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Monday, January 28, 2013

A slight move lower today as the Dow fell 12 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The stock indices are overdue for a pause or decline here but we are probably in a waiting pattern until the Fed announcement on Wednesday.  No reason to think the recent momentum rally is over.  We're still overbought on both a short and medium term basis.  I am still thinking that it is possible to see some volatility this week since it has been quiet for some time now.  We'll see.  GE was up almost 1/4 and the volume was good.  My February GE calls are in the black as GE broke out and continues higher.  I probably should have bought more contracts but hindsight is usually never wrong.  In fact you could probably buy those same calls now and still show a profit before expiration.  I'm going to try and hold on until GE reaches $23.  Gold fell again today, off about $4 on the futures.  The US dollar didn't do much today.  The XAU dropped another 1 2/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light to average volume.  My February ABX calls are negative and have lost over 1/2 of their value.  I'll wait for the Fed announcement and go from there on this trade.  This was a loser from the start and I probably should have taken the loss early and been done with it.  We broke out of the consolidation to the downside and getting the calls there was a mistake.  I'll look for a snap back to the breakout to dump this trade for a loss.  May or may not happen.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The markets are extended and have been for at least a couple of weeks.  I'm not going to guess when it will end because I haven't been able to yet.  So enjoy the ride.  Gold is going nowhere and the gold stocks have tanked.  My only hope for the ABX trade at this point is some type of rally off of the Fed announcement, followed by a weak jobs report.  Hope has no place in trading.  Tomorrow should be more of the same for the markets as we wait for the Fed.    

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