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Wednesday, October 23, 2019

The market continues to simply hang around here, just shy of new all time highs.  Is it a top or a consolidation before we break out?  The Dow rose 45 points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  We remain short term overbought for the major averages.  Bad news for the semiconductor sector didn't stick.  The market climbed in the final hour.  Yesterdays bearish candlesticks look like they're a precursor for sideways action instead of a decline.  No new market moving headlines today.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold was up a few bucks while the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU added a point while GDX rose 1/4.  Volume was average.  I'm still trying to figure out which way the precious metals are going to go here.  My open order for the GDX January calls remains out there.  We do have the Fed in a week and I do not think that they will be cutting rates again at this particular meeting.  That is my best guess as of today.  That would not be bullish for the precious metals and I am considering canceling my order before the announcement.  I could be wrong of course but I have to consider all the possibilities.  If the Fed stands pat I do believe that we'd see a sell off in stocks.  I my try the SPY November puts ahead of the meeting if we continue to be overbought.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains below the 16 level and volatility has taken a break for now.  That isn't the usual October pattern but it is for now.  So for now it looks like I'll just let this week go by and try to trade off of the Fed next week.  Europe and Asia were mixed with muted price action despite the Brexit delay.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight trading.

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