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Wednesday, October 30, 2019

The market rallied on the Fed as the Dow rose 115 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues higher.  We were lower for much of the session pre-Fed but then moved up in the final two hours.  Rates were lowered again and chairman Powell afterward said what the market wanted to hear.  The S&P remains short term oversold and staying that way.  It looks like we could see some more rally tomorrow on the AAPL and FB earnings that were announced after the bell.  I canceled my orders for the SPY November puts.  We've broken the resistance and the volume is decent.  Markets can simply stay overbought for extended periods of time and that is the situation we find ourselves in today.  I may still try the SPY puts again before the end of the week or early next week.  GE was up a buck on extremely heavy volume.  The street liked the earnings.  Gold bounced around on the Fed today.  The futures finally finished with a gain of $8.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had positive fractional gains on better volume.  The gold shares sold off but came back up off of their lows after the Fed speech.  More overbought than oversold here but not dramatically so.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX continues to drop and remains oversold.  This is no doubt positive for stocks but it can't go on forever.  Regardless, the S&P should continue to rise with declines probably being shallow as long as the VIX remains below the 16 level.  The TRAN and RUT were both lower today but both came up form the lows of the session.  The breadth is the only thing lacking in this run to new highs for the market.  At some point that will catch up with the rally but the question is when?  We've still got the jobs report on Friday to digest but at this rate it will be viewed as a positive no matter what the numbers are.  I'm not sure why I don't trust this rally but I don't.  Technically, the picture is positive despite being overbought for so long.  I'll look things over again tonight.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed in last nights trade.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

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