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Friday, October 04, 2019

The bounce continued or perhaps we can call it a rally now as the Dow jumped 372 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  Todays action should stall the summation index from moving lower.  The jobs report was in line with expectations but it appears the market is pricing in another rate cut happening soon.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P have turned up.  The drawback today was the low volume.  We are also almost at the near term resistance of around 296 on the SPY.  However we cannot ignore the strength of the price movement in the past two days.  It looks like the market is going to go test all time highs again and soon.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was average.  Gold was off a couple bucks and the US dollar finished little changed.  The gold shares followed the market higher though and that's bullish there.  The XAU was up 1 3/4, while GDX gained almost 2/3.  Volume was average.  The short term indicators have turned up here as well.  I'm leaving in my open order for some GDX January calls but don't expect a fill anytime soon.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX has rolled back over but remains above the 16 level.  There is plenty of room to move lower on the short term indicators here.  We have snapped back to the violated up trend line on the NASDAQ.  Another upside day will negate the breakdown that we had there.  The up trend line in the S&P 500 that began in June has held.  So now I will have to question the wisdom of my idea to buy the SPY October puts when we reach resistance, probably on Monday morning.  Perhaps if the volume is light again it might be worth a try but it seems that the market tone has changed in a hurry here.  Yes, we're still at risk of the next headline one way or the other.  However we've seen quite a jump in the past two sessions and that's been just the opposite of the previous two sessions before.  So I'm not exactly sure what to make of what's going on.  I will check all the charts over the weekend and decide what to do.  Hopefully.  Europe and Asia were higher to close the week with the exception of Hong Kong.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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