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Thursday, October 17, 2019

It was a positive session on Wall Street today as the Dow rose 24 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now moving higher.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow but we did come off of the best levels of the day.  Short term overbought and staying that way.  That is the sign of a rally.  I'm expecting new all time highs in the S&P 500, perhaps next week.  No big headlines today and that is another plus.  We haven't had any earnings disasters yet either.  So the trend is for higher prices until further notice.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Gold finished with just a slight gain as the US dollar was much lower on the day.  The XAU was up 1 3/4, while GDX added over 1/3 on lighter volume.  The gold shares out performing gold is a plus for the bulls.  Meanwhile my open order for the GDX January calls won't get filled unless we see some weakness in the gold shares price.  The short term technical indicators have turned back up for GDX.  I may be too late for this trade but I am not going to adjust my price higher.  Earnings will be due out next week for GOLD and NEM.  This will affect GDX one way or the other.  I still like the idea for the longer term gold share calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains oversold and appears to be putting in a bottom here on the daily chart.  That would imply weaker prices ahead but if that does occur I do not think that it is the beginning of a new down trend.  I would view it as a pause before higher prices.  My bullish stance here is backed by more than one indicator that I watch.  The positive seasonality is a plus as well.  As I have said, unless we all of a sudden get a negative headline, I'm looking for higher prices.  Expiration Friday is on tap for tomorrow.  Asia was lower with the exception of Hong Kong.  Europe was generally lower as well.  We close out the trading week tomorrow.

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