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Friday, October 11, 2019

We saw a big rally today as some type of trade deal is going to be announced.  The Dow gained 320 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This will turn the summation index around.  The Dow was up over 500 points but we saw a quick sell off in the final half hour of a couple hundred points.  Not exactly sure what that was.  Many of the major averages broke through the short term resistance trend lines including the S&P 500.  My bearish leaning stance is now over.  Look to purchase calls on weakness going forward unless something comes out of the blue over the weekend.  The technical indicators for the S&P 500 still have room to rise on a short term basis.  Option expiration week generally has a positive bias as well.  GE was up 1/3 on good volume.  Gold fell $5 but came back up off of its lows for the session.  The US dollar was lower as well.  I'm thinking that some of the flight to safety plays were taken off on the report of a trade deal.  The XAU fell 3 1/4, while GDX dropped a bit over a point.  Volume was heavy.  Resistance lines held for the gold shares.  The short term technical indicators have rolled back down here.  The medium term as well, with room to go lower.  I'm still leaving my GDX January call option ticket out there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The tone of the market was positive today despite the late drop.  If the US/China trade deal holds up over the weekend, I would expect more upside on Monday.  The VIX has now closed below the 16 level and I believe that will mean that the rally has legs.  New all time highs for the S&P soon?  We'll see.  The volume picked up today and that is a plus.  Things are now looking positive for the stock market on a technical basis.  Of course the next headline could change things but for now it appears that the bulls will be in control.  I'll be checking all the charts over the weekend.  With only five days to go in the October option cycle, any SPY trade will have to quick with the increased risk and lack of time.  Europe and Asia finished the week with gains on the trade news.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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