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Friday, October 25, 2019

The market moved higher today as the Dow gained 152 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  We almost closed at a new record high for the S&P 500.  It did set anew intra-day high but then backed off.  Good earnings and positive US/China feedback propelled stocks higher.  We are still short term overbought for the major averages.  In rallies we remain that way.  If we get through the resistance here on good volume the market will go much higher.  If we struggle our way from here, I may try the SPY November puts ahead of the Fed announcement on Wednesday.  The VIX continues lower and that means the rally has some staying power in my view.  However I would not rule out a short sell off if the news on Wednesday isn't what the market wants.  GE was up a nickel on light volume.  Gold was up a couple bucks after being higher early on.  The US dollar was up a bit today as well.  The XAU gained 1 1/2, while GDX rose 1/4.  Volume was good again.  The gold shares finished off of their highs as well.  The price action today was puzzling to me and I canceled my open order for the GDX January calls.  We are approaching short term overbought for the gold shares.  We have broken the down trend lines of resistance for gold and the gold shares.  But the action isn't exactly as robust as you would like to see.  I'll be looking things over the weekend to determine what to do next.  It appears that we may have to head back to the resistance line just broken before a meaningful rally ensues.  I could be wrong.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks like everything is lining up for new all time closing highs next week for the S&P.  If so, I'll be paying close attention to the volume and the breadth.  The wild card is the Fed announcement on Wednesday along with the chairmans speech afterward.  I will probably wait for the GDX trade after that as well.  The TRAN had a good day today with good volume.  Perhaps that will lead the Dow higher as well.  RUT had a positive session as well.  These indices do remain pretty overbought though and that won't last forever.  Plenty of work to do over the weekend.  Europe and Asia were generally higher to finish out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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