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Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Moving higher today as the Dow gained 237 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn back up here.  Getting short term overbought on the technical indicators for the major averages.  However there is still room for some more upside.  Headlines are not driving things at the moment.  The technical expectation is for higher prices and that is what we're getting.  New all time highs are within reach.  perhaps the positive expiration week bias will get us there.  GE was up over 1/8 on lighter volume.  Gold is losing its luster and was off a dozen today.  The US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU was down almost 2 1/2, while GDX shed 7/8.  Volume was good.  We are now short term oversold for the gold shares and right at the lower Bollinger band.  I adjusted down my open order for the GDX January calls.  But we are getting to the moment of truth.  It's entirely possible that gold and the gold shares could break down here.  The contracting Bollinger bands imply a big move and it could go either way.  I'm leaving the option order out there but there is a chance that it could be the wrong move.  I am long term positive on this sector though as the longer range charts have bullish patterns.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is oversold but also now way below the 16 level and that is bullish for the stock market.  Unless we get some negative headline out of the blue, expect new all time highs shortly.  Probably in the NASDAQ indices first and then followed by the S&P.  That's my guess at the moment.  The TRAN and RUT are lagging now but they may even make it back to record levels.  We are also just about to enter the seasonal positive period of November to April.  Things are looking up for stocks in my view.  There will be some earnings disappointments of course.  But overall it appears that we're heading higher.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trading.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.   

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