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Wednesday, October 02, 2019

No doubt the direction now as the Dow fell 494 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  RUT has led the way down and it wasn't wrong.  The question now turns to how low do we go?  You can make a case for a double top on the S&P 500.  If that's the case then we're going much lower, perhaps down to the 2700 level or so.  The 200 day moving average might be the first resting place and that's around 50 S&P points lower.  We are short term oversold for the major stock averages but may simply stay that way.  I'm not sure if I will look for a place to try and play a bounce.  Perhaps waiting for a bounce to short is the way to go.  I'd expect more volatility on Fridays jobs report.  GE fell a dime on average volume.  Gold found buyers and rose $20 back above the $1500 level.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU added a buck and GDX rose 1/2.  Volume was good.  The gold shares didn't follow the metal with the same zest as it recently has.  I did place an order for the GDX January calls but it will take a drop to get filled.  I'm now also considering the GDX November calls as the trading environment has changed in the past couple of sessions.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX climbed above 20 today and remains short term overbought.  This is another reason that I believe that a short term bounce is inevitable.  But the timing remains a problem as usual.  I also don't have the guts to try anything ahead of Fridays employment report.  Probably the prudent path would be to wait and see if the S&P 500 gets to its 200 day moving average and perhaps try the bounce there.  For SPY that would be around the 281 level.  However keep in mind that the volatility level has risen and trades should probably have a short time frame, especially for the S&P 500.  We are headed lower it's just a matter of how much.  October is already living up to its reputation.  The Bollinger bands are beginning to pinch on the gold and gold share charts.  That implies a big move is coming.  Which way is the question but I'm banking on the upside.  The short term technical indicators have started to turn back up for both gold and the gold shares as well.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight and I'd expect more of the same tonight.  We'll keep an eye on things.   

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