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Thursday, January 03, 2013

Digesting the recent gains today as the Dow fell 21 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  After moving straight up around 500 points, some consolidation is to be expected.  A larger pull back isn't expected for now.  But that doesn't mean it won't happen.  The Fed minutes released today implies the soft money policy might end sooner rather than later.  That would be a negative going forward.  However we are in a very positive time frame calendar wise.  My feeling is that we will stay with a positive bias into the January option expiration.  We'll see what happens with the employment report tomorrow.  GE was off 1/4 on good volume.  GE is not acting well here and has been stopped at its declining tops line that began in October.  I am considering the January GE calls here though.  I could be wrong.  Gold had a tough day as the futures fell $14 and another $10 in the aftermarket.  The US dollar rallied.  The news of the Fed minutes pushed gold down and the dollar up.  The gold/dollar inverse relationship is back in place.  The XAU fell 6 1/3.  ABX down a buck, GG lost almost 2 and NEM slipped 1 1/4.  Volume was average.  My idea for the January ABX calls was wrong.  Of course things could turn around tomorrow with a weak employment report but I'm inclined to look elsewhere for the next trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got the huge rally after the tax deal.  Now it will be important to see what happens from here.  The technicals imply higher prices after a breather.  I might wait things out for a few days and then try the OEX calls for January.  Or not.  We'll see what the employment report brings.  Gold was weak today and I expected more money to flow into there due to the beginning of the new year.  I'm laying off any trades there for now.  We'll look for the foreign market reaction to the Fed minutes if there is one and move on to Fridays employment report. 

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