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Thursday, October 03, 2019

We got a bounce today as the Dow was up by 122 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving lower.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The market sold off early in the morning but made it all the way back and closed near the highs for the session.  For now all we can say is that it's a bounce because the summation index is still moving down.  Tomorrows employment report could turn things back down.  I think that I'll wait and see if we make it back to the declining tops line on the S&P 500.  At that point I'll maybe try the SPY October puts.  That line is still pretty far from where we are.  I also think that the trades here for the S&P need to be short and sweet.  GE was up twenty cents on good volume.  Gold rose $5 as the US dollar was a bit weaker.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on OK volume.  The gold shares haven't followed gold here lately as they were before.  The outperformance of the gold shares previously was a strong positive for the precious metal complex.  Now that dynamic has changed.  I do still like the gold shares longer term and have kept open my order for the GDX January calls.  However the pinching of the Bollinger bands on gold has me concerned if we break hard to the downside.  Hasn't happened yet but I'm keeping an eye on it.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is overbought and did reverse today.  That is a plus for the bulls.  RUT managed to turn up today as well.  But we aren't out of the woods by any means as of yet.  I will say though that some of my medium term tools have reached a point where a bottom could form.  But we'll have to see how the week closes.  Tomorrow should be interesting.  The weekly indicators for the S&P are mid-range, so there's still room to go lower there.  Short term is oversold.  Without a clear signal, I'm inclined to wait things out until next week.  Europe and Asia were lower, we'll see if they bounce tonight as well.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.  

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