at the beginning of next week, followed by some type of move higher.  That's my guess for now.  With only a week to go in the January option cycle the risk obviously increases.  I still may try the OEX calls if conditions come up ideal.  They rarely do.  GE lost a few cents and the volume was average.  Still can't get through the down trend line on a daily basis.  If we do, my GE calls will be profitable.  If we don't, the opposite.  Earnings on expiration Friday.  Gold fell today, off $17 on the futures despite weakness in the US dollar.  This relationship continues to be dysfunctional.  I'm not sure what it means but it isn't bullish for gold.  At some point it will change but it has been a while.  The gold shares are outperforming gold itself here.  However in this environment that means they are just going down less.  The XAU dipped 1/4 today.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses.  The volume was light to average.  I replaced my open order for the February ABX calls with the original trade, moving to a lower strike price.  I may simply try and enter this position on Monday if we see some weakness.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices are overbought and staying there.  The summation index continues higher.  It's my belief that we'll hold up into the expiration and then we'll see what happens after that.  I'll probably hold the GE trade into the earnings report but that could change if GE rallies next week.  Gold continues to frustrate as it hovers along its 200 day moving average at $1660.  This has gone on for 3 weeks.  It will be decided which way we are going sooner or later.  I'm still inclined to try the gold share calls again.  That's it for this week.  Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

The Dow moved to a new high for the year as it gained 80 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive again.  I expected more consolidation before moving higher but that is not the case.  The summation index continues to the upside.  It looks like it is probably too late to try the OEX calls for January.  Unless we see a sharp pullback, I most likely will not attempt that trade.  We are on the way to being both short and medium term overbought on the stock indices but aren't there yet.  GE was up 1/4 on light volume.  My GE January calls are now slightly in the black.  If we can get through the down trend line that has been in effect since October on good volume, I'd expect GE to approach $22 in a hurry.  That line is around the 21.45 level.  I'm still likely to hold onto this trade into the earnings on expiration Friday, unless we run up before that report.  Gold had a good day as the US dollar got crushed.  Talk out of Europe sent the euro higher and the dollar lower.  The gold futures rose $22.  The XAU gained 3 3/4.  ABX up 7/8, GG higher by 1 1/2 and NEM up a buck.  Volume was average for the gold shares.  This could finally be the start of an extended move higher for the gold shares but it hasn't happened yet.  I canceled my open order for the February ABX calls and replaced it at a higher strike price since the premiums moved away from my previous order.  I may have to adjust as we move forward and I also may already be too late.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indexes continue higher and I expect that to be the case into next weeks expiration.  The over the counter issues lagged today, so maybe we will see some backing and filling in the next couple of days.  That's just a guess as usual.  Gold finally moved in tandem with weakness in the US dollar, so perhaps the normal inverse relationship will be back in play with these two.  A weaker dollar would also be supportive to higher equity prices as well.  We'll see how we close out the week tomorrow.   

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 61 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  I think that we are still in a consolidation mode until next week.  I would expect a bit more weakness moving forward before we see another leg up.  I'm still looking at getting some OEX January calls at the beginning of next week.  The summation index is moving higher.  GE was up a bit on light volume.  My GE January calls are about break even.  I'll be holding this trade into next week, perhaps all the way to the earnings report at the end of next week.  Gold was off $6 on the futures as the US dollar was higher today.  The XAU fell 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM moved fractionally one way or the other on what passes for average volume these days.  Still not much going on in the gold market.  I've left in the open order for the ABX February calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The markets are actually pretty quiet so far this week.  Not really a lot of movement and the VIX is very low.  Hopefully we aren't getting too complacent because that could eventually lead to volatility.  I'm sticking with the game plan in place for now.  Hold the GE calls and attempt some OEX calls early next week.  I'm leaving the gold trade order out there in case we see some more weakness in ABX.  That potential trade also has a lot more time on it if filled.  We'll see what Thursdays trading brings.

Another loser today as the Dow fell 55 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  Weakness or sideways action is to be expected this week.  I'm sticking with that thesis for now.  I still think expiration week will be positive.  I'll be looking at the OEX January calls later this week or on Monday for purchase to be held into the end of expiration week.  The summation index is still heading up.  GE was off 1/4 on light volume.  It is trying to hold at the 50 day moving average.  My open order for the GE January calls was filled in the morning.  They are showing a slight loss.  8 days to go in the January option cycle.  I'll probably hold onto these calls until next week.  Earnings due on expiration Friday.  Gold rose $15 on the futures and the US dollar was up a bit as well.  The XAU only managed a gain of 1/3 though.  ABX off 5/8, GG higher by 7/8 and NEM up 1/2.  Volume was OK for the gold shares.  I still have the open order in for the February ABX calls.  It might get filled tomorrow if weakness persists in ABX.  I'm not exactly sure if this trade is worth doing since gold has been dead money for so long.  But I guess I'm willing to try it one more time.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I still think we are in a digestion period from the recent huge gains in the stock indices.  The rally has been led by the small cap stocks and that implies higher equity prices moving forward.  The first trade of the year has been filled with the January GE calls.  We'll see what happens.  Gold is trying to hold at its 200 day moving average at around $1660.  Whether or not it does will determine how any gold share trade does in the near future.  We'll keep an eye on the markets overnight and take it from there.

We started off the week with a whimper as the Dow fell 51 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  I would expect some decline this week or sideways at best.  We need to digest the recent huge gains in the stock indices.  I would look for higher prices in expiration week.  I am looking at getting some OEX calls for next week.  Perhaps later in this week.  There is not a lot of economic data out this week but it is the start of earnings season again.  GE was down a bit but closed off of its lows for the day.  I am looking at the GE January calls.  I did place an overnight order for the January GE 21 calls.  We'll need to see some decline for the order to be filled.  Earnings are due expiration Friday.  Gold was off just a couple of bucks despite a big drop in the US dollar.  The usual inverse relationship here hasn't materialized for the past few weeks.  It isn't a positive for gold in my opinion.  I am still looking to get long the gold shares though.  The XAU fell 2 1/3.  ABX and GG fell 1/2 and NEM dropped 7/8.  Volume was light.  I placed an open order for the February ABX 35 calls.  As with the GE open order, ABX will need to see some decline for this order to be filled.  The gold shares are getting short term oversold once again.  This is a trade that I have tried numerous times in the preceding months.  It hasn't worked yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I would expect the stock indexes to slosh around here this week.  I do not expect any dramatic moves one way or the other.  Obviously the trend is up but we are extended in the McClellan oscillator.  I'll be looking to purchase some January OEX calls later this week.  Nobody likes gold for now and sometimes that is when you have to like it.  I'll ponder this idea tonight.  It is entirely possible that I should simply let gold do what it does and concentrate my energy elsewhere.  We'll see what happens in the foreign markets and go from there.     

A good end to the first week of trading in 2013 for the bulls as the Dow gained 43 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  The employment report came in as expected and it really wasn't much of a market mover.  The stock indices are short term overbought but they could stay that way.  I think any declines will be bought here.  You cannot argue with price and the market is moving higher.  I still think that we will see more gains heading into the option expiration in 2 weeks.  GE was up a bit and the volume was light.  I would like to see more participation here from GE but it isn't happening yet.  If we can break through the declining tops line at around $21.50, we should see GE move up.  I am still considering the January calls here.  Gold had a roller coaster type of session.  The futures closed down $25 and they were lower than that during the morning.  But gold made a comeback in the after hours trading.  I'm not sure what to make of todays action.  The US dollar opened higher but closed well off of the highs for the day.  The XAU was actually up 1/3 as the gold shares performed pretty good considering the drop in gold.  This is a positive for the gold shares.  ABX, GG and NEM all had slight fractional gains on average volume.  I'm not exactly sure what to do with the gold shares here.  The are still medium term oversold and due for some type of rally.  The daily technicals are more overbought than oversold though.  I'll probably be looking elsewhere for the next trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indexes are overbought.  I'll will look to get some calls next week perhaps if there is a pullback.  The Dow transports have broken out and it is up to the industrials to follow.  I may get some GE January calls next week.  The only caveat is that the earnings are due on expiration Friday.  We'll see.  Gold is acting volatile to start the year.  I would still like to get long there at some point.  Perhaps I'll move out to the February option cycle there.  Plenty to consider over the weekend.  For now it's the first Friday of the new year and time for a break.

Digesting the recent gains today as the Dow fell 21 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  After moving straight up around 500 points, some consolidation is to be expected.  A larger pull back isn't expected for now.  But that doesn't mean it won't happen.  The Fed minutes released today implies the soft money policy might end sooner rather than later.  That would be a negative going forward.  However we are in a very positive time frame calendar wise.  My feeling is that we will stay with a positive bias into the January option expiration.  We'll see what happens with the employment report tomorrow.  GE was off 1/4 on good volume.  GE is not acting well here and has been stopped at its declining tops line that began in October.  I am considering the January GE calls here though.  I could be wrong.  Gold had a tough day as the futures fell $14 and another $10 in the aftermarket.  The US dollar rallied.  The news of the Fed minutes pushed gold down and the dollar up.  The gold/dollar inverse relationship is back in place.  The XAU fell 6 1/3.  ABX down a buck, GG lost almost 2 and NEM slipped 1 1/4.  Volume was average.  My idea for the January ABX calls was wrong.  Of course things could turn around tomorrow with a weak employment report but I'm inclined to look elsewhere for the next trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got the huge rally after the tax deal.  Now it will be important to see what happens from here.  The technicals imply higher prices after a breather.  I might wait things out for a few days and then try the OEX calls for January.  Or not.  We'll see what the employment report brings.  Gold was weak today and I expected more money to flow into there due to the beginning of the new year.  I'm laying off any trades there for now.  We'll look for the foreign market reaction to the Fed minutes if there is one and move on to Fridays employment report. 

We had a huge rally to begin 2013 as the Dow gained 308 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 10 to 1 positive.  The tax deal is done and it is off to the races.  The small stocks are leading the way higher here, so it appears that this move higher could have legs.  It is too late for any stock index calls right now in my opinion.  The buy signal was a couple of days ago but the market opened up strong on Monday which rose the value of the calls.  Perhaps the next trade will be getting short when we get short term overbought.  The employment report is due on Friday.  Some stock indices are breaking out into new highs and we had some huge upside gaps today.  Expect higher prices going forward.  GE was up 1/3 on good volume.  Too late for the calls here as well in my opinion.  Gold moved higher today as well, gaining $13 on the futures.  The US dollar bounced around but ended the day little changed.  The XAU rose 2 7/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on average volume.  The gold shares are getting short term overbought.  I still might try the January calls though.  Money is flowing into all assets at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We have seen the expected rally following the resolution of the tax stand off in Washington.  Were we go from here is what matters next.  It looks like we are going to go higher regardless of the economic numbers.  We'll see how the rest of the week plays out.  Gold has found some buyers this week as well.  I'm not sure how long that will last but I might be willing to try a short term trade there.  The January ABX calls are still on my radar.  We should see the rally continue overseas tonight and tomorrow here as well. 

It was quite a final day for 2012 as the Dow rallied 166 points on better volume than we have seen lately.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive.  The tax deal is finally coming together but it hasn't been finalized as of yet.  Investors are front running the expected beginning of the year positive money flows.  I did want to get some January OEX calls but the premiums were so inflated that I stepped aside there.  Today stops the down trend for now but the volatility has definitely picked up.  We should rally when the markets reopen on Wednesday.  What happens after that is the main question.  GE had a huge move, up 55 cents on good volume.  We should be able to build on that going forward as well.  Gold was up as well.  The precious metal futures rose almost $20.  The US dollar was little changed on the day again.  The XAU gained 5 points.  ABX, GG and NEM were all up at least a buck on average volume.  I did place an order during the day for some January ABX calls again but it wasn't filled.  I believe that money will make its way into the gold shares at the beginning of next year as well.  I may try the ABX calls again on Wednesday if we get some weakness early.  We'll see.  I haven't done too well with this trade lately.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are getting the expected pop in the stock indexes with the resolution to the tax situation.  The over the counter stocks are moving even better to the upside and that is a positive going forward.  The stock indices were also short term oversold, so a move higher is no surprise.  Gold had a decent day but we will have to see if there is any follow through to the upside.  Gold has been dead money for quite a while.  I do think that I will try the January ABX calls again though.  It's a holiday tomorrow and perhaps the tax deal will be done by the open on Wednesday.  Most foreign markets are closed tonight as well.  So we'll take a day off and keep an eye on the news out of Washington.  A Happy and Prosperous Trading New Year to all. 

Another down day for the Dow as we did not build on yesterdays comeback.  It was important for the bulls to have some follow through to the upside today and we didn't get it.  These are very thinly traded markets in a holiday week.  The Dow fell 158 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  Still waiting on Washington to come up with a tax deal but it hasn't happened yet.  Might not happen before the end of the year deadline and not many expected that.  The stock indices are now short term oversold.  Any sign of a tax deal should spring some type of rally.  The OEX options are richly priced here though, with 3 weeks left in the January cycle.  GE fell 1/4 on light volume.  The 200 day moving average may provide some support at the $20.25 level.  Oversold short term here as well.  Gold fell $7 on the futures today as the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU dropped 1 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  The bollinger bands are converging on the daily charts for these gold stocks.  That usually implies a major move is about to occur.  Which way is the question.  I just might try the ABX January calls again if we get some decline next week.  The gold shares are getting short term oversold once again.  That hasn't led to any type of sustained rally for the past couple of months though.  Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The stock indices are in decline due to the uncertainty coming out of Washington.  Headline risk remains firmly in place.  The trouble is that this dilemma could be solved overnight.  That will have quite an impact on the markets and trading.  The risk level in the game right now is very high.  However with risk there also comes reward.  It is something to think about over the weekend.  Gold continues to languish and still appears to be dead money.  I'm thinking that some money could flow into the gold shares early next year due to there low prices.  But as usual I could be wrong and I was wrong quite a lot this year, especially with the gold shares.  My trading account for 2012 ended the year with a loss of 11%.  I have already began to regroup for next year, which begins next week.  We will have to keep our eyes peeled for the news out of Washington over the weekend.  The stock indexes are still being held hostage by the politicians.  There is some support for the S&P 500 at the 1390 level, which is the 200 day moving average.  We are already oversold and a break of that could take us back to 1350 rather quickly.  But any announcement of a deal should rocket the indices back to the upside.  The game is never easy.  But for now it's the last Friday afternoon in December.  Time for a break.

Lower again today but the market did make quite a comeback as the Dow fell 18 points on light volume.  We were off around 140 points during the session.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Still waiting on a tax deal in Washington.  Todays candlestick chart for the Dow could be a bullish hammer but we will have to wait and see what transpires in the next couple of trading days.  Some kind of deal will get done sooner or later.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was average.  Perhaps it's time to try the calls there.  I remain on the sidelines though.  Gold was up $3 on the futures and the US dollar rose slightly as well.  The XAU gained 7/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains or losses on OK volume.  Gold continues to look like dead money.  There is a lot of uncertainty in the marketplace right now and there is no flight to gold.  Perhaps that will change next year but for now gold remains an under performer.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Even though it is a holiday week, tomorrow could be important.  If we continue to rally it would be a positive sign on the charts.  If not, then we would probably be heading into an extended decline.  That is my best assessment at the moment.  There will be some kind of tax deal sooner or later.  The key I think will be how the market reacts after that.  Gold continues to disappoint on the upside but I am still looking at the gold share calls.  If we get a drop to the $1620 level on gold, that may take out the rest of sellers.  Just a guess as usual.  We'll monitor the news overnight and take it from there.

Holiday light trading is the theme as the Dow fell 24 points on half of a normal days volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  No Santa Claus rally so far this year with the troubles out of Washington.  The tax issue should be resolved within the next week.  We'll watch for the market reaction after that event.  Until then it is simply a wait and see environment.  I have no OEX trades in mind for now.  If we get short term oversold I may try the January calls.  GE was off just a touch again on very light volume.  Nothing doing there really.  A lot of companies are in a holding pattern.  Gold was up a buck and the US dollar fell just a bit.  The XAU gained 3/4.  ABX and GG were up 1/3, while NEM gained 7/8.  Volume was light.  The gold shares outperformed gold today.  However we are in such a lightly attended point in time, it's hard what to make of it.  Perhaps this is the start of the rally in the gold shares that I've been looking for.  But I have already tried and failed here so much that I probably will not try again here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just 3 trading days left this year.  The stock indexes are waiting on Washington.  We normally get a nice rally when the new year begins.  If we get a tax deal as well, it could be quite a bump up.  But that is just another guess.  Technically the stock indices are no longer short term overbought but they're not oversold yet either.  Gold is still trying to hang on at the 200 day moving average.  Expect more light volume trading tomorrow.

The markets closed early today in a holiday shortened session.  The Dow fell 51 points in a very thinly traded, light volume affair.  The advance/declines were negative.  It doesn't look like there will be any buyers until we get something positive out of Washington.  There will be some kind of tax deal sooner or later.  We'll watch for what the markets do after that for a better idea of where we're headed.  GE was off a touch on very light volume.  No trades there for now.  Gold and the US dollar were basically flat on the day.  The XAU was up 1/3.  ABX and GG had fractional gains, while NEM had a fractional loss.  The gold shares remain oversold.  I think we could see a decent rally there at any time.  However I have tried the gold share calls a few times lately and they simply have remained oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market remains hostage to the situation in Washington.  This will resolve itself eventually and probably pretty soon.  Until then the stock indices should be on hold or move lower.  Gold is trying to hold at its 200 day moving average.  We'll have tomorrow off and then back to it on Wednesday.  It should be a very light volume holiday week for the markets.

It's all about the headlines coming out of Washington at this point.  The Dow fell 120 points on expiration heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  No tax deal yet and the stock indices are now nervous.  I still think they will get something done by the new years deadline.  It is how the market reacts after that which is what you should be watching.  We're still overbought on the short term technicals.  GE was off a bit over 1/8 and the volume was very heavy again.  Getting oversold on a daily basis here but it's not all the way there yet.  I have no trades in mind here at the moment.  Gold bucked the trend and rose $14 on the futures even with a stronger US dollar.  An oversold bounce or the flight to safety?  I certainly don't know which it was.  The usual inverse relationship between the dollar and gold remains not to be in place.  It's been that way for a while and I don't know what to make of it.  The XAU was up 1/4 today.  ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM had a fractional gain.  The same results as yesterday.  Volume was very heavy.  I would like to try the calls on ABX again but it hasn't worked lately.  It is both short and medium term overbought.  That hasn't meant much lately though.  I'll ponder it over the weekend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Had some internet issues during the trading day and that is never a good thing.  Some of the stock indexes had gaps lower today and that isn't a positive sign for the bulls.  However in this headline driven atmosphere, and announcement of a tax deal could send us back to the upside in a hurry.  We'll find out in a matter of days.  It's a holiday week next week and that could skew things with the lack of volume.  Even with todays move higher, gold hasn't been acting well lately and we broke the support at $1680.  The gold shares are still oversold and have been for a while.  Yet there hasn't been any rally.  So we'll see.  I'll go over the charts this weekend and keep an eye out on the news from Washington.  For now it's a December evening and time for a break. 

The Dow gained 59 points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  One minute there is a tax deal and the next minute there isn't.  That is the type of environment we are in for now.  Eventually a deal will get done.  The question is what happens after that?  We're still overbought on the stock indices.  That hasn't seemed to matter lately.  The summation index continues higher and the trend remains up until further notice.  GE was up 1/4 on better than average volume.  I'm not sure that I'm going to try anything with GE right here.  Gold fell again as we have broken through support earlier this week.  The precious metal futures fell another 20 bucks today.  This, despite the US dollar moving lower yet again.  The XAU is outperforming the metal here but that means that it is dropping less, relatively.  It fell 7/8 today but there is a potential hammer or morning star on the daily candlestick chart.  ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM was actually up 1/3.  Volume was good for the gold shares.  Nobody wants gold at the moment.  Usually a good time to buy things is when nobody wants them.  But that is a longer term strategy.  For trading purposes gold broke support at $1680.  The next support is $1620 followed by around $1550.  The gold shares are oversold, remain oversold and have been a place to be short, not long.  As long as the relationship between the dollar and gold is inverse to what it should be, it probably isn't time to get long.  But my ideas and thinking haven't been working lately.  So consider that as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still at the mercy of headline risk in the stock market.  Money seems to be flowing into stocks regardless for now.  We've got the positive holiday bias coming up and the start of the new year as well.  Expiration Friday tomorrow and then we should be going into holiday mode for next week.  But we still have Washington and the tax deal to get through.  We'll see what happens tonight and what is announced before the weekend. 

A reversal of sorts today as the Dow fell 99 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  Headline risk is going to be the norm from now on until Washington sorts out the tax deal.  Today the news was negative and down we went.  The stock indices were short term overbought anyway, so some decline could be expected.  Some of the technicals, such as the trin, were and are very overbought.  Things can turn on a dime now as we head closer to the end of the year.  I'm still going to be looking for some type of Santa Claus rally next week.  GE fell 2/3 on very heavy volume.  This was a pretty big move for GE.  If GE is a harbinger of things to come, we could see a nasty decline in the overall market.  I would expect to see some support here at the $20 level if the fall continues.  Gold fell a couple of bucks on the futures as the US dollar finished the day little changed.  The XAU was off 1 2/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  I'm considering trading a basket of the gold shares, GDX, when I'm ready to try gold again.  Perhaps at the beginning of next year.  The gold shares remain oversold.  Mentally I'm doing OK, considering having to book yesterdays loss.  I should be done for this years trading with less than 2 weeks to go in 2012.  We are at the mercy of Washington even more so than usual until a tax deal is settled.  I do think some kind of agreement will be reached before the end of the year.  The market reaction will be key.  We will all have to be ready to trade off of that news when it happens.  Gold continues to languish as it is holding at the 200 day moving average.  A break of that level could take us down to $1620 in a hurry.  Hasn't happened yet.  We'll keep our eyes and ears open for the next sound bite out of Washington.

The rally continues as the Dow gained 115 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The up move has legs.  Overbought and staying there.  The summation index is now moving higher.  Whatever negative chart patterns we had last week have been negated.  The transports have broken out above some longer term resistance and that bodes well for the near future.  Closer to a tax deal in Washington has been the excuse for the move up.  You can't fight price action one way or the other.  GE fell 1/4 on heavy volume, bucking the trend.  There was some specific news on GE today that was considered bearish.  GE finished well off of its lows though.  Gold got clobbered today as it fell over $25 on the futures and broke the support level of $1680.  The US dollar was lower as well.  This relationship between the dollar and gold has been going on for a while now.  They are moving lower together and that is the inverse of what is usually suspected.  It isn't bullish for gold.  The XAU held up rather well considering.  It dropped 2 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses again on average volume.  I dumped the January ABX calls that I had for an 80% loss.  This trade was never in the black and it was one of the bigger losers of the year.  I added to it on lower prices and that is usually always a recipe for disaster.  This trade will also increase my trading loss for the year.  I'll tally the final numbers there before the end of the year.  Gold continues to be dead money here.  Even worse it is losing value.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the loss.  The stock indices are in rally mode.  It is expiration week and the usual positive bias is evident.  Throw in some good news out of Washington and we are heading higher.  Gold had a horrible day and we are at the 50 day moving average.  The precious metal will need to stop its decline here or things could get ugly.  I still do like the gold shares.  They are oversold on a short and medium term basis.  However my biggest losses in the past year have been there so I will probably be steering clear of them for a while.  Money is leaving both gold and the US dollar lately.  The flight to safety play is off for now.  I probably won't be making any more trades this year.  There are only 3 days left on the December option cycle and next week is a holiday week.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.  

A positive start to option expiration week as the Dow gained 100 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  This should send the summation index higher.  No technical reason for the rally.  The tax problem in Washington looks like it is almost being solved.  Of course that could change tomorrow but some kind of deal will be reached.  We will see if todays action has some legs.  GE was up 1/3.  Short term overbought here.  Gold and the US dollar both didn't do much today.  The XAU was up 1/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume.  Unless we get some type of rally in ABX, I will have to dump the January calls that I own at a loss.  That is the most likely outcome.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices continue higher and are getting short term overbought again.  We have a holiday week next week.  All of the major trading for the year will be done in the next 4 days.  Perhaps we will run things up into the expiration but that is just a guess.  Gold at around $1700 remains dead money and I don't see a catalyst in the near future.  We'll keep an eye on the action overseas and go from there.

Continuing lower as the Dow fell 35 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is flattening out here.  The weekly S&P 500 candlestick chart now has a potential evening star as well.  So the rally from mid-November could be in jeopardy.  The daily technicals on the stock indices have rolled over.  I'm sticking with a best case scenario of sideways for the market at this juncture.  We do have option expiration week coming up and that usually has a positive bias.  But until we get some clarity from Washington on the tax picture, whatever gains we do see from here will be muted.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was average.  No trades here for now.  Gold had a lackluster session even though the US dollar was lower once again.  The precious metal futures finished the day basically unchanged.  When gold cannot rally despite dollar weakness, it isn't a good sign for the bulls.  I certainly don't know why gold just can't catch a bid here with a bullish dollar backdrop.  The XAU was up a point today.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  My ABX January calls continue to languish in a losing position.  If I don't see some upwards movement in ABX next week, I'm going to have to dump them for another loss.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The over the counter stocks have been weaker in the past couple of days and that usually isn't a good sign moving forward.  We're still at the mercy of headline risk out of Washington.  The question is once we're done with that, then what?  We'll follow the technicals and let that guide us.  Gold continues to disappoint and it looks like there is no rally forthcoming.  It has all the signs at the moment of dead money.  When whatever you're trading can't rally on good news and bullish developments, then that trade is in trouble.  Of course things can turn on a dime sometimes but that is the exception to the rule.  I'll need to cut this ABX call trade loose next week most likely.  It's a Friday afternoon in December and time for a rest.

We lost some ground today as the Dow fell 75 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The overbought condition of the stock indices needs to be worked off and this is the beginning.  Whether or not it turns into a full on rout has yet to be determined.  I don't think that it will but what do I know?  The daily candlestick chart on the S&P 500 now looks bearish with the pattern of a white candle, followed by an evening star and a black candle.  So I think that near term we will probably be in a down to sideways pattern.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Still above the 50 day moving average here.  Gold fell $20 today on the futures as there was no follow through to the Feds action yesterday.  That isn't bullish.  The US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU reversed yesterdays positive action and was down 4 1/8.  ABX off 3/4, GG and NEM fell 1 1/4.  Volume was light to average.  My ABX January calls remain mired in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still plenty of talk out of Washington and no action.  We remain hostage to that situation but eventually it will clear.  Headline risk is still in place.  6 days to go in the December option cycle.  Gold continues to simply be dead money.  I thought after yesterday that perhaps we would get a multi-day rally but it was not to be.  I'm going to have to consider when to take the loss there unless there is a dramatic turn of events to the upside in gold.  We'll see what tomorrow brings to end up the week.   

A one day reversal to the downside for the Dow as we opened higher and closed lower on the Fed announcement.  The Dow lost 3 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The stock indices actually rallied after the Fed but then gave back all of the gains on the day.  The daily candlestick chart for the Dow now looks like an evening star, implying lower prices ahead.  That would not be out of the question since we are still very overbought both short and medium term now on the stock indexes.  I don't think it would be the beginning of a major decline but some backing and filling perhaps.  I could be wrong.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  We just got above the 50 day moving average here on the daily chart.  Gold managed to gain $8 on the futures but sold off a bit in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was lower again.  I would have expected gold to rally today off of the Fed but we didn't see much.  Gold also hasn't rallied with the weaker US dollar lately either.  These are not bullish signs for gold.  I do not know the cause.  The XAU managed a nice gain of 4 1/4 today though.  ABX and GG both gained over a buck, while NEM rose just 1/4.  Volume was average.  Perhaps this is the beginning of a rally in the gold shares for a change.  Or not.  We'll have to see how the week closes out.  My January ABX calls gained some ground but that trade is still a loser for me.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we got the Fed out of the way and now we move on to what's next for the stock market.  We still have to deal with the tax issue from Washington, most likely before the end of the year.  I would be looking for near term weakness for the stock indices and then we'll see where we go from there.  We'll see how the foreign markets react to what Big Ben had to say today.   

Overbought yet continuing higher as the Dow gained 78 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  We'll get the Fed tomorrow and we'll see what happens with that.  Obviously the trend remains up.  We just got through the 50 day moving average on the major stock indices.  That's a positive moving forward.  Perhaps we are beginning the Santa Claus rally.  Of course, that could all change tomorrow.  GE was up 1/8 on good volume.  No trades there for now.  Gold was lower by about 5 bucks on the futures despite a weaker US dollar.  Gold and the dollar have not had their usual relationship lately and that is troublesome going forward.  The XAU lost 1/2 today.  ABX, GG and NEM were mixed with fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  Gold will probably move off of the Fed announcement tomorrow.  That should give us the near term direction for the precious metal.  We'll have to see how the gold shares react.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The stock indexes continue higher as the rally lives on.  Overbought, staying there and that is a condition that lasts in bull moves.  Gold seems to be dead money at the moment.  Unless we see some kind of move following the Fed, that could be the case for a while.  If gold can't rally on a weaker US dollar then something is wrong somewhere.  My January ABX calls remain losers.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.    

Still a meandering market as the Dow gained 14 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  Waiting for some kind of catalyst one way or the other.  The Fed meets this week and maybe they can get things going.  However the market seems to be on hold until Washington figures out the tax situation.  This could go on until the end of the month.  Technically the stock indices are short term overbought.  The summation index does continue higher.  GE lost a few cents on the trading day and the volume was very light.  Getting to the 50 day moving average here.  Gold was up $8 on the futures as the US dollar was weaker today.  The XAU rose a couple points.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume.  Perhaps we'll see something out of the Fed to get gold moving to the upside.  The technicals for the gold shares are short term oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not the most dynamic trading environment with just less than 2 weeks to go in the December option cycle.  However the rally that started in mid-November remains intact.  Gold is perhaps putting in a short term double bottom here but we will need to see the volume pick up to the upside for this to be true.  I'm still holding my January ABX calls at a loss.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas action tonight and go from there.

The employment report was better than expected and the Dow rose 81 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  It was a mixed market once again as the NASDAQ finished the session lower.  The Dow has been leading things here and that usually isn't a bullish sign.  We started the morning off higher and then just drifted for the rest of the day.  I really don't see any conviction to this rise in prices recently.  But you can't argue with price and we are moving higher.  The summation index remains positive as well.  GE was up a nickel on very light volume.  Still below the 50 day moving average here.  Gold was up 3 bucks on the futures and the US dollar was higher today as well.  The XAU was up 1 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume.  I'm still holding the January ABX calls at a loss for now.  However I've been waiting for some type of rally in the gold shares and it hasn't happened.  Oversold on the gold shares and they are simply moving sideways or lower.  I will have to see some type of positive action next week or I will take the loss.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The employment report came and went.  It wasn't really a market mover.  The bigger cap stocks are in the lead here and more often than not that precedes a decline in the overall stock indexes.  Not always but the odds lean that way from my experience.  So I would be careful on the long side here.  Gold isn't really doing anything and that isn't helping my case with the January ABX calls.  6 weeks left in that trade but it isn't looking like it will be a winner.  There's really only a couple of weeks left of regular trading before the holidays take effect.  It looks like I am going to have to dump that trade as the final loser of the year.  The weekend is here and it's time for a break.     

Drifting higher before the employment report as the Dow gained 39 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  We closed almost at the high for the day and that is sometimes bullish going forward.  The summation index continues higher as well.  We'll see what happens tomorrow but the market has the feel of wanting to move higher.  GE was up 1/8 on lighter volume.  Still below the 50 day moving average here but the chart is looking constructive right now.  Of course that could all change tomorrow.  Gold was up around $8 on the futures despite a good gain in the US dollar.  This relationship hasn't been correlating as usual lately.  The XAU was up 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM were little changed either way on light volume.  We'll see if we get some kind of move in gold tomorrow off of the employment report.  But like I have mentioned earlier, gold at the moment could just be dead money.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll see what the reaction is to the employment numbers and go from there.  Still overbought short term on the stock indexes but that condition could last for a while if we are in rally mode.  Tomorrow will go a long way in determining that.  My January ABX calls are way in the red and a decision on dumping them could come tomorrow.  Looks like just another loser at this point.  On to tomorrow. 

A mixed bag today as the Dow gained 82 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The overall market did not fare as well.  The S&P 500 only gained 2 points and the NASDAQ was negative.  Still waiting on Fridays jobs numbers.  The summation index continues higher but the S&P 500 is stalling at the 50 day moving average.  We should get a clear direction of things are Friday.  Hopefully at least.  GE rallied today, up 1/3 on average volume.  I still have no trading ideas here.  Gold finished the day just about flat on the futures as the US dollar had a bit of a rise.  The XAU got clobbered, down 6 1/2.  Most of this was due to FCX.  But the gold shares reversed as well.  ABX off 3/4, GG and NEM down 1 1/8.  Volume was average.  No love for the gold shares here and it looks like I will have to abandon the January ABX call trade.  It is an over 50% loser at the moment.  Unless there is a reversal on the gold shares after the employment report, I'll probably exit this trade.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  The over the counter market was weak and that is not a positive going forward.  The short term technicals remain in the overbought zone for the stock indices.  The gold shares look as though they are breaking down after todays price action.  That will not help any gold share call trades and it looks like I'll have to add another loser to the 2012 trading ledger.  I'll give this trade until Friday but I'll need to see some type of reversal to stick around.  We'll keep an eye on what happens overseas tonight and go from there.

Another day of going nowhere as the Dow lost 14 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  Not much else to say about today as we wait for the employment report on Friday.  It is curious that the US dollar has been heading lower here and we cannot get some type of stock market rally.  The summation index continues higher though.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was average.  No trades there for now.  Gold was lower again today despite the weaker US dollar.  This is not the usual relationship.  The precious metal futures were off $25.  The XAU however was actually up 1/8.  ABX and GG showed fractional gains, while NEM had a fractional loss.  Volume was average for the gold shares.  Perhaps we are at the beginning of the gold shares starting to outperform the metal itself.  But one day doesn't make a trend and it is probably just wishful thinking on my part.  I still own the January ABX calls at a loss.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not exactly sure where the stock indices head from here but the technicals still remain overbought short term.  We are probably being held hostage by the waiting game for Friday.  We are also at the mercy of the headline risk out of Washington.  But that could move things either way.  So we stay tuned and keep a close watch on things.  Gold hasn't been acting well with the weaker US dollar and that is a problem going forward.  We will need to see gold hold the $1680 level or things will most likely head south rather quickly.  Hasn't happened yet.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A weak beginning to December as the Dow fell 60 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We are due for some downside to work off the overbought condition of the stock indices.  The question is if it turns into a retest of the November lows.  The summation index continues to the upside and that is a positive.  All eyes will be on the employment numbers Friday but that may not be as reliable as usual due to the big east coast storm last month.  GE was off 1/3 on light volume.  If GE is a precursor for the overall market as it usually is, then we will be heading lower this week.  If todays action is any indication.  Gold was up 7 bucks, which wasn't much considering the drop in the US dollar.  The XAU followed the overall market lower, down 3 1/3.  ABX off 3/4, GG fell 1 1/4 and NEM dropped 1 3/8.  Volume was relatively better in the gold shares and that is a negative.  When the US dollar is lower and the gold shares can't rally off of that, then we are most likely heading lower.  My January ABX calls are still in the red and losing more money.  Perhaps it is time to say goodbye to this trade but I will give it until the end of the week.  The gold shares would have to turn around soon to keep this trade viable.  Because at this point they look like dead money.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've started the week lower for the stock indexes.  No beginning of the month money flows today.  Could be an interesting week.  Gold isn't looking so good after todays non action.  Could be that I will have to book the loss in the January ABX call trade and move on.  We'll see.  It hasn't been a good trading year for me and this trade would simply add to that fact.  We'll keep an eye on what happens overnight and take it from there.

Another choppy session as we were negative for most of the day.  The Dow managed a gain of 3 points on better than average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We basically ended the month in a holding pattern.  The summation index continues higher but we remain overbought in the stock indices.  We've had an OK rise since the lows of November but I don't see any big moves one way or the other coming up.  But what do I know?  The market as always will go where it wants.  I think we need to see some kind of decline before we can move higher.  GE was flat on the day with average volume.  The short term up trend line remains intact here.  Gold fell again today, off $16 on the futures.  The US dollar finished trading unchanged.  The XAU dropped 1 2/3.  ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM was flat on the day.  Volume was light.  My January ABX calls are still in the red.  I'll need to see some positive price movement from ABX in the beginning of December or this will be another loser.  Oversold on a weekly basis for ABX.  The daily technicals are about mid range.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are on to December.  The so called fiscal cliff is all over the media but it is just talk.  We need to listen to the markets.  Overbought right now but we could stay that way if this rally is for real.  The jury is still out on that.  We should see some positive beginning of the month money flows for stocks.  Gold had a negative week and we will need to see it turn around next week to negate the bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly candlestick chart.  That is something to keep an eye on.  Plenty of economic data out next week topped off by the Friday employment report.  I'll be going over the charts this weekend as usual.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A choppy session today as the Dow finished the day with a gain of 36 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Overbought both short and medium term on some of the technicals for the stock indices.  The over the counter stocks are outperforming at the moment and that usually means higher prices going forward.  However we need to work off some of the overbought condition before going higher in my opinion.  I do not think that this will be a straight line up, it rarely is.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was light.  No trades in GE for now.  The gold futures rose $10 today as the US dollar was slightly weaker.  The XAU was up 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM moved fractionally one way or the other on very light volume.  Not much action in the gold shares today as we are just trying to close out the month here.  My January ABX calls remain in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  November will close out with the trading tomorrow.  A lot of price movement during the month but not much progress either way for the stock indexes.  We'll have to wait and see what happens in December.  Gold is going to end the month with very little progress as well.  The gold shares however, were well off of their best levels for the month.  This relationship needs to change if the January ABX call trade is going to turn a profit.       

It was a one day reversal to the upside today as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The Dow gained 107 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  I was expecting a bit more weakness than what we have seen.  But I could be wrong and often am.  We should move off of the GDP report tomorrow.  End of the month coming on Friday.  The technicals for the stock indices are heading to overbought.  GE was up 1/4 on light volume.  We got the same type of intra day reversal here as well.  We'll see if we get any follow through tomorrow.  Gold took a hit today.  The futures were off over $25.  The US dollar closed a bit lower after being higher early on.  The XAU followed the overall stock market higher by 1 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on average volume.  One day doesn't make a trend but it was nice to see from the bullish angle that the gold shares outperformed the precious metal for a change.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A bullish reversal for the stock indexes today.  We'll see if it can carry over for tomorrow.  I don't think that we have seen the end of the near term weakness yet though.  We'll see.  Not a good day for gold but I am still in the bullish camp here going forward.  Perhaps it will turn around tomorrow.  That's a guess as usual.  However the technicals for gold have turned down on the daily chart.  We'll keep an eye on what happens overnight and wait for the GDP revision tomorrow morning. 

Heading lower today and that isn't unexpected as the Dow fell 89 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We are working off the short term overbought condition of the stock indexes.  I would guess that the recently made lows would hold any decline but that is just a guess.  The summation index is still moving in a positive direction.  I feel as though we are simply taking a rest here but I do not expect any huge rally anytime soon either.  GE was off almost a 1/4 on lighter volume.  Nothing new to report here.  Gold fell $7 on the futures as the US dollar posted gains today.  The XAU dropped 3 3/4.  ABX off 3/4, GG fell 1 7/8 and NEM shed 1/3.  Volume was average for the gold shares.  The ABX January calls that I own continue to lose value.  Plenty of time for this trade to work out and I will hold these options at least into December.  However I would like to see the price direction turn around at some point this week.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A couple of down days to start the week and I would not be surprised if the weakness continued just a bit more.  We could be moving into a sideways trading range but only time will tell on that.  Gold fell a bit today but we are still above the rising trend line that began at the beginning of the month.  I would prefer to see the gold stocks taking the lead here but it hasn't happened yet.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We are expecting some weakness near term and we got some today as the Dow fell 42 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  It was a mixed bag though because the NASDAQ actually closed higher on the day.  We were off over 100 points on the Dow during the session.  The summation index is now headed higher.  I still think we will get some more downside at some point this week.  After that, who knows?  Not a lot of data out this week but we will get the 1st revision to the 3rd quarter GDP report.  GE was flat on the day but the volume was pretty good.  We held the 200 day moving average here and that's a positive.  Gold didn't do much today and neither did the US dollar.  The precious metal futures lost a couple of bucks.  The XAU sold off early but only lost 1/3 on the day.  ABX, GG and NEM all lost around 1/3 on light volume.  The gold shares are following the overall market at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'd expect the stock indices to take a rest this week but I could be wrong.  The rally last week was on light volume and that is not a positive going forward.  We do have the end of the month coming up on Friday.  Gold is probably due for some backing and filling as well.  I would like to see the gold shares take the lead here but it hasn't happened yet.  My January ABX calls are still in the red.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets overnight and take it from there.   

It was a very interesting half session today as the Dow roared ahead by 172 points.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive and the volume was extremely light.  Not your typical holiday half session plodding along.  It was however, a very light volume levitation all week.  Not to be trusted in my opinion.  I would not be surprised by some type of pull back early next week.  I would expect it.  GE was up 1/3 and the volume wasn't too bad.  Perhaps that bodes well for the overall market here.  That's a guess as usual.  No trades in GE for now.  Gold had a decent day as well on a weaker US dollar.  Perhaps there will be some good news out of Europe soon.  That could be what the dollar is signaling.  At any rate, the precious metal futures were up over $20.  The gold shares lagged again though as the XAU only gained 3 points.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on very light volume.  My January ABX calls are still in the red but by not as much.  I'll be holding on to this position at least into next month barring a catastrophe.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A nice upside week for the stock indices but the volume was anemic.  It's hard to trust light volume rallies.  But who knows?  Maybe this is the beginning of something sustained for the bulls.  I think the jury is still out though.  I'm not looking for a good year for the overall stock market next year but I'm wrong as much or more than I'm right lately.  Gold has started to move higher, perhaps back to the resistance at $1800.  I need to see the gold shares take the lead here though, for the ABX trade to work out.  Plenty of time for that trade but there is the possibility that we'll see plenty of end of the year tax loss selling there.  Just a guess as usual.  It's a holiday weekend as time to put the markets aside for a while.  We'll get back to it Monday morning. 

A drift higher as the Dow gained 48 points on holiday light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index should now be moving higher.  Not much to make of todays action.  You have to simply sit tight and wait for next week for the markets direction.  We are getting short term overbought on some technical indicators but not all.  GE was flat and the volume was light.  It is again the same wait around type of action.  We'll see more of the same on Friday.  Gold was up about $5 on the futures as the US dollar didn't do much today.  The XAU gained 2 1/3.  ABX, GG and NEM were all up around 1/2 and the volume was light.  The gold shares did better than the metal today but you can't read much into that during a week like this.  My ABX January calls are still in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It is looking like a positive week for the stock indices but the volume is light.  So I would expect some negative action perhaps sometime early next week.  I'm not saying that we are going to fall apart or anything like that but we are not going to go up in a straight line.  Gold has held up OK this week but I'd like to see another run at $1800 soon.  I'll be holding on to the ABX January calls into December and then we'll see where things go from there.  Enjoy the holiday.