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Tuesday, October 08, 2019

More downside action today as the Dow fell 314 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  We closed almost at the low for the day and that is not a positive.  We started the day with a gap to the downside.  The Fed chairman spoke and it did move the market higher for a while.  However things rolled back over in the last couple of hours as the trade talks haven't even started yet but the rhetoric has.  My idea of the SPY October puts has passed its entry point as it is too late now.  I'm not sure how low we go here.  Things would have to turn around quickly to change that assessment.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock averages have rolled back down.  GE was off 1/4 on average volume.  Gold rose over $10 on the futures in a flight to safety.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU was up two points, while GDX gained 3/4.  Volume was good.  My open order for the GDX January calls remains out there but it won't be filled anytime soon.  I have a limit order and the price continues to move away from my limit.  I am not going to chase this as there remains plenty of time for some type of decline for the gold shares.  That said, I may have to adjust my thinking to what is going on here.  Perhaps gold is getting ready to start moving gain.  mentally I'm feeling OK.  Missed trades are always a pain.  But you've got to keep moving and look for the next one.  The VIX closed above the twenty level and is getting overbought again.  However in decent downside moves, it can remain overbought.  The S&P 500 is once again on the verge of breaking the up trend line that began in June.  If that happens we could get to support at 2825 in a hurry.  The next support is 100 points lower.  I'm not saying that will happen here but it could.  Any positive news on the US/China trade front will send the market soaring higher but we haven't seen any of that yet.  It may not even occur.  We'll stick with lower prices as long as the summation index continues down.  But it's a market that is moving both ways with a vengeance, so it's a tricky place to be.  I'll consider my next move overnight.  Asia was higher and Europe lower last night.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.   

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